EFFL AGM 2017 – Reid Hoose on SuperBowl Night

Current items for the AGM

  1. Change Waivers from Wednesday 0915 to 1915.
  2. Kickers will be awarded 0.1 points for each yard of a successful field goal try. A Field Goal and Extra Point miss will NOT be penalised.  
  3. Proposal for Points Per Reception scoring change. 
  4. Add Individual Defensive Player positions to the starting line-ups. 

 

COMMISSIONER NOTIFICATIONS

  1. We will continue with current league fees unless prices rise at MFL or there is a league requirement to increase the prize pot.
  2. Scoring- Apart from the proposals above in the interests of consistency I propose to retain the current scoring system.
  3. Is league happy to continue with the divisional setup?
  4. As a new team was added to the league Dynasty and Keeper proposals will be shelved until 2017-2018
  5. Commissioner will reduce 2-day player pick-up lock to 1-day
  6. Commission will add a weekly waivers limit: 6 transactions.
  7. Weekly locks for players dropped at waivers WILL remain.
  8. I’ll be adding an Injured Reserve spot to each roster. Rules for IR:-
    1. During the NFL season, a team may place a player on IR if they appear on their NFL teams Injured Reserve List. The owner may then utilise the blind bid waiver wire process to replace the player on their active roster.
    2.  IR moves are free
    3. No free agent who is listed as out and then drafted or acquired via the waiver wire is eligible for the IR wire (i.e. a player on IR or out can’t be picked up and stashed on your IR…only active players on your roster are eligible)
    4. A team may only have a maximum 1 players on the IR list at any time.
    5. The official site for determining a player’s status will be NFL.com
    6. A player on the IR list may not be traded to another team
  9. Weekly preview and review articles. MFL auto generates these but they’re a “bit” shit. I particularly enjoy the View from the Pit, but Gavé shouldered every single week on his own last year, does anyone want to help out? There is no format you just write what you want to read.
  10. League chat- The MFL chat is ok, but wasn’t well used. Is everyone still happy to continue with FB or would you like to switch to something else?
  11. I propose that our 2 co-commissioners continue in their post and function as the executive committee.
  12. Draft Day- It looks very likely that draft night will be on Saturday 9th September 2016. We won’t know for sure until the NFL schedule is published in June so please keep the 9th Sept and 26th Aug noted in your diaries. We don’t have a venue for next years draft so if anyone would like to volunteer it would be appreciated (It’s now a necessity that you provide a wifi connection >17Mb, a big screen telly with an hdmi connection and a room capable of holding 12).

Earlston Super Bowl IV

Panthers Win! Panthers Win!jordy_superbowliv

The week began with some early waiver wire activity by the 69ers as they frantically searched for a startable TE with the No.8 overall, Jordan Reed sidelined by injury. Indeed he would have been a valuable asset for the 69ers with the Panthers heavy reliance on Washington Redskins. In the end, Coach Richie settled for veteran Antonio Gates and his match-up against the worst team at defending fantasy TEs (the Cleveland Browns). The rest of the 69ers starting lineup continued with just WR Tyreek Hill making way for the returning Julio Jones.

As for most of the year, the Panthers stuck with a winning line-up and restarted all of last week’s semi-finalists. In the main, that was a line-up that matched expert rankings with only the decision to go with Cousins over Rivers courting any controversy.

The Panthers had never beaten the 69ers on any of their six previous attempts and the final didn’t start well with TE Zach Ertz posting a disappointing 3.3 on Thursday night. That was the last time Coach Richie enjoyed a final score from a Panther starter.

The early Christmas eve games would be where the final would be won and lost with seven starters going for the Panthers against the 69ers five. It was the Panthers who built an early lead posting 122.8. It most have been galling for the 69ers to watch the No.4 QB, the No. 8 and No. 9 RB, and the No.2 WR scores for the week go against them with only Antonio Gates posting a top 20 positional score. In fact the Panthers score as so dominant even a perfect lineup including Charles Clay and Tyreek Hill wouldn’t have made any difference.

Things did improve for the 69ers late with Andrew Luck and Doug Baldwin clawing back most of the early damage, but unfortunately it just wasn’t enough. A further 10 points for the Chiefs DST finally sealed the victory and Coach Rab’s first championship.

SanFran-Gordon 69ers

104.02-132.8

Pilton Panthers

SanFran-Gordon 69ers Pilton Panthers
QB Andrew Luck 24.72 QB Kirk Cousins 29.8
RB Carlos Hyde 11.2 RB LeSean McCoy 20.5
RB DeMarco Murray 6.0 RB Tevin Coleman 19.5
WR Doug Baldwin 23.7 WR Jordy Nelson 27.4
WR Julio Jones 6.0 WR DeSean Jackson 11.4
F-WR Ty Montgomery 4.0 F-WR Jarvis Landry 2.9
TE Antonio Gates 15.4 TE Zach Ertz 3.3
K Adam Vinatieri 5.0 K Mason Crosby 8.0
DST Green Bay Packers 8.0 DST Kansas City Chiefs 10.0

View From The Pit 2016 – Finals Week

Well We’ve arrived. The final is here and with it the unexpected prospect of the 69ers vs the Panthers. A bit of a turn up and so many high scoring teams left by the wayside. 69ers have a respectable 3rd ranking in the top scorers but Panthers are a lowly 8th. Clearly they’ve been up for it when it counts, but they have played against the least points in total by some margin.

 

The Saints outscored everyone else last week, we’ve had them before, but heres a perfect song for the week

 

Since its finals week we’ll let the MFLbot have its complete say for a change, then there will be some in depth stats bullshit – so get a cup of tea ready.

Go for it MFLBot:

 

Coming up in a week 16 Earlston Fantasy Football League battle, the 7-6 SanFran-Gordon 69ers play the 7-6 Pilton Panthers at Pilton Park.

SanFran-Gordon 69ers were led in week 15 by a 28.30 point effort from Ty Montgomery, who snuck past the Chicago Bears defense for 1 receiving yards in addition to 162 rushing yards. In addition,Jordan Reed was not injured before the start of his week 15 game, and contributed 0.60 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 16 due to an injured shoulder , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

We need to turn up the intensity,” SanFran-Gordon 69ers coach Richie said.

Pilton Panthers were led in week 15 by a 28.90 point effort from LeSean McCoy, who beat the Cleveland Browns defense for 153 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs in addition to 16 receiving yards.

On any given day any team is capable of beating another team,” Pilton Panthers coach Rab said.

In week 7, SanFran-Gordon 69ers defeated Pilton Panthers by 13.68 points, so coach Rab is looking for revenge this week. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, SanFran-Gordon 69ers hold a 6-0-0 all-time series record against Pilton Panthers.

Thanks Bot, I think.

 

You all read that right, Rab’s Panthers have never beaten the niners – but none of that will matter if the trophy gets lifted next week.

