Week 15 sees the EFFL semi final games. Pirates are still the favourites at this point, but with not a single game below 100 on the year, are perhaps overdue a bit of bad luck?
We’ll see, there’s some games on Saturday this week – don’t forget your lineups. That’s going to mean scores dotted about all over the weekend – we are not going to know much until Tuesday morning.
Pickaxe at Pirates
8-5 Nitten Pickaxe play the 9-4 Tweedbank Pirates at Gun Knowe Stadium.
Tweedbank Pirates were led in week 14 by a 28.50 point effort from Todd Gurley. In addition, Alvin Kamara was not injured before the start of his week 14 game, and contributed 5.70 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 15 due to a concussion, which might severely limit his fantasy production. Tweedbank Pirates can expect a 21.15 point effort from Drew Brees in week 15.Nitten Pickaxe were led in week 14 by a 36.90 point effort from DeAndre Hopkins. Nitten Pickaxe can expect a 19.25 point effort from Matt Ryan in week 15.
In week 6, Tweedbank Pirates defeated Nitten Pickaxe by 0.32 points, so coach Gav is looking for revenge this week. In the 5-year history of this rivalry, Nitten Pickaxe hold a 2-3-0 all-time series record against Tweedbank Pirates.
That’s right 0.32 points in week six that should have been a 0.62 win for Pickaxe – with a wrongly attributed catch, Pickaxe would have the by and be playing someone else….yadda yadda yadda, who cares? This is where we are at. The leagues top scorer will take some beating, can the mighty Pickaxe be the ones to sink those Pirates?
Pickaxe got away with a disastrous score from Matt Ryan at QB last week, even after picking up Matt Stafford during the week – Stafford’s hand still seems to be causing some problems, though he is fit enough to play. This week Stafford is #9 whilst Ryan is #10 so a tough choice for coach Gav
Pirates have the option of playing just declared fit Aaron Rogers, he is good to go in week 15 and is highly ranked despite a few weeks off. Drew Brees is very hard to bench though – and is ranked higher in the week.
Pickaxe have a woeful history of QB numbers for the year, averaging well below 15, whilst Paul’s Pirates can boast upwards of 16 – it’s a slight advantage to the Pirates here.
Gav’s Pickaxe have ended the season with a quartet of very serviceable running backs, any of Jordan Howard, Carlos Hyde Kenyan Drake or Alex Collins could have a 20 pt. game, the difficulty will be deciding which one to leave out of the team, they are all so closely ranked – between 8 and 16.
Paul has the full house though Todd Gurley is averaging 22, Alvin Kamara 20 and LeSean McCoy 16.5. He’s got this far without injury to any of them and that has to be good news, they are ranked an incredible 2,3,4 this week, its fit and forget for Paul, he could afford for one of them to have a dud game and still come out on top.
Paul is the on paper leader here, but Gav’s Quartet have hit their stride at just the right time, there’s nothing to say they wont equal or better last week’s performance.
DeAndre Hopkins seems to be QB proof is last week is anything to go by. The third string QB in the Texans lineup may struggle a bit against the very tough Jags DST but there should still be enough targets to make his start worthwhile. Marvin Jones is ranked way down at 22, but is coming off a few good weeks, scoring well with receptions even if there has not been a TD.
Paul has Larry Fitzgerald and Jarvis Landry averaging over 16 on the year, and both have a decent floor, expect them both to start this week and get a decent 30 points for Paul between them.
Its pretty even at WR, Gav has the 1 and 4 whilst Paul slots in the middle with 2 and 3 – this will come down to TDs – they’ll be really crucial at WR in particular in this semi
Pickaxe suffered from a bit of miscommunication last week ,Zach Ertz was back, then he wasn’t, but all indications are that he’ll be playing this week and that should be good news for coach Gav, even with the loss of Carson Wentz at QB
Paul appears to be streaming Vernon Davis this week, a reasonable choice and someone more than capable of some big numbers, he has a floor just over 8 on the season, which is more than good enough to get in most EFFL lineups.
Gav has an advantage here, though its not much
Matt Prater and Kai Forbath have been pretty accurate, though both have missed field goals during the season. It will come down to opportunities. Both games have similar under overs at around 42-44, though the Vikings are due to score a couple more – overall score is not important for kickers, as of course field goals are where its at – both games are in Domes, so should not be affected by the weather.
