View from the Pit – Week 7

Week 7 Schedule (Fantasy Sharks favourites in bold)

Tranent Tigers (4-2) – (3-3) Earlstonian Bohemians

Bohemians are the early and narrow favourites (-0.81) over the Tigers where they also hold a 3-0 all-time record. Even on paper, this looks like a close game!

The Bohemians and Tigers are evenly matched at QB No 1 and 3 respectively and also at WR where the Tigers are 3rd and the Bohemians 5th. A slip up by either AJ Green or Antonio Brown could be costly to each outfit and with the Bengals travelling to Pittsburgh a nice little intrigue game for Nicky and me to watch on Sunday evening.

The matchup will most likely hinge on both teams anaemic running games (ranked 11th and 12th). The Bohemians group face the 2nd, 3rd and 4th worst RB defences this week whereas the Tigers schedule is less kindly…this looks like the key to victory for the Bohemians.

SanFran-Gordon 69ers (1-5) – (1-5) Pilton Panthers

An almost battle of the basement as the 69ers and Panthers vie for the 2nd and 3rd spots in next years rookie draft. The 69ers suffered a gut punch last week when they lost Aaron Rodgers, but enter this game as early 8 point favourites.

Carson Palmer seems the most likely to take over for Rodgers, but the key to this game will be the RB matchup. The Panthers currently rank 5th in the league at that position whereas the 69ers rank a lowly 10th. If the Panthers can strengthen their QB and TE output then they could be on the way to a turnaround victory.

69ers are 6-1 all-time against the Panthers

Nitten Pickaxe (5-1) – (4-2) Kelso 187s

The Pickaxes unbeaten run finally came to an end last week, and to make matters worse they face a 187s squad who is an early 3 point favourite. The Pickaxe currently lead the league in TE production and their WRs are 2nd, but with Hopkins and Jones on byes the 187s may have found a good week to take advantage. The key to this game will be the new 187s RB pairing of Chris Thompson and Adrian Peterson. If Peterson can roll back the years, then the 187s should enough of an advantage at QB, WR and PK and DT to take the victory.

The 187s are 3-0 all-time against the Pickaxe

Kelso Kestrels (3-3) – (0-6) Jerman Jaguars

It’s predicted as the lowest scoring game of the week with both the Kestrels and Jaguars expected to produce under 95 points each. That would be a surprise for the Jaguars considering they’ve faced the most points this season…but perhaps this is an opportunity to grab that face-saving win?

There are a number of QBs on this weeks waiver wire who will be startable for the Jaguars, including Carson Palmer, and with waiver sensation Deshaun Watson missing the Kestrels may have to rely on the disappointing Jameis Winston.

They key to this game will be the improving Kestrel RBs and their management of their 10th ranked WR and TEs group against the Jaguars 6th ranked WR and RB groups. Matchups will be key with each teams RBs facing tough opponents and the Jaguars star WR missing his QB.

Tweedbank Pirates (4-2) – (4-2)Kelsae Avengers

The matchup of the week featuring the leagues top 2 scoring outfits. Both teams will be keen to see a victory in this matchup with the Pirates fending off an ascending Earthquakes and the Avengers chasing an impressive Fog. The Pirates are early 13 point favourites.

The Avengers boasts the most impressive RB grouping in the league, but the No3 ranked Pirates are not far behind with a more balanced outfit overall. The key to this game will lie not in the Kareem Hunt vs Todd Gurley clash, but rather the Doug Baldwin/Alshon Jeffrey vs Larry Fitzgerald/Pierre Garcon clash. Each stable faces tough matchups, but the 49ers-Cowboys clash could be the decider.

The teams are 1-1 all-time against each other

Earlston Earthquakes (3-3) – (4-2) Fog on the Tyne

Another close matchup in this weeks schedule sees the Earthquakes take on the Fog as early 1 point favourites. Fog on the Tyne has been one of the most consistent teams in the league boasting above 100 point performances every week. The Earthquakes have been less consistent, with 2 worst week performances as well as last weeks record-setting 171.6.

The key to this clash will be the Fogs 4th ranked WRs against the Earthquakes 12th ranked. If the Earthquakes can find 25 points from a combination of Adam Humphries, Devonte Parker, Tyrell Williams, Jeremy Maclin and Emmanuel Sanders then their No2 RB outfit should do enough to run them to victory.

Fog on the Tyne hold a 4-2 all-time series record.

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View From The Pit 2017 week 6

Week 6 here already, a big bye week again for some of our teams, but the chance to go clear in all 4 divisions, setting us up for the playoff push in the next month or so. No one is out of it, or guaranteed a spot, but we are getting close to both of those spots with Jimmy and Gav respectively. This week looks likely to change some fortunes at least with the injuries we’ve had, so let’s get going straight away.

 

Pickaxe at Pirates

5-0 Nitten Pickaxe, who hope to extend their 5-game winning streak, face off against the 3-2 Tweedbank Pirates at Gun Knowe Stadium.

 

Nitten Pickaxe were led in week 5 by a 27.20 point effort from DeAndre Hopkins, who snuck past the Kansas City Chiefs defense for 52 receiving yards and 3 receiving TDs. In addition, Odell Beckham was not injured before the start of his week 5 game, and contributed 21.50 points, but he’s now on the injured reserve, which will prevent him from contributing at all this week. Nitten Pickaxe can expect a 20.12 point effort from Jordan Howard in week 6.

 

Tweedbank Pirates were led in week 5 by a 17.40 point effort from Pierre Garcon, who got by the Indianapolis Colts defense for 94 receiving yards. Tweedbank Pirates can expect a 18.73 point effort from Todd Gurley in week 6.

 

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a game for the ages. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, Nitten Pickaxe hold a 2-2-0 all-time series record against Tweedbank Pirates.

 

Pickaxe are riding high, now alone at 5-0 in the league and so near that playoff berth. Have the wheels come off though, the hideous injury to Odell Beckham will leave some difficult waiver dealings to get a few points on the board. Gav’s RBs have had a disappointing week though Wayne Gallman may have been a good pick up to see Gav through the bye weeks. There is some depth at WR to cover OBJs absence, De Andre Hopkins with a few good targets and DeSean Jackson fresh off a good outing. Gav needs to pick up a DST and may also think about a kicker after Mason Crosby missed a couple of PATs last week. Matt Ryan is surely due a good week, and just as well, Eli Manning barely got the Pickaxe through the week 5 bye week, losing 4 WRs in the same game, it would be a brave soul, or a desperate one, who picks him up now in all but the toughest bye week binds.

 

Pirates have faced more than 150 more points than Pickaxe this year, Paul has to trust that 30 extra minus points a game cannot last. A look at the stat sheet shows the Pirates RB squad getting healthy points on the board every week, however first round pick LeSean McCoy is on a bye for week 6 which could be important. Todd Gurley is averaging over 25 a game though – so almost enough for 2 starters on Gav’s tea, that should fill Paul with a bit of confidence. Pirates need a streaming TE for week 6, not too tough to find someone who is capable of a TD or 2, just picking which week that it might go your way that is the problem. Larry Fitzgerald and Pierre Garcon look to have the WR posts in the bag, a choice at flex but any of 3 could see action.

 

The Pirates are perhaps due a bit of luck and the stats say that this is going their way, but Gav’s streak has held this long, and we all hope it continue surely?

 

 

Panthers at Earthquakes

1-4 Pilton Panthers face off against the 2-3 Earlston Earthquakes at The Claudie.

 

Pilton Panthers were led in week 5 by a 20.40 point effort from Aaron Jones, who beat the Dallas Cowboys defense for 125 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD in addition to 9 receiving yards. In addition, Devin Funchess was not injured before the start of his week 5 game, and contributed 18.30 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 6 due to an injured knee, which might severely limit his fantasy production. Pilton Panthers can expect a 15.13 point effort from the Houston Texans Defensive Team in week 6.

 

Earlston Earthquakes were led in week 5 by a 19.30 point effort from Le’Veon Bell, who snuck past the Jacksonville Jaguars defense for 47 rushing yards in addition to 46 receiving yards. In addition, Nick Folk was not injured before the start of his week 5 game, and contributed 2.00 points, but he’s now on the injured reserve, which will prevent him from contributing at all this week. Earlston Earthquakes can expect a 22.55 point effort from Le’Veon Bell in week 6.

 

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be an epic battle. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, Pilton Panthers hold a 3-1-0 all-time series record against Earlston Earthquakes.

 

Last years champs seem to have been a bit quiet this year. They could do with a boost at QB and a bit of luck elsewhere on the board. Jay Ajayi is averaging one of the lowest scores for a first round pick – less than 10 a game, but there are points hidden in here surely, he just has to find them. Mark Ingram is the best scorer but rising star and waiver wire gem Aaron Jones is higher ranked this week and could get a start. Devin Funchess looks like being another great waiver pickup and along with second rounder Michael Thomas and 4th Round Golden Tate should round out the skill positions. Ben Watson could be streamed at TE, but not much chance of Steven Gostkowski getting replaced at kicker any time soon, he’s scoring very well.

 

Earthquakes have faced an enormous 610 points against this year – a full 170 pts more than the Pickaxe boys. Still Cozy is on 2-3 and there must be a few wins sitting in the wings here. What are the quakes doing for kickers, that’s 2 Chris has broken in the last 2 weeks, must be all that standing on one leg in the earthquake, never a good idea. There’s streamers a plenty on the waivers though – stick a pin in somewhere and you’ll have 5-10 pts no problem. Russel Wilson is on a bye so Kirk Cousins will likely get the start unless Chris has a steamer in mind.  Le’Veon Bell and Christian McCafferty look to be in at RB, and Allen and Cohen could fight for the flex spot too. That’s because the Quakes have one of the weaker WR sets in the league, Emmanuel Sanders and Davante Parker likely to start this week. Gronkowski had a bit of a bruise last week, but looks to be back in action for week 6 – guaranteeing a few points there.

 

This looks close on paper, and Rab has the advantage at most of the all-important receiver positions, however, if Gronk is fit that could wipe out all of those Panthers bonus points from one place, I’m plumping for the Quakes this week

 

Jaguars at Tigers

 

0-5 Jerman Jaguars, who hope to end their 5 game losing streak, challenge the 3-2 Tranent Tigers at Polson Park.

 

Jerman Jaguars were led in week 5 by a 15.80 point effort from Kelvin Benjamin, who snuck past the Detroit Lions defense for 58 receiving yards and 1 receiving TD. Jerman Jaguars can expect a 20.75 point effort from Jordy Nelson in week 6.

 

Tranent Tigers were led in week 5 by a 26.20 point effort from Cam Newton, who tore apart the Detroit Lions defense for 355 passing yards and 3 passing TDs. In addition, Travis Kelce was not injured before the start of his week 5 game, and contributed 17.80points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 6 due to an injured concussion , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Tranent Tigers can expect a 19.27 point effort from Antonio Brown in week 6.

 

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a classic showdown. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Jerman Jaguars hold a 3-0-0 all-time series record against Tranent Tigers.

 

Uncharted territory here as Jimmy’s Jags slip to 0-5 – could they miss out on a playoff spot for the first time ever? With Zeke on a bye that could be a possibility. But let’s stop for a minute and look at some numbers, Jags have faced 639 points so far, almost 40 a game more than the Pickaxe, and could have beaten at least a few teams most weeks, so its far from over. Jimmy has also been quite canny with his waiver budget and is now sitting in pole position to pick up any studs that should appear there in any given week. CJ Anderson and Andre Ellington could get the starts at RB without Zeke in action, Jordy Nelson and Kelvin Benjamin at WR. Jordy Nelson looks to be the pick of them, though of course he’s had a week with zero receptions so its not a guarantee to see 10 pts from him. Matt Stafford and Matt Prater should bookend the team though there could well be a streaming DST to take the place of the Jets this week.