 

Lets look at some stats to see where we are at, if you really dont want my stats, but do want my preview – the preview proper starts at the end of the second table – so lots of scrolling on a phone.

STAT TIME – yeah!

These tables contain the real data of; year to date points, the average, the minimum score and the maximum score, those are absolute values and not subject to opinion. However the next 4 columns are less factual – and could be completely misleading:

Median is similar to average score, but is the middle value of the scores for the past 15 weeks – rather than the average.

Cons is consistency – in my calculations it’s the average (Mean for you maths geeks) minus the median score. My feeling is that the lower this value (or closest to zero – negative scores are also ‘bad’) the more consistent the player has been over the season. the reasoning is that the mean score is really strongly affected by a rogue low or high score, whereas the median score is less so. The ideal player would have a high average and also a low Cons number. This is pure conjecture on my part – and I’ve not really checked it out – I worked out consistency a different way a couple of years ago if anyone is interested, however it does show that QBs, TEs and DSTs have higher Cons numbers than the other positions in general.

Closest week is the score that the player got against the same team that they are playing in week 16 or the closest team in terms of points allowed to that position. Rank is the consensus rankings from Fantasypros.com

Niners:

Player/Week YTD Avg Min Max Median Cons closest week rank
Luck, Andrew IND QB 268.44 20.65 11.08 35.50 18.80 1.85 Week 1 – 35.5 3
Hyde, Carlos SFO RB 156.90 13.08 1.40 26.00 12.45 0.63 Week 1 – 21.3 10
Murray, DeMarco TEN RB 233.90 16.71 8.40 26.00 14.85 1.86 Week 8 – 18.8 5
Baldwin, Doug SEA WR 131.50 9.39 2.00 23.90 6.70 2.69 Week 7 – 6.9 14
Hill, Tyreek KCC WR 118.40 8.46 0.70 17.50 7.70 0.76 Week 12 – 17.5 32
Hogan, Chris NEP WR 87.00 6.69 0.00 19.60 5.90 0.79 Week 12 – 7 54
Jones, Julio ATL WR 155.30 12.94 1.60 36.00 13.05 -0.11 Week 4 – 36 7
Montgomery, Ty GBP WR 87.40 6.72 -0.10 28.30 4.40 2.32 Week 2 – 0 20
Reed, Jordan WAS TE 94.60 8.60 0.60 21.50 6.40 2.20 Week 5 – 5.3 11
Clay, Charles BUF TE (Q) 56.70 4.36 0.00 13.20 2.90 1.46 Week 7 – 2.9 18
Gates, Antonio SDC TE 68.90 5.74 0.00 13.50 4.95 0.79 Week 14 – 6.1 10
Henry, Hunter SDC TE (R) 84.50 6.50 0.00 14.30 7.10 -0.60 Week 14 – 7.3 13
Vinatieri, Adam IND PK 128.00 9.14 1.00 21.00 10.00 -0.86 Week 4 – 11 7
Packers, Green Bay GBP Def 85.00 6.07 -3.00 19.00 6.00 0.07 Week 2 – 7 5
Giants, New York NYG Def 116.00 8.29 0.00 23.00 6.00 2.29 Week 9 – 6 9
Possible ‘closest week’ score 161.9

Panthers

Player/Week YTD Avg min max median cons closest week rank
Cousins, Kirk WAS QB 262 18.714 9.96 30.16 18.11 0.604 Week 13- 17.84 8
Rivers, Philip SDC QB 230.2 16.443 9.44 26.36 15.22 1.223 Week 7 – 15.64 6
Coleman, Tevin ATL RB 128.7 11.7 1.7 26.9 11.7 0 Week 4 – 3.3 26
Gillislee, Mike BUF RB 96.6 7.431 -0.4 16.9 7.2 0.231 Week 7 – 2 38
McCoy, LeSean BUF RB 226.2 17.4 1.1 32.2 16.8 0.6 Week 7 – 1.1 3
Yeldon, T.J. JAC RB 88.2 6.3 2 12.9 5.75 0.55 Week 8 – 5.6 35
Ginn Jr., Ted CAR WR 96.8 6.914 0.5 18.8 5.45 1.464 Week 4 – 1.4 46
Jackson, DeSean WAS WR 109.7 8.438 0.5 17.8 5.9 2.538 Week 15 – 11.1 23
Landry, Jarvis MIA WR 123.8 8.843 3 19.6 8.7 0.143 Week 7 – 9.8 21
Nelson, Jordy GBP WR 174.7 12.479 0.9 22.1 12.85 -0.371 Week 2 – 13.3 5
Woods, Robert BUF WR 59.3 5.391 0.5 16.2 4.1 1.291 Week 15 – 0.5 73
Ebron, Eric DET TE 67.8 6.164 0 13.1 5.3 0.864 Week 7 – 7.9 12
Ertz, Zach PHI TE 76.4 6.367 1.4 13.9 5.65 0.717 Week 9 – 9.7 7
Crosby, Mason GBP PK 109 7.786 2 12 8 -0.214 Week 2 – 2 13
Chiefs, Kansas City KCC Def 144 10.286 -2 35 10.5 -0.214 Week 12 – 15 3
Possible ‘closest week’ score
87.64

The ‘closest week’  analysis puts the Niners  favourites by quite some way, nearly doubling the Panthers points and getting the yearly top score to boot – however the consensus rankings put the matchup much closer.

At QB it may be a tough choice for Rab, Pip Rivers is the critics choice in rankings, but its pretty close between him and Cousins, Both look likely to score somewhere between 15 -20 – 25 at the outside. Chargers are eliminated from the playoffs, I cant really see why Rivers is ranked better than Cousins. Either of them will likely not match Andrew Luck’s scoring though, Colts are still in the running for a playoff spot – just, and that could really bring out the best in the QB.

At RB Rab has a very slight advantage for RB1 with Lesean McCoy over Murray in terms of the rankings, however the similar week scores are a total disaster for MCoy. At RB2 its Richie all the way – Carlos Hyde outranks everyone on the Panthers roster and had a great game in week 1 against a better Raiders team.

WR has Jordy Nelson matched against Julio Jones. This is a well balanced pairing, but of course Jones may not yet be fit for Richie. That would be a real disaster and drop his WR 3 way down the rankings. Richie has gambled a bit having just 2 RBs for the final week – so we can guarantee that 3 of these WRs will play. Rab has a bit of choice at WR2  and Flex – but look for Jackson and Landry to get the starts here.

TE  is a bit WTF – how did Richie end up with 4 TEs this week – you know you can only play one right? I could understand if you were trying to disrupt Rab, but all 4 of them are ranked lower than Rab’s Zach Ertz. They are also too colse to call for who will get the start – there will surely be 2 TDs between the four of them – but picking the one who will get one of those, let alone 2, will be sticking a pin. I’m sure we’ll hear some explanation on the chat in any case.

Flex is very close in rankings – expect two Wideouts to start here, Jackson and Montgomery look the most likely, though Julio’s status could change all that of course.