Both Gav and Paul have upgraded for this crucial matchup – Gav going for the Saints against the Jets whilst Paul has the Vikings at home to the Bengals. The jets are actually predicted to score a couple more points than the Bengals, but will be suffering under an unproven QB, which Gav has to hope gives some turnover opps, especially after blowing the waiver budget on a DST.
All together this is probably as close a match up as Gav could have hoped for, whist slightly thinner on the ground than Paul would have wanted. With a huge score on the year, Paul has to be favourite, but we are going to stick our necks out and say that the Pickaxe will get revenged for that robbed game in week 6 and win by a ingle TD.
187s at Tigers
7-6 Kelso 187’s challenge the 9-4 Tranent Tigers at Polson Park.
Kelso 187’s were led in week 14 by a 19.00 point effort from Giovani Bernard. In addition, Josh McCown was not injured before the start of his week 14 game, and contributed -0.46 points, but he’s listed as out in week 15 due to an injured hand. Kelso 187’s can expect a 18.27 point effort from Keenan Allen in week 15.
Tranent Tigers were led in week 14 by a 32.30 point effort from Antonio Brown. Based on projections from Fantasy Sharks, Tranent Tigers can expect a 18.86 point effort from the Baltimore Ravens Defensive Team in week 15.
In week 4, Kelso 187’s defeated Tranent Tigers by 24.04 points, so coach Nicky is looking for revenge this week. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, Kelso 187’s hold a 3-1-0 all-time series record against Tranent Tigers.
Tigers lost their regular season game to the 187s by some margin, have they got enough in the tank to overhaul them in the playoffs?
Euan has had Dak Prescott over the year, and barring two weeks he’s scored well, they were pretty disastrous weeks, but it doesn’t look like that that performance will be repeated, expect closer to 20 pts this week
Mind you Nicky’s Cam Newton has not been totally consistent either, and he’s had a few more weeks around the 10 points than Dak’s couple of blips.
Expect both of these stud QBs to be fine for the week, though if either of them misfire it could be the end of their team.
Neither team has stellar RBs. Euan is looking at Marshawn Lynch and Frank Gore – both averaging just 10 points or so this season. Giovani Bernard might be a better start if Joe Mixon can’t get through the concussion protocol during the week.
Nicky has Isaiah Crowell and CJ Anderson – ranked at 28 and 29 and neither averaging over 10. Bilal Powel and Orleans Darkwa are possibilities, but really they’d be a shot in the dark this week, Nicky has to hope that he can get a regulation 20 pts from Crowell and Anderson.
RB wise, a TD from any one of these 4 players would be a bonus and could really change the face of the game – perhaps Lynch is the most likely to achieve that advantage for Euan.
187s have Keenan Allen, Dez Bryant and probably Josh Gordon at Flex. That’s a pretty healthy trio on any day. Allen is getting 17 pts a game with Dez on near 13, and 30 pts between them is exactly what Euan needs, any less will open the door for Nicky.
Nicky has the ace here, with Antonio Brown, one of the few players in the league with an average above 20 pts – however it’s a big jump down after that to Mike Wallace, averaging less than 10. Added to this is the problem of choosing either an average WR or and average RB at Flex, Kerwyn Williams may get the start there after a quick pick up this evening.
Antonio is the best there is, but its not enough on his own – Euan has an advantage overall here.
Jason Witten will be a solid if not stellar starter for the 187s, there’s certainly no one better on the waivers, and with a 10 pt. average he should get a few on the board for Euan
Travis Kelce gets the nod for Nicky and its easy to see why with a 16 pt. average.
Nicky certainly has an advantage here, with the distinct possibility of a big score
Greg Zuerlein is the better kicker in this matchup – and the Rams are predicted a close, reasonably high scoring game – which is always great for kickers.
Robbie Gould has a home advantage, but his game against the Titans is predicted a lower score, if still balanced – so there will be opportunities.
187s have ended the season with the on fire Jaguars – a DST averaging over 13 pts a game is a season winner, so this will be a real asset for Euan in this semi final
The Ravens are close by though, and have massive potential, averaging 12 pts a game, even with 2 minus scores!
This game is looking like it could go anywhere, both teams have massive potential for success or failure, some of the most erratic players in the league. All in though, Euan has an advantage across the board, and should be through to the final come Tuesday.
Just one more week to go,