 

Tigers picked up Alex Smith in week 2, but so far have not capitalised on that, he’s outscoring Cam Newton by nearly 5 points a game, its no guarantee he’ll get a start this week either, but it must be getting harder to leave him on the side-lines. Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell look to be getting the RB jobs this week, neither has had a great start to the season, but Powell looks the better of the 2 at the moment. Its WR where Nicky really has value, Antonio Brown is averaging a good 20 points a game and that should continue this week. Damaryius Thomas and Rishard Matthews are no real comparison to Brown, but they are still putting up their respectable 10 points a game. Travis Kelce is second only to Gronk this week and should get a few points.

 

Although the rankings lean over to Nicky’s Tigers, a quick look at the numbers shows that really that is only at WR, where he’s just a couple of ranks ahead at WR1 and WR2. Both Jimmy’s RBs outrank Nicky’s top ranked player and I think that will swing it – it’s a first win for the Jags this week.

 

 

Fog at 69ers

3-2 Fog on the Tyne face off against the 1-4 SanFran-Gordon 69ers at Castle Greyskull.

Fog on the Tyne were led in week 5 by a 31.40 point effort from Leonard Fournette, who tore apart the Pittsburgh Steelers defense for 181 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs in addition to 3 receiving yards. In addition, Andy Dalton was not injured before the start of his week 5 game, and contributed 13.32 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 6 due to an injured ankle , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Fog on the Tyne can expect a 17.14 point effort from Stefon Diggs in week 6.

 

SanFran-Gordon 69ers were led in week 5 by a 25.60 point effort from Davante Adams, who snuck past the Dallas Cowboys defense for 66 receiving yards and 2 receiving TDs. SanFran-Gordon 69ers can expect a 23.02 point effort from Aaron Rodgers in week 6.

 

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be an epic battle. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, Fog on the Tyne hold a 4-2-0 all-time series record against SanFran-Gordon 69ers.

 

Although Fog are ‘in the black’ Stuart must be feeling a bit robbed, he’s scoring well and is well over the 110 pts each week, with a couple of standout performances, it’s always a kick in the teeth to lose with the second best score of the week. It’s just Andy Dalton on a bye for Stuart this week. There are no gaps in the starting lineup – everyone once again is ranked in the top ten, but perhaps a bit more depth at RB will be the target for the week, Rob Kelley and Chris Johnson don’t look great, Johnson has in fact just been released, so make that 2 roster spots available! Picking up a QB could wait till the second or third round of waivers as Stuart has plenty cash to spend, there’s certainly no need at WR, where amazingly a #9 WR could be just the fourth choice and bench warming for the week.

 

69ers need to put a lot of hope on Aaron Rogers’ shoulders this week, he’s the only player ranked higher than the equivalent of Stuarts. Mind you that’s really just because Richie has come up against the Fog in maybe the worst possible week. There’s a few top ten and plenty of top 20 players here. Devonta Freeman and Demarco Murray should get things started on the ground and James White looks likely to be one of the only RBs in at flex in the whole league – though of course he gets a fair few points for receptions anyhow. There’s likely a better TE on the waivers than Marcedes Lewis and Richie also needs to find a DST, shouldn’t be too much trouble though.

 

The rankings are by no means an absolute guide, but this week they are all in favour of the Fog, and surely it would be a pretty lucky/unlucky week for all of them to go against him, it’s a win for Stuart.

 

Bohemians at Kestrels

Coming up in a week 6 Earlston Fantasy Football League battle, the 3-2 Earlstonian Bohemians challenge the 2-3 Kelso Kestrels at Shedden Park.

 

Earlstonian Bohemians were led in week 5 by a 30.90 point effort from A.J. Green, who tore apart the Buffalo Bills defense for 189 receiving yards and 1 receiving TD. With Green on bye in week 6, they’ll need to count on their second-string WR to carry the team this week. Earlstonian Bohemians can expect a 21.64 point effort from Tom Brady in week 6.

 

Kelso Kestrels were led in week 5 by a 24.70 point effort from T.Y. Hilton, who tore apart the San Francisco 49ers defense for 177 receiving yards. Kelso Kestrels can expect a 17.94 point effort from Jameis Winston in week 6.

 

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a classic showdown.

 

Bohemians had a rare off week in Tom Brady last week, expect him to come back fighting in week 6. Ameer Abdullah and Tyreek Hill look to be the starting stars at RB and WR, Tevin Coleman probably has the RB2 slot but for WR2 and Flex there’s a wide range of options. Dropping Duke Johnson in week two probably starting to look like a bit of a mistake now, though Tevin Coleman is at least maintaining an above 10 average. He’s back after a bye week rest as well, so maybe some more explosive action from him to come? Ally might be struggling on the waivers tomorrow, he likely wants to replace Jesse James, Robbie Gould and the Steelers for the week, with just 23 bucks left he’ll have to choose wisely or wait till 7 and have very fast fingers.

 

Kestrels have been fighting a rear-guard action for the last couple of weeks, with little chance of wins, but they’ve still posted over 100 pts, which has been capable of a win in the right week, so all hope is not lost for Ryan’s birds. Deshaun Watson is well ranked this week, as are Kyle Rudolph at TE and Lamar Miller at RB. TY Hilton is the only other real likely start this week, but there are possibilities for points most other places too. Jerrick McKinnon is moving up the ranks due to a monster performance last week and if he can repeat that he should be tied is as mainstay RB for the Vikings, but let’s remember that the week before he had a -1, so its all to prove for him.

 

WR2 sand flex could be the difference for the Kestrels, everywhere else Ryan outranks or is pretty close to Ally, but there’s a big gap at those positions, and that could be the difference. Its maybe too close to call, so let’s go with Ryan’s Kestrels who maybe need a bit of luck after a bit of an unlucky start.

 

 

187s at Avengers

4-1 Kelso 187’s, who hope to extend their 3 game winning streak, face off against the 3-2 Kelsae Avengers at Samuel Sawyer Memorial Park.

 

Kelso 187’s were led in week 5 by a 29.74 point effort from Dak Prescott, who got by the Green Bay Packers defense for 251 passing yards and 3 passing TDs in addition to 37 rushing yards. With Prescott on bye in week 6, they’ll need to count on their second-string QB to carry the team this week. Kelso 187’s can expect a 18.62 point effort from Mike Evans in week 6.

 

Kelsae Avengers were led in week 5 by a 34.30 point effort from Melvin Gordon, who beat the New York Giants defense for 105 rushing yards in addition to 58 receiving yards. Kelsae Avengers can expect a 20.92 point effort from Kareem Hunt in week 6.

 

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be an epic battle. In the 2-year history of this rivalry, Kelso 187’s hold a 1-1-0 all-time series record against Kelsae Avengers.

 

187s have maybe found their stride this season. Dak Prescott could be the steal of the draft in round 12, he’s on for a great season, but the dreaded by week is now, so Euan will have to rely on Big Ben to fill the gap. There’s not a standout RB here, though Lynch and Frank Gore seem to be finding a bit of form and are pushing for 10 point averages, look to them both to get a start this week. Mike Evans and Keenan Allen are the real stars here, both with 15 pt. averages or thereabouts. It’s a bit of a step down to find someone to put in at flex, but certainly there are a few options capable of some points. Euan might be looking for some extra depth at WR this week, and there’s a few bucks to play with tomorrow night, a kicking streamer will probably wait till the free agency and the Jags will likely keep their DST spot for at least another week.

 

Stuart has to be happy with the Avengers possible scores, if not their weekly totals. In most weeks he’s been capable of putting 130 pts on the board. Kareen Hunt Melvin Gordon and Doug Martin look to be a formidable running back trio for the Avengers this week, all of them averaging over 15 points a game. With those sort of totals you don’t really need any reception bonus points to boost the score. However, there are some possibilities at WR too, even if the lineup is not nearly as strong. Doug Baldwin and Tyler Locket on bye weeks is just no help with that of course, Alshon Jeffery and Will Fuller should get a few between them. Stuart needs a kicker and may try to trade up from the chiefs DST, there’s unlikely to be anyone better than Delanie Walker for TE though. Avengers only have $40 to play with but they could well get away spending nothing this week.

 

This game has advantages and disadvantages all over, 187s the clear winner at WR  whilst Avengers have it in spades at RB. Those reception points will be useful, and for that reason I’m going with the 187s, but I think it will be close.

 

That’s your lot, still all to play for and nothing to lose.

View From The Pit 2017 – week 5

Week 5 is here, and with it the start of the bye weeks, causing headaches for some whilst giving an easy ride to others.

In week 5 it’s New Orleans, Atlanta, Washington and Denver on Bye weeks, so we can expect some big holes to fill in some of our teams.

Let’s start with the tussle at the bottom:

Jaguars at 69ers

0-4 Jerman Jaguars, who hope to end their 4 game losing streak, challenge the 0-4 SanFran-Gordon 69ers at Castle Greyskull.

Jerman Jaguars were led in week 4 by a 29.90 point effort from Ezekiel Elliott, who got by the Los Angeles Rams defense for 85 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD in addition to 54 receiving yards. In addition, Ty Montgomery was not injured before the start of his week 4 game, and contributed 2.80 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 5 due to an injured ribs , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Jerman Jaguars can expect a 17.86 point effort from Ezekiel Elliott in week 5.

SanFran-Gordon 69ers were led in week 4 by a 23.06 point effort from Aaron Rodgers, who snuck past the Chicago Bears defense for 179 passing yards and 4 passing TDs. In addition, Davante Adams was not injured before the start of his week 4 game, and contributed 9.30 points, but he’s listed as doubtful in week 5 due to an injured concussion , which might severely limit his fantasy production.  SanFran-Gordon 69ers can expect a 22.01 point effort from Aaron Rodgers in week 5.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a game for the ages. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, Jerman Jaguars hold a 4-1-0 all-time series record against SanFran-Gordon 69ers.

Jimmy’s Jags have a couple on bye weeks, but still can field a full team this week without waivers. Matt Stafford may get the start over Carson Palmer, but both are in with a shout at a big game this week. Zeke Elliot is still going and had his best game of the season in week 4, expect some points there. Jordy Nelson is on a hot streak for Green Bay with 4 tds in 2 games, so Jimmy will expect more of the same in week 5. Andre Ellington could be an interesting decision for Jimmy, there’s been a lot of positive press for him over the weekend, but he’s still not a guaranteed RB2 and might struggle to get into the team above Ty Montgomery until he proves himself a bit more. Matt Prater and the Eagles look to be good to go this week. Perhaps a streamer at TE for Jimmy if he’s not happy with Safarian-Jenkins?

Richie has 4 players on a bye, but only two of them are really holes. However, Davante Adams is in the concussion protocol and may not be able to suit up so there could be a struggle to get a full team out, expect a pick up of a WR tomorrow to make sure. If he can put a full team out, there’s some points here, Aaron Rogers is ranked #1 for a start. Demarco Murray failed to produce last week due to the run of play, and this week against the chiefs could be a similar game script so Richie would be wise not to rely on points here. James White was always going to be a PPR stud, and 10 receptions is enough to justify a place in most of the league, before he gets any yards at all. Jimmy Graham is not short of targets either and is probably a must start TE. The Seahawks look like a solid start for DST, but there may be a streaming option better than Chris Boswell at kicker.

With Richie’s Bye week woes, this matchup is looking like at can only go one way. Even so, at least that will be the bulk of the byes out of the way and perhaps the 69ers can focus on the rest of the season.

Fog at 187s

3-1 Fog on the Tyne face off against the 3-1 Kelso 187’s at Compton Palace.

Fog on the Tyne were led in week 4 by a 24.50 point effort from Leonard Fournette, who got by the New York Jets defense for 86 rushing yards in addition to 59 receiving yards. In addition, Derek Carr was not injured before the start of his week 4 game, and contributed 9.72 points, but he’s listed as out in week 5 due to an injured back , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Fog on the Tyne can expect a 15.60 point effort from Brandin Cooks in week 5.