Both teams have solid kickers, Mason Crosby is perhaps a little lowly for this stage in the game, but he’s more than capable. Adam Vinatieri was an expensive pickup way back, but that will look like a good move if he goes 10+ in the final.

Finally DST – the Chiefs have been  bossing it all season for Rab – not the highest averaging, but capable of monster scores. The Packers or the Giants look reasonable choices for Richie, which to go with is a touch decision, but Packers maybe have a little more to lose and will be out for blood.

The biggest interest has to be the Vikings Packers game – though no  one has any Vikings worth mentioning, both teams have a few Packers – and this gone game will almost certainly help decide the whole league destiny. If either team gets 10 more than the other here – that could seal the deal.

And with that its all done – I think I promised some stats last year and never did it – but i will have another look at it and see if there’s some 20 20 hindsight that i can bring you in a couple of weeks- have a great final you 2 , and evetyone else have a great break – see youz in the new year.

 

 

EFFL Semi Finals

A revolution is a struggle to the death between the future and the past.

Perhaps it wasn’t a revolution, but it was certainly a shake-up of the established order. The Semi-Finals saw the last remaining team of the “old guard” despatched and 2 playoff newcomers advance to EFFL Superbowl IV. Both victors posted dominant performances in two closely fought and exciting match-ups. The losing teams will curse their luck, but the two most inconsistent teams in the league finally got their mojo on at just the right point of the season.

SanFran-Gordon 69ers 104.20 @ 87.98 Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars

It was a game that was highlighted more by its absent stars than its star-studded lineups. Both teams were missing their star receivers (Julio Jones and AJ Green respectively) and some frantic (and late) waivers claims punctuated the week.

San-Fran were first on the board on Thursday Night with Doug Baldwin and Steven Hauschka posting a reasonable 15.5 points during Seattle’s pummeling of the LA Rams. However, the game would be decided on Sunday night with 6 69ers and 9 Jaguars playing.

Things started with a bang for the 69ers as Tyreek “the freak” Hill took his only touch of the game 68 yards for a TD on a play that summed up both coaches night. Murray, Luck and Montgomery added 61.2 points in contrast to the Jaguars 6 starters posting 54 points and critically Tyler Eifert’s crushing 0.9 to finish the early evening games. The Jaguars faced a daunting 36 point deficit and their first ever playoff exit.

Drastic action was taken at Jaguars HQ with Janikowski and JJ Nelson added to help boost a pedestrian start. Unfortunately, it just wasn’t enough with the four remaining Jaguars adding just 34 points and despairingly a 56 yard TD drop by Nelson. Carlos Hyde, the Falcons DST and Jordan Reed added 14.7 to pile on the misery for the 2 time champion Jaguars and their first ever season missing the EFFL Superbowl.

The 69ers advance to the EFFL Superbowl for the first time in their history and are the bookies early (and heavy) favourite.

Pilton Panthers 114.5 @ 112.36 Kelso 187’s

It was easily the highest scoring games of the weekend and served noticed that the 4 best teams in the EFFL had made the Semi-Final. It was an (almost) all Sunday affair with 14 of the 18 starters for both teams featuring.

On Saturday evening the 187s Bilal Powell and Panthers Jarvis Landry faced off with both players scoring considerably better than expected, but with a slight advantage going to the Panthers WR (+0.6).

The early Sunday games did little to separate the teams with 4 direct matchups at RB1, WR1, TE and DST. The Panthers McCoy and Chiefs edged Mathews and Texans (+8.6) whereas the 187s Beckham and Rudolph edged Nelson and Ertz (+2.6). Mason Crosby added a healthy 12 points for the Panthers with the 187 pair of Tyrod Taylor and Dwayne Washington added just 19.86. The biggest question on everyone’s mind was whether Coach Euski’s decision to bench Dak Prescott would come back to haunt him.

The evening games went slightly better for the 187s as they began to build a lead. Crabtree and Bryant added 25 points to take their total to 112.36. With every point crucial Prescott’s 19.16 on the 187’s bench was to be their eventual downfall as Cousins and Jackson added 21.8 points to take the game at the last gasp.

This was the 5th straight victory for the rampant Panthers despite being underdogs in 4 of those games. They now face another first-time finalist in the 69ers, a team they have never beaten in 6 previous attempts.

 

View From The Pit 2016 – semi finals week 15

Here we are then, four teams left and at least two of them quite unexpected before last week. Stuart’s Avengers must be still shell shocked, but that’s the way it goes, one of these four will have their name on the trophy in just two weeks time.

The falcons did it again last week with a monster 42 vs the Rams,we’ve had that team tune already, so I’ll use it as an excuse to put this far out video from Atlanta’s Mastodon

 

69ers at Jaguars

7-6 SanFran-Gordon 69ers face off against the 11-2 Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars at Greendale Stadium.

SanFran-Gordon 69ers were led in week 14 by a 26.00 point effort from Carlos Hyde.

Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars were led in week 14 by a 21.24 point effort from Aaron Rodgers. In addition, Donte Moncrief was not injured before the start of his week 14 game, and contributed 0.00 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 15 due to an injured hamstring , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

In week 2, Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars defeated SanFran-Gordon 69ers by 14.70 points, so coach Richie is looking for revenge this week. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, SanFran-Gordon 69ers hold a 0-4-0 all-time series record against Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars.

Richie has made five changes today in a bid for last minute glory, though it looks likely that only Hauschka and The Falcons will get the start this weekend. That added depth could be helpful in the final week if Richie makes it and with just that one week to go it was maybe a canny move, as the other contenders are down a few more players that they can pick from. The starters for the niners look strong., no one ranked below 17 (Tyreek Hill at flex). ?however there’s no top 1 or 2 players with that guarantee of 100 yds and a TD and no guarantees for those early teen ranked players. Demarco Murray is surely the standout here, with just one week below 10 pts, and even that at 8.5, he’s a strong contender this week despite his ‘lowly’ #5 ranking, the Chiefs have let in 17.5 pts to opposing RBs this year on average, so there’s a good chance at both yards and TDs. Julio Jones could be the make or break for Richie this week, he’s recovering from a bit of turf toe, and the signs point to the Falcons leaning on the run a bit more against the 49ers, but can you really leave out Jones from your starting lineup? it would be a brave coach who benched him, and he only needs one long catch to make his selections worthwhile, who knows..

Jimmy’s two time winning Jags have failed to break 100 pts for 4 weeks in a row  now, is this the beginning of the end for the early unstoppable Jaguars? I’  not sure, its been a regulation 95 pts for 3 of those 4 weeks and lineup choices could have made it 99 in the lowest of the 4, so there are still points in the team yet. However, rankings wise there is no contest at all, Jimmy is behind at all positions except QB, TE and DST. Lets think about that though – QB, TE and DST also have the highest deviation in points (maybe besides some pretty huge kicker outliers this season) QBs have been 10-30ish – TEs 0-15 and DST from minus pts to 20 or so. RB1 and WR1 are must more consistent at the 10-20 pt with similar but shorter scores for the other positions. That wee stats interlude tells us this – although he’s outranked, Jimmy has given himself the better chance in the positions with the most ‘swing’ so don’t count this team out just yet. Aaron Rogers looks to be the star yet again, but maybe this is the week that Doug Martin proves his £86 flex dollar value – he’s ranked as a pretty solid flex play this week and that could translate to a very reasonable 7-15 pts.

The 49ers Falcons game is where Richie has to make his points, that has to wait till after 9 on sunday though, but still he should know which way the wind is blowing before bed time. If Jones and the Falcons DST have more than 20 between them (apart from the 10 starting dst pts) by 10.30 Sunday night this looks to be going Richie’s way. On the other side its the Steelers Bengals Game, Tyler Eiffert is absolutely crucial to Jimmy’s chance at a third league title, and if AJ Green is fit, that’s a big bonus, but its a big if too. Jimmy will want a bit more from these 2, maybe 25 between them, to feel fairly secure going into the later games.

In the end though, I’m calling it for the 69ers, Richie may get a chance at that trophy after all.

Panthers at 187s

7-6 Pilton Panthers, who hope to extend their 3 game winning streak, face off against the 8-5 Kelso 187’s at Compton Palace.

Pilton Panthers were led in week 14 by a 16.80 point effort from LeSean McCoy.

Kelso 187’s were led in week 14 by a 15.40 point effort from Odell Beckham. In addition, Michael Crabtree was not injured before the start of his week 14 game, and contributed 2.10 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 15 due to an injured finger , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

In week 4, Kelso 187’s defeated Pilton Panthers by 22.90 points, so coach Rab is looking for revenge this week. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Pilton Panthers hold a 2-1-0 all-time series record against Kelso 187’s.

So, the Panthers lucked out facing a crash and burn Avengers team last week, but here they are and no one’s run to the playoffs has been a gift, so a justified semi final place for Rab. Kirk cousins has been solid, though his average has been boosted by a couple of monster weeks, and in reality most of the season has been 15-18 rather than his 19 pts a game average, however he has the good to justify his #3 rank this week facing a middle of the road pass Defense in Carolina. Pip rivers is worth a look though, he has the Raiders at home this week and they’ve let in almost the exact same pts to opposing QBs in 17.5 this season. Lesean Mcoy and Jordy Nelson have been pretty solid for Rab all season with just one serious blip for Nelson way back in week 7, anything less than 25 pts between the tow of them will leave the Panthers on a shoogly peg this week. Elsewhere in the lineup Tevin Coleman and Desean Jackson look to be getting starts and should keep the pts ticking over during the game. Mason crosby and the Chiefs ahve as good a chance as anyone to get some ‘bonus’ pts for the Panthers. Fle might end up being more of a tricky decision, jarvis Landry is ranked a little higher, but there is generally a higher floor for RBs in these lower ranks, so either Yeldon or Gillislee could be tempting for Rab.

187s, though putting up the numbers during the season, are  now seriously struggling for a bit of depth. Odell Beckham is of course the star, and Dak Prescott has been confounding his critics all year long (though he still ranks a lowly 15 in QBs). RB is the problem here, Bilal Powel and Ryan Matthews were nowhere near anyone’s top picks in the draft but that’s where we’ve ended up for the 187s. Sure on good days they are more than capable of getting those all important TDs, Powel was close to 30 last week after all, but the week beopfe that was .3, and there’s been plenty of other weeks less than 5 too. Matthews has been more consistent, b ut his average is skewed by a monster performance in week 10 and very little else. Euan could well be relying on the less glory laden positions to get through to the final – TE, Kicker and DST look to be ranked in his favour, in fact, though Kye Rudolph is only averaging just over 7 pts a game, he has one of the best floors of all TE’s, as they’ve been so inconsistent. Texans will likely get the start over the Giants at DST and the Jaguars have allowed nearly 10 pts a game to opposition DST, so there’s a good chance for points there.

Whilst no game stands out as being make or break for this matchup, the Carolina at Washington game has opposing interest for these two and also the Lions at Giants. with the Washinton game on Monday night it will surely be a late decision as to who reaches the final.

 

 

EFFL Wildcard Weekend

The wildcard weekend certainly lived up to its name despite the dearth of fantasy scoring around the NFL this weekend (unless you were a LeVeon Bell owner). The margins for error were small and every lineup choice was crucial. In a weird twist of fate both of our wildcard teams were heavy favourites against our third and fourth seed division winners, but as Burns said “The best-laid schemes o’ mice an’ men, Gang aft agley”

SanFran-Gordon 69ers 76.54 @ 75.12 Tweedbank Pirates
The SanFran-Gordon 69ers entered their matchup with Tweedbank Pirates as early 8 point favourites, but the loss of star receiver Julio Jones changed everything leaving the Pirates as slight favourites with the emergency addition of Breshard Perriman. Perriman was described as “having no value to teams in the fantasy playoffs”, but of course value is in the eye of the beholder!
The 69ers decided to roll with a 2 RB/3WR split with surprise starts for Jordan Reed, Terrelle Pryor and the Lions DST over Tyreek Hill, Antonio Gates and the Steelers who all had superior matchups. Both 69ers RBs (Murray and Hyde) and their QB (Luck) faced tough matchups with Vinatieri and Baldwin rounding out the starters.
The Pirates had the benefit of a settled lineup with flex the only one up for grabs. In the end, the upside of Dion Lewis won out over Justin Forsett although Cobb and Coleman were also contenders. Stafford started at QB with Gurley and Jennings leading at RB. The WRs picked themselves with Hilton balancing Luck’s 69er output and future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald. Kelce, Santos and the Vikings rounded out the rest of the starters.

Pirates were on the board first with Kelce making a healthy 10.10, but Santos could only muster a disappointing 3 on Thursday Night Football.

The early Sunday games helped maintain the Pirates lead with Hilton offsetting Luck, but Fitzgeralds brutal 1.2 in a monsoon in Miami would have caused concern if it hadn’t been balanced by the 69ers Pryor anonymous 0.3 outing. Further pain was lessened with Reed managing a paltry 1.0. Stafford produced a decent outing for the Pirates at 16.42. The defences also squared off in the early games with the Pirates again having the edge +3, but this was balanced by Vinatieri’s advantage over Santos (+2). With some tough matchups to come for the 69ers things looked good for the Pirates.
However, the late and night games on Sunday finally got the 69ers back into the tie with Carlos Hyde and DeMarco Murray producing the goods with a 21.2 position swing. The tie rested on the Monday Night matchup between the Ravens and Patriots although the Pirates could have confidence from a 2 point cushion and an expected heavy workload for Lewis.
Of course, “Belichick hates your fantasy team” and unfortunately for the Pirates, the Patriots changed their normal game plan against a tough run D and spent most of the evening pounding with Blount rather than using their more dynamic RB. Lewis saw minimal touches and produced a paltry 1.9. That was enough for Perriman to break open the game with a 47-yard sideline catch to win the game for the 69ers (76.54-75.12) and set up a grudge match with 2-time champion Jaguars.