Kelso 187’s were led in week 4 by a 29.10 point effort from Greg Zuerlein. In addition, Chris Carson was not injured before the start of his week 4 game, and contributed 9.60points, but he’s now on the injured reserve, which will prevent him from contributing at all this week. Kelso 187’s can expect a 19.55 point effort from Dak Prescott in week 5.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a hard-fought struggle. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Fog on the Tyne hold a 2-1-0 all-time series record against Kelso 187’s.

Fog have a long list of issues this week ,4 on a bye 2 questionables and Derek Carr out with a broken back. However, apart from QB, there is still a whole team to put out so it’s not the disaster that it might have been. In fact, there’s 4 players to put out that rank well within their respective top 10s, Leonard Fournette, Stefon Diggs, Cameron Brate and Justin Tucker are all highly fancied this week, and the rest of the 8 players are within the top 20. Lions might be better replaced by a streamer at DST, but perhaps they’ll have to wait until the QB slot is filled. There’s plenty on the waivers who are capable of a 20-pt. game, but Stuart will have to choose wisely if he wants someone to keep for the whole 6 weeks that Carr could be out, or he’ll end up bankrupting himself on the waivers just to cover, as of course there will be QBs required every week now that the waivers have started.

187s have lost Chris Carson, probably for the rest of the year, that’s a bit of a shame as he seemed to be coming into his own. Chris Thomson is heading into a bye after a bit of a drop week, but apart from that it’s a full go for the 187s. Dak Prescott is flying, and looks like a great pickup from round 12, he should get Euan started with no issues this week. Marshawn Lynch and Wendell Smallwood are not the best RB pairing in the league, but both are capable, and Lynch must be looking to come back from last weeks miserable outing, expect some Beastmode action. Mike Evans and Dez Bryant will more than make up for any weaknesses at RB, and there should be at least 2 TDs between them. Keenan Allen will start at flex if there’s any justice, he could be WR1 in some of our teams. Like others, there might be a streaming kicker, but the Jags could well outperform their lowly ranking as they are coming off two big performances.

This game will, maybe come down to picking the right QB for Stuart – there’s points everywhere else on the board, but evenly matched across, Stuart with and advantage at RB and Euan at WR. Stuarts QB won’t be ranked as highly as the 187s, but there is someone on the waivers who will get a bigger score than Dak. Odds are that the 187s will take it, but its by no means definite.

Avengers at Kestrels

2-2 Kelsae Avengers face off against the 2-2 Kelso Kestrels at Shedden Park.

Kelsae Avengers were led in week 4 by a 16.10 point effort from Kareem Hunt.   Kelsae Avengers can expect a 19.67 point effort from Kareem Hunt in week 5,

Kelso Kestrels were led in week 4 by a 33.72 point effort from Deshaun Watson, who got by the Tennessee Titans defense for 283 passing yards and 4 passing TDs in addition to 24 rushing yards. In addition, Matthews was not injured before the start of his week 4 game, and contributed 9.00 points, but he’s listed as doubtful in week 5 due to an injured thumb , which might severely limit his fantasy production.  Kelso Kestrels can expect a 14.27 point effort from T.Y. Hilton in week 5

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a classic showdown.

All square for both these teams. Stuart has no bye week issues, and has Doug Martin coming back from suspension. Avengers scoring took a wee bit of a tumble last week, and that cost Stuart a valuable win, but really there was no reason for it, just bad luck almost across the board, even Kareem Hunts 16 points looked a bit pedestrian compared to his early season numbers. Never mind though, we’ve got 2 or 3 top 10 RBs, a top 5 TE and Kicker and the rest of the team aint too bad either. Without any bye weeks this should be an easy lineup choice for Stuart, and may allow him to focus waiver attention on the rest of the season.

Kestrels must find a kicker this week, but otherwise it’s not too bad considering all the injury woes. Willie Snead is on a bye, but he’s questionable anyhow, so perhaps some time to recover would be useful. Jameis Winston is going string and has of course already had his unscheduled bye week, so expect him to remain in the lineup for the rest of the year. Lamar Miller looks to be performing around about his third round placing and Joe Mixon as a filler is doing well for Ryan, he looks like he’s only going to get stronger as the season goes on. Ty Hilton is perhaps sliding the other way, not quite living up to round 2 scoring, Ryan needs to hope for another week 3 style effort. Allen Hurns seems to be another good waiver pick and there’s still a few bucks in the kitty for more if necessary – $21 should be enough to secure a player most weeks.

Unfortunately for Ryan, with the injuries and bye weeks he has, facing the Avengers who are effectively at full strength, there’s not too much hope for anything other than an Avengers win. Ryan might be best to think about future games when wavering this week, rather than chasing a win that is unlikely anyhow.

Panthers at Bohemians

1-3 Pilton Panthers challenge the 2-2 Earlstonian Bohemians at Bohemian Park.

Pilton Panthers were led in week 4 by a 22.90 point effort from Michael Thomas, who got by the Miami Dolphins defense for 89 receiving yards and 1 receiving TD. With Thomas on bye in week 5, they’ll need to count on their second-string WR to carry the team this week. In addition, Dalvin Cook was not injured before the start of his week 4 game, and contributed 13.40 points, but he’s listed as out in week 5 due to an injured knee , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Pilton Panthers can expect a 17.45 point effort from Marcus Mariota in week 5.

Earlstonian Bohemians were led in week 4 by a 20.48 point effort from Tom Brady. In addition, Ameer Abdullah was not injured before the start of his week 4 game, and contributed 19.90 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 5 due to an injured ankle , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a hard-fought struggle. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, Pilton Panthers hold a 3-3-0 all-time series record against Earlstonian Bohemians.

Last years champs are struggling a little this year. Rab has 5 players out, at least there’s a space on the roster if Dalvin Cook goes after his injury. Miraculously, there’s still a team to put out and it doesn’t look half bad really. Jay Ajayi is the highlight, for sure, but Golden Tate, Marqise Lee and Shane Vereen are all capable of getting a TD or 2. Texans and Steven Gostkowski could be the Panthers biggest scorers. Marcus Mariota is day to day according to reports so expect Rab to be looking for a QB tomorrow to make sure of being able to put out a lineup.

Bohemians have just Tevin Coleman on a bye so look to be putting out a near full strength lineup. Derek Henry is perhaps a bit of a stretch to be RB2 but he could score for sure. AJ Green, Tyreek Hill and Randall Cobb will get the bulk of the points though – there is a few TDs in that trio for sure. Tom Brady will be busy being Tom Brady at the top of the score sheet and anchors the squad with solid performances every week. Jack Doyle could be replaced with a number of streamers at TE and that’s likely come tomorrow, however with a bit of a hole at RB still and a couple of starters coming to the fore this week, we might wait for free agency to see a change here.

Ally could be lucking out here – though he’s not at optimal strength, the Panthers team is full of holes and this should be a Boho win

Tigers at Pirates

2-2 Tranent Tigers play the 3-1 Tweedbank Pirates at Gun Knowe Stadium.

Tranent Tigers were led in week 4 by a 33.04 point effort from Cam Newton.  Tranent Tigers can expect a 20.51 point effort from Antonio Brown in week 5.

Tweedbank Pirates were led in week 4 by a 34.50 point effort from Todd Gurley.  Tweedbank Pirates can expect a 17.51 point effort from LeSean McCoy in week 5.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be an epic battle. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Tranent Tigers hold a 1-2-0 all-time series record against Tweedbank Pirates.

Tigers have a pretty solid team, it’s just not coming together every week for Nicky. This week could be a problem too, with 4 on a bye, meaning that Nicky needs a kicker to put a full team out, there’s no difficulty in picking up a kicker, but he may have to wait until the bottom of the pile if he wants to strengthen the Tigers skill positions on the waivers tomorrow. Tigers are left with Bilal Powell and Asiah Crowell at RB, not stellar by any means but both names that we’ve seen across the EFFL for a few years, so likely some points at least and a good chance of a TD between them. Antonio Brown leads the WR, Rishard Matthews and Sammy Watkins will be backing up which is a reasonable lineup. Ravens are not ranked too highly at DST, but that’s largely due to coming off a couple of poor games, they were highly tanked before that and Nicky could do worse than hanging on to them this week.

Pirates also need a kicker, so expect either a use of a few dollars to guarantee it, or a race to the buttons after 7 tomorrow. Pauls has a big advantage here as he has his whole budget to play with, so a few dollars to cover bye weeks should be no problem. Then again, he also needs a QB, and that’s a little more important than a streaming kicker – it would be a brave move to leave that to the free agency period, but there will always be someone waiting in the wings who can score 25 pts in any given week, if you can spot them than that FAAB could stay at the max. Todd Gurley and LeSean McCoy should more than make up for the shortcomings of any streamers this week, they are ranked #4 and #5 respectively. Fitzgerald, Landry and Garcon will be unlucky to come away with less than 40 between them too, so maybe that budget can wait?

Tigers have a bit of a mountain to climb here, as long as Paul can find a 15 pt. QB tomorrow I don’t really see a way past the Pirates.

Earthquakes at Pickaxe

2-2 Earlston Earthquakes play the 4-0 Nitten Pickaxe at New Victoria Park.

Earlston Earthquakes were led in week 4 by a 34.60 point effort from Le’Veon Bell.  Fantasy Sharks, Earlston Earthquakes can expect a 19.91 point effort from Le’Veon Bell in week 5.

Nitten Pickaxe were led in week 4 by a 26.70 point effort from DeAndre Hopkins. In addition, Carlos Hyde was not injured before the start of his week 4 game, and contributed 14.50 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 5 due to an injured hip , which might severely limit his fantasy production.  Nitten Pickaxe can expect a 16.83 point effort from Odell Beckham in week 5.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a classic showdown. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, Earlston Earthquakes hold a 1-4-0 all-time series record against Nitten Pickaxe.

Quakes have started a wee streak themselves, and though The Pirates are top of the division, its all square on divisional wins, so expect some competition from within Kirk. Cozy has just Sanders and Ginn on a bye and no injuries for a change. Russel Wilson is coming from two good performances on the last fortnight. Le’Veon Bell is similarly on a bit of a roll. Christian McCaffrey, Devante Parker and Tyrell Williams should get some points up, but will be lucky to keep pace with the two stars above. Gronk looks to bookend the scorecard with another decent 12-20 score. Blair Walsh and the Cardinals defense should at least be positive scores, but will be a wee side order rather than the icing on the cake.

Gav’s Pickaxe are riding high and alone on 4 wins out of four. However, they’ve not faced the toughest of opponents and have yet to make a monster score. In a way that’s a good thing: there’s no one player on the squad who has to perform every week. However, this week is a challenge as Matt Ryan is on a bye. His performance was curtailed big time last week with injuries to both Jones and Sanu, and perhaps that bye week is the best thing that can happen to the Falcons playmaker. Carlos Hyde is nursing what sounds like a painful injury and talismanic OBJ has missed some time in the 3 games he’s played so far, this season. Though both should start in week 5, there’s every chance that one of them won’t be able to finish a game. Flex could be a tough decision for Gav, and he’s made the wrong choice most weeks so far. Mason Crosby has been effective if not outstanding, but looks likely to keep his place.

Pickaxe need a 15 point QB to stand a chance here, but everywhere else in the lineups there’s a good chance for either team to pull ahead through a TD or a big play. Could be close, but this week I’m going for Pickaxe.

View From the Pit 2017 week 4

Week 4 is here, a month already! Unfortunately there’s still a couple of teams yet to get off the mark. Theres still at least 3 weeks to get a win under the belt and still make the playoffs, but expect some more waiver wire action tomorrow from at least a couple of teams.

Week three’s NFL results did not go according to many plans, and there were highs and lows that no one expected. This could shake up some of the rankings and move some players up in everyone’s radars, there could be some experimental lineup choices for week 4 for sure.

We’ll start with the games for the 0-3 teams. none of them are playing against each other so there’s no one guaranteed to be left without a win on Tuesday, that doesn’t mean there wont be though, so lets take a look.

Earthquakes at Jaguars

1-2 Earlston Earthquakes challenge the 0-3 German Jaguars at Greendale Stadium.

Earlston Earthquakes were led in week 3 by a 22.90 point effort from Rob Gronkowski. In addition, Cairo Santos was not injured before the start of his week 3 game, and contributed 6.40 points, but he’s now on the injured reserve, which will prevent him from contributing at all this week.  Earlston Earthquakes can expect a 22.20 point effort from Le’Veon Bell in week 4, .

Jerman Jaguars were led in week 3 by a 23.20 point effort from Jordy Nelson. In addition, Ty Montgomery was not injured before the start of his week 3 game, and contributed 13.00 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 4 due to an injured wrist, which might severely limit his fantasy production. Jerman Jaguars can expect a 20.21 point effort from Ezekiel Elliott in week 4.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a hard-fought struggle. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, Earlston Earthquakes hold a 3-3-0 all-time series record against Jerman Jaguars.

Cozy’s Earthquakes got themselves off the mark last week, about time too with and average of over 115 they’ve  been performing, unfortunately he’s come up against the second biggest opponents total, beaten only in fact by Jimmy’s Jags. Wilson Bell and Gronk should be the heart of this team every week they play, and this week they are ranked 3, 2 and 1 respectively so there could well be 60 points between them. Devante Parker and Emmanuel Saunders look to be getting the start at WR, and there’s a wee bit of choice to make up the numbers; Tarik Cohen or Buck Allen could have decent games, but probably not both, so choose wisely. Chris needs to pick up a kicker too, but that shouldnt pose too much of a problem.

Jimmy is probably feeling a little lost the now, a new experience being 0-3. Still, he’s averaging over 100 pts a game, only 6 pts or so behind the Pickaxe, who are 3-0, so there’s not too much to worry about, yet. Jimmy has pretty much all his waiver dollars intact too, so expect a pounce as soon as a big star gets injured, though he was perhaps burnt a little trying that move last year. Kirk Cousins probably leads the team out unless Jimmy is streaming.  Zeke Elliot is the star elsewhere, though he is not living up to promises yet, and facing some harsh criticism over attitude, which could have an affect in the long term. Jordy Nelson leads out the receivers, but there’s a bit of a ‘best of a bad lot’ choice after him, though any of Pryor, Benjamin or even Decker could get a TD or 2. Ty Montgomery has been putting up the numbers through reception bonus points alone, so he’s sure to complete the skill player group.

The reality is that either of these teams could have been 3-0 with the right match up. Its down to luck really, and though Jimmy is 0-3, Chris surely still has some karma built up from last year, so I’m going for the Earthquakes

Kestrels at Panthers

2-1 Kelso Kestrels challenge the 0-3 Pilton Panthers at Pilton Park.

Kelso Kestrels were led in week 3 by a 28.30 point effort from T.Y. Hilton,

Pilton Panthers were led in week 3 by a 21.70 point effort from Michael Thomas, who got by the Carolina Panthers defense for 87 receiving yards and 1 receiving TD.  , Pilton Panthers can expect a 18.74 point effort from Michael Thomas in week 4, .

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a classic showdown.

Kestrels have had a bit of a baptism of fire, losing a couple of stars. Ryan has risen to the challenge though and so far is proving himself capable of playing with the big boys. The loss of Darren Sproles could be another nail in a coffin, it could be time for a bit of that kestrel hovering, for a couple of weeks at least.  Almost the entire team seems overmatched this week against the panthers, but of course there’s some chances for big points from tds and receptions. Joe Mixon is getting all the touches in Cincinnati andT.Y Hilton got a load of looks for the Colts.  Kyle Rudolph is a lonely tick on the kestrel side according to fantasy pros, and there should be some points there. All together though it is gonna have to be one hell of a lucky week for Ryan to win.

Panthers are struggling, last years champ perhaps needing a  bit of a boost to get going. There’s no real obvious problems, he’s averaging not quite 100 though, and that is the difference. Rab needs to pick up a guaranteed receiver to get maybe an extra 6 pts a week, that could be a struggle on the waivers as they stand though, trade time? Dalvin Cook and Jay Ajayi are both doing fine at RB, and it might be a struggle to put either of them on the trade block, but they’d be snapped up by the rest of the league. Michael Thomas and Golden Tate could produce in any case, Tate had a possible TD pulled back last week that might not have won a game against the Pirates, but would have made the Panthers average in line with some of our winning teams. So perhaps there’s no reason to panic after all.

All of then signs point to Rab breaking his duck with a win this week, it would take some serious good/bad luck for that not to happen, or some very good trade/waiver moves on either side.

69ers at Pickaxe

0-3 SanFran-Gordon 69ers, who hope to end their 3 game losing streak, play the 3-0 Nitten Pickaxe at New Victoria Park.

Nitten Pickaxe were led in week 3 by a 28.90 point effort from Odell Beckham. Nitten Pickaxe can expect a 19.65 point effort from Matt Ryan in week 4.

SanFran-Gordon 69ers were led in week 3 by a 24.82 point effort from Aaron Rodgers. SanFran-Gordon 69ers can expect a 23.01 point effort from Aaron Rodgers in week 4.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a hard-fought struggle. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, SanFran-Gordon 69ers hold a 2-3-0 all-time series record against Nitten Pickaxe.

69ers, oh dear. Richie has the lowest average in the league. there’s no reason it has to be that way, selection issues have cost the niners a couple of games, its a problem oif having just a few too many mid range players who can perform on any week, just not every week. Surely its only a matter of time before Richie reads the runes right though, and we can expect a 120 point score before too long. Aaron Rogers and the seahawks DST are ranked #1 this week, so there should be points aplenty at the top and bottom of the scorecard at least, can the skill positions match those bookends? Devonta Freeman is due a massive game, though that could also be dependent on Matt Ryan’s production, and unfortunately he’s up in the Pickaxe lineup, Richie maybe has to hope that the Falcons take an early lead and Ryan throws an interception or 2. Jimmy Graham is still ranked highly, despite 3 lacklustre games, so dont expect a streamer at TE. Adams and Thielen should be the receivers of choice, though there’s also an option to use Sanu if Richie is worried about MAtt Ryan’s points on the other side.

Gav’s Pickaxe are sitting pretty at 3-0, that hides some pretty average points though, they’ve faced the lowest points against total by some margin, karma for last year? Maybe, but we’ll see how much luck plays a part in this league. Matt Ryan has been capable if not outstanding and looks to have a monster game at some point. though with 2 possible Falcons on Richie’s side, any advantage could be wiped out. Carlos Hyde and Jordan Howard are both proving useful, though they could both be ‘playing through the pain’, which might only last so long. OBJ came back strong last week though, just in time, with 2 tds in the 4th Quarter, his catches looked good too, so hopefully he’s through his injury scare. Zach Ertz is the not so secret weapon in this team though – he is making the most of the PPR format and sees an extra 7 pts a week over standard format. DeAndre Hopkins is leading the league in targets too, and together that is points in the bag for Gav.

Richie badly needs this win, but its going to be a struggle here. He outranks Gav at RB and QB, and in standard that would be enough, PPR looks to be enough to put the Pickaxe in front though – its Nitten Pickaxe by 5 points.

Pirates at Fog

2-1 Tweedbank Pirates challenge the 3-0 Fog on the Tyne at New St James Park.

Tweedbank Pirates were led in week 3 by a 37.90 point effort from Todd Gurley,  In addition, Michael Crabtree was not injured before the start of his week 3 game, and contributed 1.70 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 4 due to an injured chest , which might severely limit his fantasy production.  Tweedbank Pirates can expect a 22.98 point effort from Drew Brees in week 4.

Fog on the Tyne were led in week 3 by a 32.10 point effort from Brandin Cooks. Fog on the Tyne can expect a 17.80 point effort from Julio Jones in week 4.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a hard-fought struggle. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, Tweedbank Pirates hold a 1-4-0 all-time series record against Fog on the Tyne.

Pirates are the big scorers by some margin, after only 3 weeks they are more than a game ahead in terms of average points than t least 4 other teams, they are still only 2-1 but that was due to a good break for the Bohos in week 1. There’s simply few weaknesses for Paul as it stands, Pierre Garcon is the lowest ranked player in a starting lineup and he’s only at 25 – higher than some people’s starting WR1s. The bench does not rank too highly but there;s a handcuff or 2 in there for sure, so they’ll jump up the rankings should an injury come. Todd Gurley and LeSean McCoy are ranked right next to each other at 4 and 5 this week, but they couldn’t be further apart in their season starts, Gurley is flying whilst McCoy has yet to really shine, those bonus reception points are stacking up though. Fitzgerald and Landry both had decent outings last week, so expect them to start at WR1 and 2, plenty of receptions and a probably TD between them should see pirates well into the 100s again.

Fog are comfortable on their 3 wins, with a healthy average they look to be a team that is consolidating their place in the league. Julio Jones is perhaps due a TD or 2, but he’s still getting the points on the board via receptions. Leonard Fournette has been steadily rising up the rankings, with a TD and a few good receptions each week to boost some average plus running stats. He surely cannot score every week, but there’s no reason to leave him on the bench. Derek Carr had a bit of a disaster last week, but there’s not much on the waivers to tempt Stuart away from starting him again, it can’t be as bad as week 3 anyway? The Broncos and Justin Tucker are a pretty healthy pairing at the bottom of the set, and could be the difference here as they are ranked well above Paul’s pair.

All in all The Pirates have the momentum, but the Fog could have a strong week, its a big advantage for paul at RB but Stuart has the edge at receivers, and could have 3 on the filed higher ranked than any of Paul’s, for that reason I’m giving it to the Fog, bonus ppr points should do it.

187s at Tigers

2-1 Kelso 187’s play the 2-1 Tranent Tigers at Polson Park.

Kelso 187’s were led in week 3 by a 30.80 point effort from Chris Thompson, .  , Kelso 187’s can expect a 18.93 point effort from Keenan Allen in week 4, .

Tranent Tigers were led in week 3 by a 28.60 point effort from Sammy Watkins,

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be an epic battle. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Kelso 187’s hold a 2-1-0 all-time series record against Tranent Tigers.

187s have been a wee bit unlucky not to be top of the TJ Hooker division, they have the top score by quite a bit, but came up against a brick wall against the Kestrels in week 2. The rankings look great for this week, perhaps apart from Greg Zuelein at kicker, but he’s sure to get some points in any case. Chris Thompson looks to be the back to own in Washington with Rob Kelley out, and that could prove a great pickup by the end of the season, it doesn’t looks like Samaje Perrine will be fit or forgiven for week 4. Dak Prescott has a tough matchup at the raiders, but he’s still ranked #6 QB overall this week, so plenty of chances there. Mike Evans and Keenan Allen both ranked in the top 10 and at least one of them due a TD this week maybe? the Jags must be on a roll after holding the Ravens to just 7 pts last week, as long as they’ve recovered from their trip they are surely a solid start.

Tigers were soundly beaten last week, even after an impressive start from Sammy Watkins on the Thursday night. Antonio Jones also brought home the points but it was everywhere else that caused Nicky problems, there’s no RB averaging more than 7 pts a game, and that is a huge loss, having Charles Clay and Travis Kelce on the team is surely a wasted space, and like others in previous years gives Nicky a lineup problem every week. There are teams looking for a TE though, a trade could be the way forward to get a 10 point RB on the books. The Ravens were obliterated last week as a DST, and ended up on minus points, they not got a great matchup this week either, so perhaps expect a waiver pickup there. QB is no better, Cam Newton is roundly failing to live up to previous years and Alex Smith is a poor subsitute ofr a QB1, Nicky is in danger of ending up with 2 reserve QBs if he doesn’t act fast.

Nicky’s Tigers have an advantage with Brown and Kelce, but that’s about it. Euan’s 187s outrank them nearly everywhere else and we’ve got to go with a win for the 187s this week.