Kelsae Avengers 57.3 @ 92.76 Pilton Panthers

It’s a game in which every GM not in the playoffs felt Stuart’s pain and everyone still in the playoffs breathed a sigh of relief as the high-flying Avengers crashed out.

The Avengers were early and heavy favourites in this game with a 16 point advantage. Analysis backed this view with the Avengers scoring more than 100 points in 10 of their 13 regular season games and averaging a dizzying 115 points over the last 5 weeks of the season. In contrast, the Panthers had broken 100 points only twice during the season and averaged just 89 points over the final 5 weeks of the season.

But when it goes wrong in fantasy it goes wrong spectacularly. Both teams put out their best line-ups although the one question mark with the Avengers was their heavy reliance on Seahawks in evening matchup against the Panthers best player Jordy Nelson (Packers).

Both teams put out their best line-ups although the one question mark with the Avengers was their heavy reliance on Seahawks in an evening matchup against the Panthers best player Jordy Nelson (Packers).

The game got underway well for the Avengers with Latavius Murray posting an excellent 16.3 points on Thursday Night, but an ominous 11 point game from the Chiefs DST kept the Panthers in touch…however, things went downhill quickly from there.

The early Sunday games started badly for the Avengers and they found themselves facing a very large deficit as Cousins, Jackson and McCoy all posted big numbers for the Panthers as Newton, LaFell, McManus, and critically, David Johnson all came up small for the Avengers. The Panthers could even afford the error of starting Gillislee over Tevin Coleman as they took a 21 point lead to the evenings crucial matchup between Seattle and Green Bay.

The lead would have been worrying for the Avengers, but with the Mike Evans facing the Saints and the Seattle trio of Rawls, Jimmy Graham and the DST they were expected to claw back the Panthers unexpected early lead. In fact, Seattle were 3 point favourites despite being the road team against the Packers.

What happened next probably doesn’t need repeating. The Packers destroyed the Seahawks at Lambeau with Jordy Nelson scoring 10 points more than all 3 Seahawks combined and with Mike Evans making a paltry 4 points against the #29 pass defence it was up to Panthers K Mason Crosby  and his 8 points to apply the coup de gras on the Avengers wonderful season.

The Panthers face the Kelso 187’s in next week’s semi final.

View from the pit 2016 – Wildcard week

So that’s it, another regular season over with and back to square one for 6 of us and counting, with a chance for glory for our other six challengers.

The Colts led the way in week 13, putting the Jets to the sword along with the hopes of at least a couple of teams in the EFFL.

Lets go with this from Norwegian super serious death folk ambient collective Wardruna – basically, it’s my lovely horse with some chanting in the background, but it suits the mood for at least six of us.

anyway, the two wildcard games:

69ers at Pirates

 

7-6 SanFran-Gordon 69ers face off against the 7-6 Tweedbank Pirates at Gun Knowe Stadium.

SanFran-Gordon 69ers were led in week 13 by a 29.72 point effort from Andrew Luck. In addition, Julio Jones was not injured before the start of his week 13 game, and contributed 11.30 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 14 due to an injured toe , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

Tweedbank Pirates were led in week 13 by a 23.84 point effort from Matthew Stafford, who beat the New Orleans Saints defense for 341 passing yards and 2 passing TDs in addition to 22 rushing yards.

In week 9, SanFran-Gordon 69ers defeated Tweedbank Pirates by 21.62 points, so coach Paul is looking for revenge this week. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, SanFran-Gordon 69ers hold a 5-0-0 all-time series record against Tweedbank Pirates.

69ers season has been very solid, in fact they’ve never dipped below 95 potential points, however lineup choice has not always been the strongest, and there’s been some weeks where Richie has left a load of points on the bench. andrew Luck seems back into winning ways with a pretty monster score last week and looks set to continue that trend for the playoff weeks. Julio Jones is a bit of a worry, with 3 game sthis season sitting around 2 points, but really he’s still a must start and a reasonable match up for week 14. Demarco Murray is surely fit and forget and has only one performance under 10 points all year. The rest of the lineup look good enough too, though there’s room for a new TE and DST in the lineup should Richie choose that route.

Looking at the scoring history for both teams here, what is clear is that Paul’s Pirates have had less consistency over the whole team, but they always had at least a couple of studs do enough to take the game, at least that’s true for the week Paul has won, there have been a worrying 4 weeks hovering around the 75 pt mark or less, and that simply isnt enough to take a semi spot in the EFFL. One of the studs that have boosted the average pts for the Pirates was certainly the vikings DST at the start of then season,  but they’ve failed to live up to that early promise in the latter part of the regular season. Matt stafford and TY Hilton look good enough this week, but elsewhere in the lineup there are some big question marks. TD dependency has been the problem for Paul in those off weeks, wiht just not enough guaranteed yards anywhere in the squad. Travis Kelce is a lone highlight in the rankings when comparing to 69ers, but TE consisitency has been non exisitent throughout then league so you simply canoot rely on that to take you through.

Its an uphill battle for Paul, but not outside the realms of possibility. The Pit thinks that this game is the niner’s to lose. The colts Texans game could decide the outcome of this matchup – as TY Hilton has a decent chance to hoover up any points advantage that Andrew Luck might get – if that doesn’t happen I’d suspect it’s a trip to Davy Jones’ Locker for the Pirates.

Avengers at Panthers

8-5 Kelsae Avengers, who hope to extend their 3 game winning streak, face off against the 7-6 Pilton Panthers at Pilton Park.

Kelsae Avengers were led in week 13 by a 29.50 point effort from David Johnson.

Pilton Panthers were led in week 13 by a 19.10 point effort from LeSean McCoy.

In week 8, Kelsae Avengers defeated Pilton Panthers by 5.70 points, so coach Rab is looking for revenge this week. In the 2-year history of this rivalry, Kelsae Avengers hold a 1-1-0 all-time series record against Pilton Panthers.

Avengers are the team to beat this year, lets be clear, they would have won every other division but Uhura, have faced way more points against than Jimmy and still have a decent budget for waivers in the morning, Panthers will have to go some to get through here.

David Johnson is averaging 21 points a game, more than most teams QBs, and his wee ‘blips’ of closer to 10 points seem a long time ago now. What that means is that the pressure is really off when it comes to Stuart having to select an RB2, there’s no need for TDs and as long as they look likely to get 60- 80 yds the RB combined score should be well over the regulation 20. Mike Evans is also ranked #1 this week, ending up with the #1 RB and WR at the end of the season is no mean feat, whether its luck or judgement I’ll leave other readers to decide. But of course that’s not all, Jimmy graham is now #1 too – we’ve said it before a couple of times, but that was some draft pick – right under everyone elses sneering noses. Cam has gone off the boil a bit in the last couple of weeks, but he’s still good for a floor of around 16, which is nothing to sniff at.