Bohemians at Avengers

1-2 Earlstonian Bohemians face off against the 2-1 Kelsae Avengers at Samuel Sawyer Memorial Park.

Earlstonian Bohemians were led in week 3 by a 36.72 point effort from Tom Brady. In addition, Derrick Henry was not injured before the start of his week 3 game, and contributed 7.40 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 4 due to an injured thigh, which might severely limit his fantasy production. Earlstonian Bohemians can expect a 19.69 point effort from Tom Brady in week 4.

Kelsae Avengers were led in week 3 by a 26.50 point effort from Doug Baldwin,

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a game for the ages. In the 2-year history of this rivalry, Earlstonian Bohemians hold a 0-2-0 all-time series record against Kelsae Avengers.

Allys Bohos have come up against a bit of a wall this week. Though the Bohemians are scoring well, it’s not a patch on the Avengers average. Tom Brady and AJ Green really both need to have standout games to get this matchup going. The Steelers look to be a good defense option and there are points available for Tyreek Hill every week it seems. Tevin Coleman, Ameer Abndullah and Derrick Henry could all get a starting place for the weekend, likely dependant on Demarco Murrays status. Amari Cooper should be in at Flex and together that looks like a good 100 pts in the bag, they are going to need 120 to get a win here though – so a 3 TD luck bonus is what Ally needs.

Avengers have been scoring well, second only to the rampaging Pirates. Kareem Hunt has 97 point sin 3 weeks, lets look at that again at the end of the season, but 3 straight monster performances on the bounce, from a 4th rounder, can it continue? Fantasy pros thinks so and he’s ranked #1 on the week. Melvin Gordon scrapes in at 10 as well with 2 top 20 WRs in Baldwin and Jeffery to balance out the skill players. Pip Rivers has a better rank but Carson Wentz, picked up in Free agency is surely the hot hand here after Rivers’ disaster in week 3. If there is a loose link in the Avengers chain it’s here at QB. Stuart is probably not too worried though, as his other starters are doing the business week after week just now.

Ally is due a better game and the numbers bear that out the Pit has to go with the numbers, and this week they say Bohos for the win.

 

that’s it, a bit of a late start this week, so half done before and half after the waivers, I aint going back to change them tho!

 

What difference will a new Offensive Coordinator make to Cincinnati?

After a 0-2 home start and an offense that mustered just 3 field goals, the Cincinnati Bengals moved swiftly on from long t-rm coordinator Ken Zampese.

His replacement, Bill Lazor, will head up the offense for the week 3 visit to Green Bay. While we don’t expect to see immediate benefits the change in philosophy should see some longer-term changes to fantasy output and touches.

Zampese, a Coryell/Man blocking disciple will make way for Lazor’s West-Coast Zone blocking scheme. A profile of touches for the Zampese offense for each opponent is shown below.

Zampese(1)

The main focus of the Zampese offense was the setup of the passing game using the run. The lead back profiled to see in the region of 240 rushing attempts and 50 targets with the secondary back seeing 120 attempts and 50 targets.  The main receiving target was the WR1 seeing 126 targets with the WR2, WR3 and TE seeing 100, 70 and 88 targets respectively.

The addition of Lazor should result in a change in workload for both the backfield and the main receiver. In comparison to Zampese, at a basic level, Lazor runs less and passes more. However, the workload for the RB1 should stay relatively stable (234 carries/ 49 targets), its the RB2 who’ll lose out (102 carries/36 targets). Given that Lazor’s two previous stops have seen him use LeSean McCoy and Lamar Miller as RB1’s the likelihood of Jeremy Hill seeing the same workload is probably very slim. Expect to see the usage of Joe Mixon increase or if he’s not ready in the short term then Giovanni Bernard will absorb most of the passing work.

The biggest beneficiary of Lazor’s ascension will be AJ Green with his target workload expected to increase to 142. The WR2/3 and TE targets should stay relatively stable. A profile of touches for the Lazor offense for each opponent is shown below.

Lazor(1)

View From the Pit 2017 – Week 3

Week 3 has arrived and with it a few big deals:

the first is that some folks are now 0-2, which is when things start to feel a wee bit uncomfortable. Secondly was the massive spend on the waivers last week, a couple of folk left with precious little for the rest of the season. Thirdlt was the huge range of scoring: where in the last few years 95-100 has been enough to feel comfortable, we are now looking at a couple of teams with average scores nearer 150 than 100. Lastly we have the ever present injuries to stars across the league and the resultant scrabble for replacements.  We can expect these things together to lead to a bit more being spent on the waivers tomorrow.

It seems clear that there’s going to be no let up this season, so better get reading below and set your waivers for the morrow.

Avengers at Fog

2-0 Kelsae Avengers play the 2-0 Fog on the Tyne at New St James Park.

Kelsae Avengers were led in week 2 by a 25.90 point effort from Kareem Hunt.. Kelsae Avengers can expect a 19.50 point effort from Kareem Hunt in week 3..

Fog on the Tyne were led in week 2 by a 21.20 point effort from Derek Carr. In addition, Chris Hogan was not injured before the start of his week 2 game, and contributed 18.80 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 3 due to an injured knee , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Fog on the Tyne can expect a 19.85 point effort from Julio Jones in week 3.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a epic battle. In the 2-year history of this rivalry, Kelsae Avengers hold a 1-3-0 all-time series record against Fog on the Tyne.

One of these teams will be on that all important 3-0 with a 2-0 divisional rating on Tuesday. That is getting close to half way to a playoff berth folks, so not to be sniffed at.

Avengers have the best record in the league at the moment, with a monster 290 points from their 2 games. Is that sustainable? Well a quick look at the stats shows that Kareen Hunt is responsible for nearly a quarter of those points on his own, so I’d have to say that there will need to be a drop at least in RB scores. Mind you there are also places where scores have been lower than expected too so there’s room for this team to stay near the top of the averages. RBs form the heart of the team, receivers maybe a little less stellar , but there’s room for some receptions and a TD or 2 from Alshon Jeffery and Delanie Walker. The Rams are highly rated this week ,leaving Stuarts waiver picks free for some of the skill positions.

Fog look pretty good too, and could be cursing being in uhura by the end of the season if Stuart’s Avengers keep up their form, Stuarts fog could be leading most divisions affter 2 weeks, even if their average score pales in comparison to the Avengers. The good news is that the over 100 average that the Fog have obtained has come from right across the team, there’s a wide range of players with a very healthy 10 poitn average, showing at least some consistency. Derek Carr is a solid start this week, and Julio Jones is surely due a monster game at some point. RB2 is a worry though, there are maybe a couple of waiver targets from Stuart due tomorrow.

The Pit thinks that the Avengers luck has to run out sometime, and it could well be this week, its a win for the Fog.

Pickaxe at Tigers

2-0 Nitten Pickaxe play the 2-0 Tranent Tigers at Polson Park.

Nitten Pickaxe were led in week 2 by a 18.80 point effort from Martavis Bryant.. In addition, Jordan Howard was not injured before the start of his week 2 game, and contributed 0.70 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 3 due to an injured shoulder , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Nitten Pickaxe can expect a 20.10 point effort from Matt Ryan in week 3..

Tranent Tigers were led in week 2 by a 24.30 point effort from Travis Kelce. Tranent Tigers can expect a 22.30 point effort from Antonio Brown in week 3.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a epic battle. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Nitten Pickaxe hold a 4-2-0 all-time series record against Tranent Tigers.

Its all to play for in this  Shatner divisional clash. Both Gav and Nicky have started well but by Tuesday morning only one of them will retain that perfect record.

Gav’s Pickaxe have lucked out a bit so far, coming up against 2 disappointing scores from the Panthers and the Bohemians, a win is a win though, and Pickaxe could be counting on those 2 in the bag come playoff time. There’s good and bad news for Gav, OBJ looks to be back, if not quite 100% yet, but Jordan Howard, 2nd round pick, could be done through a combination of a shoulder injury, a severe lack of O line talent and a rookie coming up fast in the form of Tarik Cohen. There’s been a few surprise points too though, Mike Gillislee could be a solid 10-15 pts a week and Zach Ertz also looks stable for the moment, getting a huge number of targets. Mason Crosby has not made any mistakes yet and there’s plenty of streamers to put in at DST.

Tigers have Antonio Brown to thank for two solid performances so far, but he’s far from the only star in this team. Cam Newton might have had a lacklustre start, but backup Alex Smith could see most of the starts for Nicky this year in any case, if he can continue his great starting form. Isaiah Crowll and Matt Forte have not been setting the workd on fire but there are chances for bigger scores here in any given week. The Ravens look like a good option for DST this week. There’s a little lack of depth at WR here, could be Sammy Watkins or Rishard Matthews at flex, expect at least a bid in for a decent flex player from Nicky tomorrow .

The ranks say Pickaxe, but the form says Tigers, but with just average scores from Gav’s studs so far maybe week 3 is time for a big breakout, no surprises that we are going for a Pickaxe win this week

All the other games are 0-0-vs 0-1, which means we have at least the possibility of no one at all going 0-3.

Bohemians at Earthquakes

1-1 Earlstonian Bohemians challenge the 0-2 Earlston Earthquakes at The Cauldie.

Earlstonian Bohemians were led in week 2 by a 30.78 point effort from Tom Brady.. Earlstonian Bohemians can expect a 19.50 point effort from A.J. Green in week 3..

Earlston Earthquakes were led in week 2 by a 24.20 point effort from Emmanuel Sanders. In addition, Rob Gronkowski was not injured before the start of his week 2 game, and contributed 23.60 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 3 due to an injured groin , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Earlston Earthquakes can expect a 22.20 point effort from Le’Veon Bell in week 3.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a epic battle. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, Earlstonian Bohemians hold a 4-4-0 all-time series record against Earlston Earthquakes.

This is a fight for the bottom spot in Kirk division.

Bohemians had a bit of a disaster last week but there’s plenty in this team to feel happy with. Tom Brady is points in the bag every week he’s playing, it seems his main problem is passing ever so slightly too well for fantasy, given the Pats tendency to run within the 15 yard line, I’m sure that’s not top of his priority list though, so don’t expect it to change any time soon, Gronk would be a big loss to Brady’s scoring chances, but his strain is not serious by all accounts. Despite the Bengals woes in the real game, AJ Green still looks worth starting every week, and with so much point chasing on the cards, there’s always an option for a massive hail Mary TD. Ameer Abdullah and Tevin Coleman look to be the only selectable RBs on Ally’ Bohos squad, so unless there’s is a big push on the waivers expect them to start.

There’s a bit of Deja Vu for Chris and beig 0-2, he will be wanting a win perhaps more than anyone this week to avoid slipping into the kind of slide we saw last year. There’s surely good news here though, Tarik cohen should benefit from the bears o-line injuries and become a key ppr asset with his receiveing back abilities, Javorious Allen may turn out to be a steal too, even if Chris has blown almost his entire budget in week 2. As above, Gronk looks to be playing this week, and there’s a good 15 pts on the board with any justice. Devante Parker and Emmanuel Sanders will likely start at WR, and they are capable, if not outstanding.

Chris really needs Bell to perform as he is capable of this week, a 25 pt burst there will see him through, but there’s no guarantee. Without really any stats to back it up, it looks to me that in a low scoring game the Runners will make the difference whilst the higher the score the more you need receivers and those important extra points – therefor receiving RBs are a bit of a holy grail. Interestingly for Chris, my predictatron does not put Tarik Cohen, who fits the receiving RB designation, into his lineup this week, but don’t be surprised to see him there on Sunday. All in I’d say this could be close, and reliant on waiver pickups for both of them – but in the end I’m going for another win for the Bohos I’m afraid.

Panthers at Pirates

0-2 Pilton Panthers face off against the 1-1 Tweedbank Pirates at Gun Knowe Stadium.

Pilton Panthers were led in week 2 by a 14.60 point effort from Jay Ajayi.. In addition, Greg Olsen was not injured before the start of his week 2 game, and contributed 2.00 points, but he’s now on the injured reserve, which will prevent him from contributing at all this week. Pilton Panthers can expect a 18.17 point effort from Michael Thomas in week 3.

Tweedbank Pirates were led in week 2 by a 32.00 point effort from Michael Crabtree. Tweedbank Pirates can expect a 19.61 point effort from Drew Brees in week 3.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a classic showdown. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, Pilton Panthers hold a 3-1-0 all-time series record against Tweedbank Pirates.

Panthers are not off to a great start, a  bit like Bengals QB Andt Dalton, who looks likely to be binned unless something major happens soon. Marcus Mariota seems a much safer bet, though there could also be some streamer options that do the business for Rab this week. Jay Ajayi is rated #2 RB this week, and he really needs to get some stats onto the board to justify that first round pick, but of course his bye week is already passed, so if he can develop his 15 points from last week we could see Rabs fortunes turn.  Dalvin Cook is scoring pretty well too. Golden Tate is the pick of the wideouts here, there’s certainly chances for him and a couple of the other receiver options, flex might be a tough choice. it looks like tome to go with another DST this week for Rab, though there could be some competition on the waivers for the pick of that bunch.

Pirates have scored well, and were a wee bit unlucky not to win in week one with a fine score. Todd Gurley and Michael Crabtree have both been outstanding so far. Gurley and Lesean McCoy are both ranked in the top 10 RBs this week which should give coach Paul some confidence. Jason Witten has certainly benefitted from the PPR scoring change this year, with a good haul of targets and receptions to boost his score to a very respocetable 20+ average, expect that to take a wee bit of a dive this week, but there’s still plenty of points there. Jarvis Landry and Pierre Garcon are likely to bne the ones fighting it out for a flex place, and both are ranked in the top 30 WRs this week, giving them more than half a chance at a TD or a handful of reception bonus points.

All in, The Pirates should have this one sealed up, assuming that RAb cannot fill all his lineup weaknesses without a fight from the rest of the league.

 

69ers at Kestrels

0-2 SanFran-Gordon 69ers challenge the 1-1 Kelso Kestrels at Shedden Park.

SanFran-Gordon 69ers were led in week 2 by a 24.00 point effort from Devonta Freeman.. In addition, DeMarco Murray was not injured before the start of his week 2 game, and contributed 3.80 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 3 due to an injured hamstring , which might severely limit his fantasy production. SanFran-Gordon 69ers can expect a 19.74 point effort from Aaron Rodgers in week 3..

Kelso Kestrels were led in week 2 by a 20.20 point effort from Allen Hurns. Kelso Kestrels can expect a 16.38 point effort from Jameis Winston in week 3. This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a classic showdown.

Is this the first home game for the Kestrels? Yep sure is. Maybe Ryan is amongst you cynics who think there’s no such thing as a home advantage? Where’s your passion? is my challenge back. You are not really part of the league unless you know the name of the hotdog guy in block C of your home stadium now are you?

Richie’s 69ers have yet to get in the black this year, there’s no real reason for that – there’s a string of potential stars here, they just haven’t got going at the same time. Aaron Rogers leads the pack and is top ranked QB for week 3. Devonta Freeman is going strong and is second only to Rogers in scoring averages on the niners roster. Davante Adams should lead out the WR cohort and should be good for a handful of receptions and maybe a TD. Seahawks DST have a decent match up for the week and chris Boswell looks stable at Kicker. With that said, where can Richie make a change – there’s no one obvious to sub in from the waivers, not that the niners should leave it for the week, but any waiver picks might still end up on the bench.

The Kestrels have had a bit of bad luck in their start in the EFFL, David Johnson is on the IR and Willie Snead is also out. Jameis Winston is a solid start, but needs to step up a gear after missing week one due to the hurricane.  Unfortunatley for Ryan, there’s no one in RB or WR ranked any higher than 20 this week, that leaves some selection problems, and a reliance on luck to make any progress this week. Ryan played a big part in a week 2 waiver arms race, leaving him with just 25 bucks to play with this week, maybe enough for a top waiver pick but you’ve got to doubt it. The Pit’s advice is to ride the storm for a week or two and come back fighting – you never know when those mid range players could just give you the win you need.

The Pit has to go with the home crowd being disappointing for their first game, its a win for the 69ers

187s at Jaguars

1-1 Kelso 187’s face off against the 0-2 Jerman Jaguars at Greendale Stadium.

Kelso 187’s were led in week 2 by a 22.30 point effort from Mike Evans. In addition, Terrance West was not injured before the start of his week 2 game, and contributed 12.50 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 3 due to an injured undisclosed , which might severely limit his fantasy production. 187’s can expect a 17.96 point effort from Ben Roethlisberger in week 3.

Jerman Jaguars were led in week 2 by a 29.00 point effort from Ty Montgomery.. In addition, Tyler Eifert was not injured before the start of his week 2 game, and contributed 7.20 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 3 due to an injured knee , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Jerman Jaguars can expect a 19.41 point effort from Kirk Cousins in week 3..

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a hard-fought struggle. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Kelso 187’s hold a 2-1-0 all-time series record against Jerman Jaguars.

So the 187s have the opportunity to put the boot in to the double champs this week – Jimmy has never lost the first game, let alone going 0-2. Euan’s stat line reads unlike anyone else’s – there’s no one on the entire roster with an score less than 17 or so – that says depth, but it also says selection nightmare. I know there’s a load of coaches in the league would be loving that selection nightmare though , so stay thankful 187s and maybe make some trades! Receivers should make the bulk of the points, both at WR and TE. Dez Bryant only warrants a flex place according to my rankings, that’s got to be  a good thing. Marshawn Lynch appears to be back on reasonable form, and you have to expect that he will get better during these first few weeks unless he gets injured.

The Jags have a fine team on paper, and as Jimmy pointed out he had the 2 top scoring RBs last week and still lost. Zeke Elliot and Ty Montgomery should be the heart of this lineup again. There’s some suggestion that Zeke is  in a sophomore slump, and of course he might be affected by his own off field antics. Unusually Jimmy made no moves on the wiavers last week, preferring to make a range of free agency moves. That of course puts him in pole for the week with a full 100 bucks to spend should he choose. We’ll see tomorrow but there is certainly a gap for another receiver, a better TE or another WR. I think its likely we’ll see a streamed dst and maybe a kicker too.

There’s no doubt that as it stands on Tuesday night – the 187s have the advantage, and the pit is going for those numbers.

 

and that’s your lot for the week

 

View From the Pit 2017 – Week 2

Week one is done, 6 of us are sitting pretty in the black and six might be panicking a littel and ready to spend spend spend on the waivers. With a little sneak peak of who people might want, followed by lots of playground ‘but he did it first’ comments we may be in for a big money Wednesday night – who has the most to lose by not splashing the cash is the big question?

1 win does not get you to the playoffs though, and there’s a long way to go – even a massive 162 point score is no guarnatee of a season to come, and conversely we’ll all be expecting those quakes to pick up the pace, after all, they now have the definite best RB in the league?

As a bonus this week we welcome back MFL Bot to the View. How you doing MFL Bot?

Not so great judging by some of your predictions…

There’s no big divisional deciders yet, with no teams guaranteed to go 2-0, though at least 1 team will go 0-2 this week

69ers at Avengers

0-1 SanFran-Gordon 69ers face off against the 1-0 Kelsae Avengers at Samuel Sawyer Memorial Park.

SanFran-Gordon 69ers were led in week 1 by a 24.70 point effort from Adam Thielen, who beat the New Orleans Saints defense for 157 receiving yards.  69ers can expect a 23.93 point effort from Aaron Rodgers in week 2.

Kelsae Avengers were led in week 1 by a 46.60 point effort from Kareem Hunt, who beat the New England Patriots defense for 148 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD in addition to 98 receiving yards. Avengers can expect a 19.59 point effort from Philip Rivers in week 2.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a game for the ages. In the 2-year history of this rivalry, SanFran-Gordon 69ers hold a 0-2-0 all-time series record against Kelsae Avengers.

69ers did not get off to their best start with the second lowest score in the league last week, facing the top scorer they are going to have to pull out all of the stops to get going again. Aaron Rgers, the Seahawks D and Jimmy Graham are all ranked very high this week for a start and that should provide a backbone for the score. Devonta Freeman and DeMarco Murray are both top 10 RBs for week 2 and that should see Richie to a good 25-30 pts plus TDs. Adam Thielen, last weeks top scorer for Richie, should sneak in at flex if nothing else, Davante Adams perhaps the pick of the WR selection, There’s a group of receivers ranked very close though, and that might prove a selection worry for 69ers this week. Chris Boswell is maybe a weka link here, but with kickers so hard to predict, is it worth strameing someone else?

Avengers couahc Stuart has got to be happy with week one. 46 points for a single player was more than many teams whole bench score and would have made a winning difference in every game. Remember that he fumbled with his first play, so it could even have been higher! Melvin gordon is again ranked hiugher than Hunt so together Stuart has to expect 30 pts in the bag. There’s a good range of WR talent for the first 2 slots, its at flex where the pickings start to get a little slimmer. Marshall, Riddick or Corey Davis are sure to put up at least a few points though – whoever the Avengers select. vDan Bailey and the Rams would be a firm pick for K and DST most weeks and this is no excepttion, you’ll expect an average plus score from the both of them. Pip Rivers takes the team out, and though rarely Stellar, he’s a solid choice for QB.

Avengers can surely only roll downhill from last week, the question is how far? this week the pit is going for far enough to get beat by the 69ers.

Tigers at Panthers

1-0 Tranent Tigers challenge the 0-1 Pilton Panthers at Pilton Park.

Tranent Tigers were led in week 1 by a 29.20 point effort from Antonio Brown, who tore apart the Cleveland Browns defense for 182 receiving yards. Tigers can expect a 21.53 point effort from Antonio Brown in week 2.

Pilton Panthers were led in week 1 by a 21.40 point effort from Golden Tate, who beat the Arizona Cardinals defense for 107 receiving yards in addition to 7 rushing yards. Panthers can expect a 18.28 point effort from Marcus Mariota in week 2.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a classic showdown. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Tranent Tigers hold a 1-5-0 all-time series record against Pilton Panthers.

Tigers had the best Shatner division score last week, but still sit in the middle thanks to the Pickaxe divisional win. This is their chance to get back in the hunt with their own go against last years champs. Antonio Brown and Travis Kelce should help them on their way. Last week’s near 30 points is enough to put a smile on anyone’s face, though the vimings should be a slightly tougher secondary than the Browns last week. Elsewhere in the team its all just solid, not standout, Cam Newton is always good for a few points at least, and Travis Kelce is second ranked TE for the week so there’s chances there. Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell at RB could do with some backup, so expect some waiver action from Nicky  tomorrow too.

Panthers hit the ground with a bump in week one, last years champs just about got over the line to 90 points, though what the ‘industry standard’ will be in PPR is anyone’s guess. In any case a journeyman performace. Like Paul, Rab can be happy that in thse 90 points there were lots of solid numbers rather than anyone standout, there’s certainly more to come from the receivers I’m sure. Marcus MAriota is likely to get the start again over Andy Dalton, who was in negative points for week one. Mariota is a bit of an anomoly, not quite in the elite ranks for fantasy, but possibly too good to stream as well, perhaps expect Dalton to be dropped in favour of someone more likely to pair up with Mariots low weeks.  Jay Ajayi and Dalvin Cook are both expected to score more than the equivalent Tigers.

There’s points in the Panthers for sure, and lets not forget their DST and Kicker who could upset the cart, but the numbers say tigers this week.

Kestrels at 187s

0-1 Kelso Kestrels play the 1-0 Kelso 187’s at Compton Palace.

Kelso Kestrels were led in week 1 by a 15.00 point effort from the Carolina Panthers Defensive Team. In addition, Allen Robinson was not injured before the start of his week 1 game, and contributed 2.70 points, but he’s listed as out in week 2 due to an injured knee, which might severely limit his fantasy production.  Kestrels can expect a 24.93 point effort from David Johnson in week 2. (keep up MFL bot eh?!?)