McCoy is no slouch at R1 for the Panthers, and 15 pt average is not to be sniffed at, but that’s 5 behind Johnson. Kirk Cousins has been very up and down, and recovering the week 11 and 12 from may prove tricky against the Eagles away from home. Jordy ?MNelson and the chiefs DST have been quietly putting up the numbers all season and there’s no reason to think that they both are not capable of 10 pts plus this week. Elsewhere in the Panthers team Ebron, Coleman  and Jackson are capable of great things, but their consistency has been poor all season. gs only need to swing by maybe 15

This match up has Avengers written all over it on paper, but things only need to swing towards Rab by 15 pts or so to see this clash go the other way – meaning if Rab’s Panthers can generate an extra 2 TDs over predicted and Johnson is limited to just yards on the weekend, they could be through. This looks like being the bigger scoring wildcard game, and I can see 110 points not being enough for one of these teams, however the more likely outcome is Stuart’s Avengers by 15

View from the Pit 2016 week 13

Week 13 is here, and with it we’ll be saying goodbye to six teams till 2017, seems a long way away the now but it rolls around quick dont you think?

 

week 12 saw the Saints clock up some awesome numbers, though one Brandin cooks must be wondering what he did wrong to not be a part of the actions, anyway, here’s the meters with one of the most sampled songs ever.

 

Avengers at Jaguars

7-5 Kelsae Avengers face off against the 11-1 Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars at Greendale Stadium.
Kelsae Avengers were led in week 12 by a 22.40 point effort from Mike Evans. In addition, David Johnson was not injured before the start of his week 12 game, and contributed 22.10 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 13 due to an injured finger , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars were led in week 12 by a 23.12 point effort from Aaron Rodgers. In addition, Lamar Miller was not injured before the start of his week 12 game, and contributed 6.50 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 13 due to an injured ankle , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

In week 3, Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars defeated Kelsae Avengers by 37.88 points, so coach Stuart is looking for revenge this week. In the 2-year history of this rivalry, Kelsae Avengers hold a 1-2-0 all-time series record against Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars.

Jimmy’s run finally came to an unceremonious end last week, with the Jags posting their lowest score of the year, and plenty of points on the bench. However, that’s just academic as they’ve been safely through for a while now.

Avengers have to win to be sure of a wildcard slot, and 8-5 would have been enough to take any of the other divisions, so Stuart will be raging if by shear fluke he doesn’t make it. But beating jimmy may be enough encouragement he needs for this week in any case. Jimmy Graham and David Johnson will surely get some points on the board with their #1 rankings for the week, neither has disappointed too often this season. Cam Newton is a bit lower down the pecking order this week, and there could be a waiver option there for coach Stuart if he’s prepared to take that risk. All in all this looks like a great lineup though, Stuart has maybe had a bit more luck than some with injuries, but the team has solidified and almost everyone in it is punching above their draft position.

Jimmy can rest easy if he likes, now that the chance for a perfect season is done. But unless he drops all of his players there is a formidable lineup somewhere here for sure. WR has taken a bit of a dent, but there’s still options and Moncreif Shepard and Boyd are surely guaranteed a TD between them – but who to leave out? RB is not a lot easier, but perhaps all of the 4 possibles will more than likely net a TD and/or 100 yards, so less of a problem for Jimmy in choosing. Eifert was left on the Bench ch last week but Zach Ertz didn’t really show that hes capable of putting a consistent score up,so expect the Bengal to be back in the squad.

This game likely doesn’t matter too much, but its still Stuart who wants the victory more, to ensure a better run at the payoffs, given the lineups,  i think that’s likely. There’s not really anyone else who cares too much about this result, it will affect someone somehow, but you’ll need to look at the other post for that one.

187s at 69ers

8-4 Kelso 187’s play the 6-6 SanFran-Gordon 69ers at Castle Greyskull.

Kelso 187’s were led in week 12 by a 21.70 point effort from Dak Prescott. In addition, Chris Ivory was not injured before the start of his week 12 game, and contributed 11.50 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 13 due to an injured hamstring , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

SanFran-Gordon 69ers were led in week 12 by a 21.50 point effort from Jordan Reed.

187s have clinched their spot and can maybe take it easy, but they have the chance to ruin Richie’s season and leave him waiting for next year. Its not over for Richie with a loss, but it will be a much more complicated route, reliant on several other games.

Euan’s 187s are riding high, but they only have the 6th best scoring this year and have never had the top in a week, there’s been a couple of blips on the scorecard too, so this is by no means plain sailing. Euan needs a DST too, there’s plenty on the wire, but choosing could be  a challenge. Melvin Gordon and Odell Beckham will surely get somewhere north of 30 between them, leaving the rest here to pick up perhaps 70 points between the7 of them. Dak Prescott is pretty much a shoe in for his share, but no one else has the same guarantee.

69ers are still struggling despite their top 3 score on the year. A big chunk of that average came in just week 4 though, only 4 of the other weeks have been over 100. Julio Jones  and Doug Baldwin are the big stars here, and have been outstanding most of the season. Demarco Murray and Terelle Prior on a bye in the last game is bad timing, but there’s no excuse for not making plans to cope with that. Carlos Hyde should put up better than average numbers but can Damian Williams or Robert Turbin come close to their regulation 10 points, not without a TD I’d suggest.

This game could be close, but I’m giving it to 187s given that they have the advantage at RB, and therefore likely to see consistent yards. It could easily go the other way if Richie’s WR end up chasing their games, a 50 yd TD for example could swing this tie Richie’s way.

Bohemians at Fire

6-6 Earlstonian Bohemians play the 4-8 Fife Fire at Balbirnie Stadium.
Earlstonian Bohemians were led in week 12 by a 22.80 point effort from Michael Thomas,

Fife Fire were led in week 12 by a 33.50 point effort from Drew Brees.

Even the bot has very little to say about this game. Fire have just not got going in 2016, and have now lost any chance of a playoff spot, that could be good news for the Bohos though who need this win badly to have a chance.
Ally’s Boho’s are looking pretty comfortable, with their formidable RB team and Russell Wilson seemingly back on form there’s a good chance of a playoff spot. WR is less secure, Thomas, Watkins and Diggs are surely in the mix for a spot this week, and any one of them capable of the big plays given a chance. We could see yet more changes with a streamer for TE or DST, but Bennet and the Ravens should be more than capable of getting at least a few points on the board.

Fire have the dubious honour of having the lowest score 4 times this season – there’s not really any rhyme or reason to that, as the rankings suggest this team to be comfortably mid table, but for whatever reason they’ve just not fired on all cylinders. This week though, Drew Brees is ranked #1 and that can perhaps set the spark to see the Fire go out with a bang? unfortunately, so one else in the squad is ranked within the top 10 and that will mean short yardage with just the outside chance of TDs for the team. With no one there who’s averaging 15 or more, it really needs everyone to get lucky the same week to see a win. That could happen, and of course, there has been some bad luck for Shaun, so perhaps he’s due something this week?