Kelso 187’s were led in week 1 by a 16.20 point effort from Jonathan Stewart, who snuck past the San Francisco 49ers defense for 65 rushing yards in addition to 17 receiving yards. In addition, Caleb Sturgis was not injured before the start of his week 1 game, and contributed 13.90 points, but he’s now on the injured reserve, which will prevent him from contributing at all this week. 187’s can expect a 16.73 point effort from Keenan Allen in week 2.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a classic showdown.

Kestrels had the worst of all entrances to the league going 0-1 and losing that first round pick until near the playoffs at the earliest and a 4th rounder too, can Ryan recover from that? There was certainly an attempt at panic buying yesterday, but now everyone knows who’s on the list, so it could be an expensive day for the Kestrels. Having said that, there’s still space for points in this team. Jameis Winston is a solid QB to start with this year and there’s still Lamar M?iller at RB and Kyle Rudolph at TE whon would have been on anyone’s draft list. TY Hilton could be a bust until Andrew Luck returns, which could be a few weeks yet, but there’s always hope with a star receiver like that. Perhaps the best Ryan can do is keep his head down and set the Kestrels up for a late season surge. Any week can go his way and if he can pick up a waiver steal and hope for Lucks return, there is still a good chance of the playoffs.

Euan’s 187s lucked out last week with the second lowest winning score of the week. It looks like 100 or more  is going to be the likely win line now we are in PPR. In any case, Beastmode proved that a year off hasn’t done him too much harm and should continue to score for the 187s. Mike Evans looks good enough at WR, and shold collect a few more than last week. Janthan Stewart, last weeks high scorer for Euan, doesn’t even make the team according to my calculations this week, but there’s a lot of competition for that flex spot, so we’ll see about that. Euan needs to find a kicker after Caleb Sturgis has been place don the IR – he could return, but is it worth keeping an IR slot for a kicker?

All in all, there’s some hope for the Kestrels, but in theory the numbers all add up to 187 this week.

 

Earthquakes at Pirates

0-1 Earlston Earthquakes challenge the 0-1 Tweedbank Pirates at Gun Knowe Stadium.

Earlston Earthquakes were led in week 1 by a 13.60 point effort from Jeremy Maclin. Earthquakes can expect a 19.07 point effort from Le’Veon Bell in week 2

Tweedbank Pirates were led in week 1 by a 20.90 point effort from LeSean McCoy, who beat the New York Jets defense for 110 rushing yards in addition to 49 receiving yards. Pirates can expect a 17.27 point effort from Drew Brees in week 2

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a game for the ages. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, Earlston Earthquakes hold a 4-4-0 all-time series record against Tweedbank Pirates.

This match up is all square after 4 years, and this is a crucial divisional game, so expect both coaches to go for it with their lineups, some competition on the waiver wire perhaps.

Earthquakes have the definite top RB in the league now in Leveon Bell, he was maybe a wee bit disappointing last week, but now he’s warmed up a bit it should be 15 pts in the bag each time. Russel Wilson is well fancied this week and should see a fair few points against the 49ers, after a similarly lacklustre start last week. WR is where Chris nmay be struggling, a trade with Ally might be in order if the Quakes can convince him that one of their RBs is worth the value. Gronk had a poor start too – some quakes draft hangovers that need to get cleared out this week.

Pirates have to feel a little robbed after week one, a third best weekly score is always a tough one to take in a loss. However, at least it means the team are performing and importantly for Paul, there were no 40 point outliers in that score – it was just solid performances all round. Lesean Mccoy and Todd Gurley shoudl be safe for 25-30 between them and there’s a prtetty decent set of WRs too. In fact its just at the bottom of the lineup that there are any issues at all, Flex, K and DST seem to be the weak points for the week – but a streaming kicker and DST plus a good waiver pick up will sort that out no problem.

The numbers are falling badly for the Quakes this week – no one wants a repeat of last years start, but its looking decidedly dicey for the Quakes, and it will likely be 0-2 on Tuesday morning.

Pickaxe at Bohemians

1-0 Nitten Pickaxe play the 1-0 Earlstonian Bohemians at Bohemian Park.

Nitten Pickaxe were led in week 1 by a 18.50 point effort from DeAndre Hopkins. In addition, Kevin White was not injured before the start of his week 1 game, and contributed 2.60 points, but he’s listed as out in week 2 due to an injured shoulder , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Pickaxe can expect a 23.87 point effort from Matt Ryan in week 2.

Earlstonian Bohemians were led in week 1 by a 26.80 point effort from Tyreek Hill.Bohemians can expect a 23.29 point effort from Tom Brady in week 2.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a game for the ages. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, Nitten Pickaxe hold a 2-6-0 all-time series record against Earlstonian Bohemians.

Is it really 6-2? Ah well, the Bot doesn’t lie, but will there be a dent in that this year?

Gav’s Pickaxe rode their luck a bit for a win last week, with no one scoring over 20 and a couple of low single digit numbers, it was tocuh and go on Monday night, fortunately the 97 pts was just enough to seal top spot in Shatner Division. Will OBJ be back is the big question for Gav this week, that could make all the difference here. Pickaxe RB pair certainly looks to have the better of the Boho equivalent, but with a certain rookie nudging into Jordan Howard’s touchjes, there’s no guarnatee of a repeat of last weeks good effort. Zach ertz looks like being a good pick up though – high volume short yardage receivers are going to make a big change in the league this year, his 8 catches made him more valuable than even a TD in week one and just aboutr saved the Pickaxe blushes

Ally’s Boho’s have a free roster spot with Andrew Luck out for a while, that’s no great loss with Tom Brady in at QB, and a chance for Ally to perhaps pick up a RB on the waivers tomorrow, he’s hoping for a trade and who knows who in the league is making him an offer he can’t refuse. There’s certainly enough WR talent to spare, looking like a couple of 10 point possibles warming the bench this week unless they get picked up. Last weeks monster scorer Tyreek Hill actually comes in as Ally’s flex choice for week 2 by my calculations, so expect 35 pts plus from whichever recever trio he picks.

All in Tom Brady and that receiver powerhouse look to guarantee the Bohos a respectible 85 pts plus, its just a case of if the RBs and the randomers can top that up to over a ton. Coach Gav looks to have a more stable team, assuming OBJ is fit, but there’s p[erhaps a little less possibility for fireworks, Brady looks the way more likely than Ryan get a 35 pointer for example. But the Pit is nothing if not ‘safety first’ so we are going with the Pickaxe for this one.

 

 

 

Fog at Jaguars

1-0 Fog on the Tyne face off against the 0-1 Jerman Jaguars at Greendale Stadium.

Fog on the Tyne were led in week 1 by a 27.70 point effort from Stefon Diggs, who got by the New Orleans Saints defense for 93 receiving yards and 2 receiving TDs. Fog can expect a 19.40 point effort from Derek Carr in week 2.

Jerman Jaguars were led in week 1 by a 20.90 point effort from Jordy Nelson, who got by the Seattle Seahawks defense for 79 receiving yards and 1 receiving TD. Jaguars can expect a 22.81 point effort from Kirk Cousins in week 2.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2017, and is sure to be a classic showdown. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, Fog on the Tyne hold a 1-8-0 all-time series record against Jerman Jaguars.

Fog have a point to prove here, surely one of the worst records in the league? However, Julio Jones and Brandin Cooks will be a good start to set some of this record straight. RB is perhaps a weakness but Leonard Fournette was well fancied in the draft and returned that ADP faith last week, look for him to keep the points ticking over, whatever his ranking. Derek Carr faces the Jets this week, and that can only be a good thing for the Raiders QB, however, if a match up is that much in your favour, there may be a lot of running down the clock, so don’t be expecting 30 pts plus here. Jordan Reed and Robert Kelly make up the rest here. Reed looks to be a valuable short yardage high volume target, but Kelly seems to have struggled in the opener and will  eed to do better.

Jags have lucked out for now with Ezekiel Elliot, that suspension might still be served, but when is anyone’s guess. When  hes’ playing it feels like 15 points in the bag, and that’s before any TDs. Ty Montgomery was no slouch in week one either and Jimmy could end up with a RB powerhouse here. Jordy Nelson leads the receivers and is predicted a big game in a high scoring contest.  Terrelle Pryor is not quite in the smae league but should see enough targets to make hime a solid WR2.  Tyler Eifert and the Cardinals are a little more unpredictable with scores but both have promise of scores, the Cards D coujld be on the field a lot more than expected with the loss of David Johnson, wheter that’s good or bad for their numbers, it at leasdt provides opportunities for the high scoring picks and sacks.

This is a tough one to call, but on balance I think that the Fog have enough in the tank to hold the Jags at bay this week.

 

 

that’s the lot for this week. lets hope for a few less injuries in week 2’s games, well for my guys anyway!

 

Josh McDaniels Vs Bob Sutton – Matt Nagy Vs Matt Patricia

Expected Touches and Targets (Kansas City  Offense Vs New England Defense)

position touches targets carries actual touches actual targets actual carries
RB1 16.2 2.6 13.6 22 5 17
RB2 9.8 3 6.8 2 1 1
RB3 6.3 1.8 4.5 0  0 0
TE1 5.9 5.9 0 8 7 1
TE2 3 3 0 2 2 0
WR1 9 8.6 0.4 10 8 2
WR2 6.6 5.9 0.6 5 5 0
WR3 5 5 0.1 4 4 0
WR4 3.5 3.4 0.1 2 1 1

Expected Touches and Targets (New England Offense vs Kansas City Defense)

touches targets carries actual touches actual targets actual carries
16.2 2.7 13.5 15 0 15
9.6 2.9 6.7 15 5 10
8 2.4 5.5 6 3 3
6.2 1.7 4.5 2 0 2
6 6 0 6 6 0
3.7 3.7 0 0 0 0
9.3 8.8 0.5 7 7 0
6.1 6 0.1 7 7 0
4.7 4.6 0.2 8 5 3
3.8 3.8 0 0 0 0

 

View From the Pit 2017: Week 1

Well howdy! did you miss me? Back for another year, its only the Earlston Fantasy Football League.

Where? What? Who? I hear you cry, well probably not really as no one outside of our happy band ever comes here, if you’ve stumbled here by mistake after a heavy night, you are on the wrong track mate.

Anyway. Draft day was a big success, all 12 teams represented for the first time ever, luckily we had an expert photographer on hand to capture the moment for ever.

It’s a busy week for the pit so I’m going to get right into it with the previews if that’s ok with you. Some of you haven’t even bothered to set a lineup yet, so MFLbot is having a little trouble with the predictions, its all me for week 1.

PPR is here, will it make a difference, well it might flatter the scorelines a little if nothing else, and it could swing a few games even in week one, we’ll see

Kestrels at Fog

Lets welcome the new guys to get things started. Ryan tells us he’s played before, time will tell for the new guys, he’ll either get a telling, or make us realise we’ve all  been winging it for 4 years, or maybe he’ll just end up riding the luck of the draw like the rest of us and pretending he knew it all along when the Kestrels make the playoffs, all I can tell you now is that there will almost certainly be a ‘kestrels hovering mid table’ pun at the earliest opportunity, and maybe every opportunity after that.

Ryan had the luxury? of second pick and perhaps ended up with a surprise David Johnson rather than Leveon Bell that he might have expected, barring injury, it will just be a bit of luck either way that separates them I expect, and thats 12-18+pts in the bank every week. Jameis Winston at QB is perhaps the biggest gamble in this team, not that he wasnt a good pickup well after halfway in the draft but he’s not scored a TD in the whole preseason, with some WR back in the team for the real thing, that could change, and some folks think he could be the steal QB of the year. Elsewhere Ryan’s WR team of TY Hilton and Allen Robinson have some work to do to match Stuarts Fog team, but theres hope at TE DST and Kicker

Fog took Julio Jones in the first, and that shuld pay dividends for Stuart, leading to a good score in the high 20s for the WR team, Stefon Diggs is likely to complete the receiving trio at flex. Itys RB that is the Fog weakness this week, though both Fournette and Danny Woodhead are capable, they are dealing with off season lack of health and practice. If they are as ready as the teams seem to be suggesting Stuart will be fine, but there’s more than a suggestion that at least one of them is not ready for a full season, week one should be fine though? Derek Carr was another late round QB that could have some serious upside, if Beastmode can recover some of his past glory and take the heat off the QB then there’s some real potential for Carr to get some monster plays going.

Though Ryans Kestrels surely have a team that can contend for the coveted EFFL ring, I think he’s picked a tough match up for week one, its a win for Fog here.

Panthers at Pickaxe.

Last years champs had to sneak off early form the draft, however, that meant getting in very early and picking up both the number 1 Kicker and DST for the first few games. Texans are highly rated this week, and they have a point to prove after a bit of disappointing year in 2016. Week one should eb fine, but Rab may need to watch his depth at the skill positions after this wee bit of a gamble.

Jay Ajayi was picked at the end of round 1, and has a reasonable match up at the Buccs in week 1, expect a good score in the teens here. Dalvin Cook will not be that far behind,and as ever a TD could swap these 2 around without too much surprise. Michael Thomas and Golden Tate look to be the WR of choice, and should be safe for 20-25 between them. Greg Olsen sat the last preseason game, but nothing to worry about there, and he should be a good stash of points each week, with the odd TD thrown in as a bonus.

Gavin’s pickaxe could be stopped befroe starting, and Injury worry for star first round pick OBJ is a worry, but he could play, unfortunatley its the laste Sunday game, so no chance of a sub should he turn out to be off late.v DeAndre Hopkins should be good for a few points, and has something to prove after signing a slightly unexpected contract extension at the Texans. Tere is a little bit of choice for flex, which could be useful if OBJ doesn’t get the nod. Jordon Howard and Carlos Hyde have the RB slots covered, Howard could be one of the first players this year to benefit from the new PPR format, as he’s been taking a lot of yards from the throw rather than the run. Mason Crosby should be fine at Kicker but the Giants are not well fancied this week against the Cowboys, that could really depend on whether Zeke Elliot is back or not…

Overall, its a tough matchup to call, but surprisingly the pit is going with Pickaxe for this one, particularly if Zeke reamins suspended.

Jaguars at Avengers

Last year’s lack of a win must have hurt Jimmy bad, poised for the Hatrick after a near perfect season (stopped by the mighty Pickaxe if I remember?). Anyway, he’s so upset he’s taken his name off the board. Ouch, how will those Jags feel with that lack of faith, we’ll see.

Jordy Nelson was the first to put on a Jags top for 2017. this week he’s up against it with the Seahawks visiting, and his weekly rank suffers as a result, should still be some points here though. Along with Terrelle Prior and maybe Kelvin Benjamin at flex, there’s certainly 30 points in the 3 of them. At RB its fairly pedestrain but certainly capable, we’d hope to see around 20 pts here, with at least 1 TD between them. Kirk Cousins has had a bit of a nightmare in the preseason, but lots of good press about the potential of the Washington Offense, we’ll see, he’s certainly got the talent if he can bring the rest of the O-line into some order.

A Pretty good Season for Stuarts Avengers saw them make the playoffs only to fall at the first hurdle. Stuart chose Melvin Gordon as his first pick to get back into gear for 2017. That could turn out well for Avengers, as the Chargers Offense are getting a good write up for the season.  Kareen Hunt could suffer from joint touches with Charcandrick West and that has lowered his weekly rank this year, Stuart has to hope he makes his mark to seal the true #1 RB slot for the rest of the season. Doug Baldwin looks a very good second round pickup, well this week at least, Green Bay are the team giving up the most points to WR at the end of last season. Alshon Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall will likely make up the other numbers, though Theo Riddick might be in with a chance at flex? The Chiefs could be a decent pickup over the season, but this is a poor week to be starting with – the Pats surely wont allow them anywhere near double figures?

All in there’s pluses and minuses across both teams and it looks fairly even, however that problem with the chiefs could be Stuarts undoing and this week the pit is going for a win for the Jimmy less Jags

Pirates at Bohemians

Pirates had their best finish last season I think? Coach Paul will be pleased, but there is a determination to go one better, a bit of luck with a lack of injuries will help with that, and the team looks fine for the start of the season. Lesean McCoy at RB backed up by Todd Gurley should be a formidable pair for the year, though in the new PPR format RBs need to make the most of big runs up the middle and short passes on the outside, we’ll see how that pans out for Paul, as he appears to have the best pair of RBs in the league at this stage. That strength comes with a bit of a sting at WR, inevitably you cannot have everything in this game, Fitzgerald and Crabtree are no slouches though and should see a decent 20+ between them. Kicker and DST are nothing to write home about for Paul, but anything can happen here so its not a write off of course.

Bohemians went against all predictions and pulled some top WRs out of the bag in the first few rounds.v AJ Green and Amari Cooper could just about put Ally in the playoffs on their own this year. Of course, just like Paul that means some sacrifices elsewhere. for the Bohos that’s RB with some decidedly second string names to choose from. However some canny thoughts about the PPR format could add a few points here for Ally. Tom Brady was a another surprise for the Bohos, but there’s no shame in taking the top QB off the board at any time, that’s 20 pts in the bag most weeks. Ally has also scored this week at DST and Kicker, going a little better than Paul at both positions, not enough to guarantee a pts lead from either of them unfortunately.

This is a tough one, and could be a different result in standard or PPR, but of course the teams would be different if we were still with standard. Even given that, the pit is going for the Pirates and that strength at RB, it should be enough to get in the black in week 1

Tigers at Earthquakes

Tigers have some ground to make up after a disappointing 2016 season. Nicky went WR heavy, and comes up with the top receiver in the form of Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas backs him up and is sure to be recovered form a small strain he suffered in the preseason. Sammy Watkins could be backing both of them up at flex and I’d be confident predicting more than 30 pts between the three of them. Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell are capable if a little underwhelming at RB , there’s got to be close to 15 pts in yards there though, and maybe a TD if Nicky lucks out. Will Lutz and the Packers D were slightly off my radar i have to admit, and their weekly rankings reflect that, maybe Nicky knows something we don’t? In any other week Travis Kelce would be looking top class, but he’s facing the Gronk on the opposing scoreboard, all but guaranteed to humble any TE score.

Earthquakes had that all important first pick, and plumped for Leveon Bell, make no mistake, PPR or no, he’s gonna get some points for Chris every week, The Gronk is a sure fire way to get a good 5 points over anyone else at TE in any given week, and having the 24th and 25th overall pick meant that Chris could also pick up rookie RB Christian McCaffrey, can he be as good as Zeke in his rookie year , probably not, but maybe something like 800 yds over the year is doable? another huge wait for Chris means that his top WR is ranked a lowly 31 this week, Emmanuel Sanders is still a recognisable name, and he seems to be getting a lot of targets, evwen if he’s not converting them all, for PPR targets have to be a good thing and the pre season and the real deal, so there’s some points here for sure. Chris picked a decent middle of the road kicker and DST, and both are ranked higher than Nickys equivalents this week.

After the draft, Nicky’s team seemed to be the best on offer from some predictions, but the pit can see it , yet. This week is a win for the Earthquakes.

187s at 69ers

A numbers showdown to see us through to the end. Euans handwritten cheat sheet was a thing of rare beauty, but someone buy that boy a printer for next year eh? Mike Evans and Dez Bryant are the stars here, and Evans has a proven connection with Buccs QB Winston, there’s some targets and some completions here, perhaps even a guaranteed 5 points before any yards at all now we are in PPR. Dez’s numbers could be affected by Zeke being in or out, but there’s surely some points here assuming Winston can stay out of trouble if Zeke is out. Marshawn Lynch is back and he fell to Euan at about the point in the draft everyone expected, surely any of us would have picked him up if we’d been in the same position? is a year off too much for Beastmode or can he slip back in, whatever, his press conferences are sure to give as much value as ever and I’m sure most folks are glad to see him back. Terrance West or Frank Gore will get the other spot, a  bit too close to call for me. The Pats DST has to be a safe bet for 187s, though Janikowski at kicker needs to rely on a resurgent Raiders O-line if he’s to pay dividends for Euan.

Aaron rogers fell to 69ers in round 3, perhaps a little early for some, but he’s sure to get those points on the board and provides a safe foundation for perhaps a slightly edgy team in the rest of Richie;s draft. He’s gone RB heavy with both Freeman and Murray. there’s plenty of points there and they are ranked 4 and 5 this week, so expect over 25 between them. 69ers suffer at wideout, a bit like Paul’s Pirates, that will be fine if his RBs get some hard running yards and take a couple of receptions each for those bonus points, there’s still a good chance of 15 pts plus maybe 50% chance of another TD in Davante Adams and Jamison Crowder. Jimmy Graham proved he was back to play with the big boys last years and he’s likely to continue that trend for 2017. Chris Boswell and the Seahawks are not stellar contenders in week 1, but there’s a chance of a few points here.

All in this looks like a close match, QB and RB for 69ers and everyone else for Euan, on balance, I think with PPR the receivers should tip the balance, so look for a win for Euans 187s

And that’s it. Another 4 months of this, every Tuesday spent poring over the waivers and every Sunday spent cursing a graph, who would have it any other way?

 

 

 

EFFL AGM 2017 – Reid Hoose on SuperBowl Night

Current items for the AGM

  1. Change Waivers from Wednesday 0915 to 1915.
  2. Kickers will be awarded 0.1 points for each yard of a successful field goal try. A Field Goal and Extra Point miss will NOT be penalised.  
  3. Proposal for Points Per Reception scoring change. 
  4. Add Individual Defensive Player positions to the starting line-ups. 

 

COMMISSIONER NOTIFICATIONS

  1. We will continue with current league fees unless prices rise at MFL or there is a league requirement to increase the prize pot.
  2. Scoring- Apart from the proposals above in the interests of consistency I propose to retain the current scoring system.
  3. Is league happy to continue with the divisional setup?
  4. As a new team was added to the league Dynasty and Keeper proposals will be shelved until 2017-2018
  5. Commissioner will reduce 2-day player pick-up lock to 1-day
  6. Commission will add a weekly waivers limit: 6 transactions.
  7. Weekly locks for players dropped at waivers WILL remain.
  8. I’ll be adding an Injured Reserve spot to each roster. Rules for IR:-
    1. During the NFL season, a team may place a player on IR if they appear on their NFL teams Injured Reserve List. The owner may then utilise the blind bid waiver wire process to replace the player on their active roster.
    2.  IR moves are free
    3. No free agent who is listed as out and then drafted or acquired via the waiver wire is eligible for the IR wire (i.e. a player on IR or out can’t be picked up and stashed on your IR…only active players on your roster are eligible)
    4. A team may only have a maximum 1 players on the IR list at any time.
    5. The official site for determining a player’s status will be NFL.com
    6. A player on the IR list may not be traded to another team
  9. Weekly preview and review articles. MFL auto generates these but they’re a “bit” shit. I particularly enjoy the View from the Pit, but Gavé shouldered every single week on his own last year, does anyone want to help out? There is no format you just write what you want to read.
  10. League chat- The MFL chat is ok, but wasn’t well used. Is everyone still happy to continue with FB or would you like to switch to something else?
  11. I propose that our 2 co-commissioners continue in their post and function as the executive committee.
  12. Draft Day- It looks very likely that draft night will be on Saturday 9th September 2016. We won’t know for sure until the NFL schedule is published in June so please keep the 9th Sept and 26th Aug noted in your diaries. We don’t have a venue for next years draft so if anyone would like to volunteer it would be appreciated (It’s now a necessity that you provide a wifi connection >17Mb, a big screen telly with an hdmi connection and a room capable of holding 12).