The prediction is for a Boho win by some margin, but if Shaun uses some of his vast waiver fortune in the morning, no one can stop him picking up exactly who he wants, a TE and a new DST have to be high on that list for a start.

Fog at Panthers

6-6 Fog on the Tyne challenge the 6-6 Pilton Panthers at Pilton Park.
Fog on the Tyne were led in week 12 by a 19.70 point effort from Devonta Freeman. In addition, Rob Gronkowski was not injured before the start of his week 12 game, and contributed 0.00 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 13 due to an injured back , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Fog on the Tyne can expect a 18.76 point effort from Derek Carr in week 13.

Pilton Panthers were led in week 12 by a 30.16 point effort from Kirk Cousins. In addition, Gary Barnidge was not injured before the start of his week 12 game, and contributed 1.10 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 13 due to an injured knee , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Fog on the Tyne hold a 2-2-0 all-time series record against Pilton Panthers.

Fog could go through even at the bottom of their division, but they really need this win to happen for them. the rankings suggest that they are marginally behind Panthers at most positions, but its not a chasm, and of course Panther need to pick up a TE from the wire – with a few folk looking that way too, that could be harder than it appears. Adrian Peterson is apparently close to return, but surely it will not be this week, meaning Freeman and Forte should get starts, there’s 150 yards and a TD between them with any justice, so that averages out at regulation 10 pts. Edelmann and Cole Beasley look not quite so safe, Beasley in particular has gone from the darling of the waiver wire to not a look in just over  a month, can he pick it up for Fog in this last regular season game?

Panthers are finishing well, and a win this weekend clinches a place without worrying about anyone else. Lesean Mccoy and Jordy Nelson should be the ones to get the bulk of the points this week, but any gaps in their perform ace will open a big hole for the Fog to come in. Cousins is on a roll, but that doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed a start over Pip Rivers, who faces a slightly easier matchup in week 13, a tough choice for Rab, there’s bound to be advice out there on the web, but in the end it will be the higher scoring game that is likely to give the higher scoring QB, and Rab has to hope he picks wisely. Picking up a TE could be problematic this week, as there are several people in the league in the same position, Rab has a budget, but it will be finding a player who can score big that is the problem.

This looks close. A big scoring game would be a fine end for both these seasons, but not satisfactory if you don’t make the playoffs, and I don’t think they both can.

Pirates at Earthquakes

6-6 Tweedbank Pirates play the 3-9 Earlston Earthquakes at The Cauldie.
Tweedbank Pirates were led in week 12 by a 17.46 point effort from Carson Wentz. In addition, T.Y. Hilton was not injured before the start of his week 12 game, and contributed 5.40 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 13 due to an injured back , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

Earlston Earthquakes were led in week 12 by a 33.14 point effort from Colin Kaepernick.

In week 3, Tweedbank Pirates defeated Earlston Earthquakes by 64.84 points, so coach Cozy is looking for revenge this week. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, Tweedbank Pirates hold a 3-4-0 all-time series record against Earlston Earthquakes.

Pirates can go through with a win here and with the Quakes out already that is possible. However Paul has to get past an angry Cozy to do that. The wind has gone from the Pirates sails somewhat over the last few weeks, sure there have been wins and a great score in week 11, but its been around 70 most of the last month or so. Todd Gurley is surely guaranteed an RB start but as for the other slot and a flex, there’s a load of slightly scrappy players to choose from. Its likely at least one of them will have a decent game, but predicting it could be tricky. Hilton Fitzgerald and perhaps Cobb are maybe more secure in their WR positions and Kelce has proved his worth as a TE receiver too.

It all came together for the quakes over the last two weeks, that’s a bit of a kick in the teeth when you are out so fair play for sticking with it. Cozy has the advantage this week for sure though, the Quakes can field higher ranked players at most positions except QB and TE, WR2 could be the only spot where Paul has a significant advantage. There’s not really any need for waivers, though both teams have inexplicably ended up with kickers ranked in the 20‘s, not that it matters too much for kickers, but there will be free for all waiver kickers that are available come 10:00 tomorrow. Mark Ingram, Amari copper and the Pats DST shout lead the scoring for Cozy, with Kaepernick putting in a decent week at QB too.

Paul might be pleading that this one doesn’t matter to Cozy, but if the last two weeks are anything to go by that will fall on deaf ears, and if he sets his prime lineup Cozy looks likely to burst Paul’s bubble.

Tigers at Pickaxe

4-8 Tranent Tigers, who hope to end their 4 game losing streak, play the 5-7 Nitten Pickaxe at New Victoria Park.
Tranent Tigers were led in week 12 by a 27.10 point effort from Antonio Brown. Tranent Tigers can expect a 15.83 point effort from Tom Brady in week 13.

Nitten Pickaxe were led in week 12 by a 24.00 point effort from Ezekiel Elliott, who got by the Washington Redskins defense for 97 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs in addition to 23 receiving yards.

In week 3, Nitten Pickaxe defeated Tranent Tigers by 41.40 points, so coach Nicky is looking for revenge this week. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Tranent Tigers hold a 2-3-0 all-time series record against Nitten Pickaxe.

Last but not least Nicky’s Tigers take on Gav’s Pickaxe. The Tigers have lost their teeth a bit come the end of the season and its all over for them. Tom Brady and Antonio Brown have been the sole highlights in an otherwise lacking season, just two weeks over 100 and quite a few less than 75. If there are going to be points this week, they will surely come in the air from Brady, Brown, Demaryius Thomas and Vance Macdonald. Bibbs and Langford at RB are looking likely to be TD dependant for anything like a regulation 10 points, but of course stranger things have happened.

Gav’s season is reliant on this and the Panthers Game. That’s a decent shot at the division though, and as usual there’s a pretty good chance at 90-100 pts in the squad. Last weeks kicker and DST points were a massive bonus, and the lack of a single look form Brandin Cooks is a huge worry if he’s done something to upset Brees, but there doesn’t seem to be any explanation online as to what happened, with their monster score, it surely wasn’t just luck and coverage that saw him left out?  Zeke Elliot and Dez Brant on the other hand continue to score well. Bryant is missing the TDs but is putting up good yardage and seems to be getting a fair share of the looks from Dak Prescott. Ben Roethlisberger seems to be back in decent form, whilst alternative Matt Ryan is just passable, Big Ben likely to get the start for this final regular season week.

With that, we’ll be saying goodbye to 6 of these teams till next year, as we will only be focusing on the competitive games from now on.

Road to the Playoffs

All 64 remaining scenarios were analysed. No possibility of tied games was considered.

The maximum points any team could gain or lose used in tiebreaker calculations was 74.

Note: Some ‘weak division’ scenarios (25%) may have impacted wildcard calculations (see instructions).

No scenario was analysed in which a team with less than 6 wins got a wildcard spot.

In all scenarios analysed 8 wins was guaranteed a wildcard spot.

Earlstonian Bohemians (6-6-0)…. Division odds: Clinch 25%. Tie 25%. Wildcard odds: Clinch 18%. Tie 6%.
Kelsae Avengers (7-5-0)…. ELIMINATED from division race. Wildcard odds: Clinch 84%. Tie 0%.
Kelso 187’s (8-4-0)…. CLINCHED a DIVISION spot!
Tranent Tigers (4-8-0)…. ELIMINATED from playoff contention.
Tweedbank Pirates (6-6-0)….. Division odds: Clinch 50%. Tie 25%. Wildcard odds: Clinch 0%. Tie 6%.
Pilton Panthers (6-6-0)…. ELIMINATED from wildcard race but still in division race. Division odds: Clinch 75%. Tie 0%.
Earlston Earthquakes (3-9-0)…. ELIMINATED from playoff contention.
Nitten Pickaxe (5-7-0)…. Division odds: Clinch 25%. Tie 0%. Wildcard odds: Clinch 12%. Tie 0%.
Fife Fire (4-8-0)…… ELIMINATED from playoff contention.
SanFran-Gordon 69ers (6-6-0)…. ELIMINATED from division race. Wildcard odds: Clinch 68%. Tie 0%.
Fog on the Tyne (6-6-0)…. ELIMINATED from division race. Wildcard odds: Clinch 34%. Tie 0%.
Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars (11-1-0)… CLINCHED a DIVISION spot!

Upcoming round’s DIVISION paths-to-clinch (if any)…

Earlstonian Bohemians CLINCH a Division spot IF:
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Earlstonian Bohemians BEAT Fife Fire

Earlstonian Bohemians clinch at least a tie for a Division spot (points tiebreaker to resolve) IF:
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates
Could fight for points tiebreaker with: Tweedbank Pirates

Tweedbank Pirates CLINCH a Division spot IF:
Tweedbank Pirates BEAT Earlston Earthquakes

Tweedbank Pirates clinch at least a tie for a Division spot (points tiebreaker to resolve) IF:
Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians
Could fight for points tiebreaker with: Earlstonian Bohemians

Pilton Panthers CLINCH a Division spot IF:
Pilton Panthers BEAT Fog on the Tyne; OR
Tranent Tigers BEAT Nitten Pickaxe

Nitten Pickaxe CLINCH a Division spot IF:
Fog on the Tyne BEAT Pilton Panthers -AND- Nitten Pickaxe BEAT Tranent Tigers

Upcoming round’s PLAYOFF paths-to-clinch (if any)…

Earlstonian Bohemians CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Earlstonian Bohemians BEAT Fife Fire; OR
Earlstonian Bohemians BEAT Fife Fire -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers; OR
Earlstonian Bohemians BEAT Fife Fire -AND- Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars BEAT Kelsae Avengers

Earlstonian Bohemians clinch at least a tie for a Playoff spot (points tiebreaker to resolve) IF:
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Pilton Panthers BEAT Fog on the Tyne -AND- Tranent Tigers BEAT Nitten Pickaxe
Could fight for points tiebreaker with: Tweedbank Pirates , SanFran-Gordon 69ers

Kelsae Avengers CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Kelsae Avengers BEAT Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars; OR
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Pilton Panthers BEAT Fog on the Tyne; OR
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians; OR
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers; OR
Pilton Panthers BEAT Fog on the Tyne -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians; OR
Pilton Panthers BEAT Fog on the Tyne -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers; OR
Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers

Tweedbank Pirates CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Tweedbank Pirates BEAT Earlston Earthquakes

Tweedbank Pirates clinch at least a tie for a Playoff spot (points tiebreaker to resolve) IF:
Pilton Panthers BEAT Fog on the Tyne -AND- Tranent Tigers BEAT Nitten Pickaxe -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians
Could fight for points tiebreaker with: Earlstonian Bohemians, SanFran-Gordon 69ers

Pilton Panthers CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Pilton Panthers BEAT Fog on the Tyne; OR
Tranent Tigers BEAT Nitten Pickaxe

Nitten Pickaxe CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Fog on the Tyne BEAT Pilton Panthers -AND- Nitten Pickaxe BEAT Tranent Tigers; OR
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Nitten Pickaxe BEAT Tranent Tigers -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians; OR
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Nitten Pickaxe BEAT Tranent Tigers -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers; OR
Nitten Pickaxe BEAT Tranent Tigers -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers

SanFran-Gordon 69ers CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
SanFran-Gordon 69ers BEAT Kelso 187’s; OR
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians; OR
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Pilton Panthers BEAT Fog on the Tyne -AND- Tranent Tigers BEAT Nitten Pickaxe; OR
Pilton Panthers BEAT Fog on the Tyne -AND- Tranent Tigers BEAT Nitten Pickaxe -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians

Fog on the Tyne CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Fog on the Tyne BEAT Pilton Panthers -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians; OR
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Fog on the Tyne BEAT Pilton Panthers -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers; OR
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Fog on the Tyne BEAT Pilton Panthers -AND- Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars BEAT Kelsae Avengers; OR
Fog on the Tyne BEAT Pilton Panthers -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers; OR
Fog on the Tyne BEAT Pilton Panthers -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians -AND- Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars BEAT Kelsae Avengers; OR
Fog on the Tyne BEAT Pilton Panthers -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers -AND- Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars BEAT Kelsae Avengers

View From the Pit 2016 – Week 12

Week 12 is here – 1 team through and 1 team out – there’s still all to play for for everyone else.

Week 11 saw a monster score from Washington. Hmmm, its thanksgiving too. Now America, you’ve been a bit disappointing over the last few weeks – maybe  look at where you are going and stop treading on the wee guys eh?

Bohemians at Pirates

5-6 Earlstonian Bohemians challenge the 6-5 Tweedbank Pirates at Gun Knowe Stadium.

Earlstonian Bohemians were led in week 11 by a 26.10 point effort from Le’Veon Bell,

Tweedbank Pirates were led in week 11 by a 20.00 point effort from the Minnesota Vikings.

In week 2, Tweedbank Pirates defeated Earlstonian Bohemians by 0.44 points, so coach Ally is looking for revenge this week. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, Earlstonian Bohemians hold a 4-5-0 all-time series record against Tweedbank Pirates.

Ally must surely have forgiven Russell Wilson for his less than 10 pt outing a month ago, 3 25 pt game sin a row have to get a QB back in the good books? Added to that Leveon Bell is coming off two monster games and looks in great form, particularly with Ben Roethlisberger back from injury meaning defenses have to think about the pass too. Really you’ve got to think that very little on the Bohos team will change, apart from as ever streaming a DST for the week. All the offensive players are ranked in the top 15 and that’s going to be a lot for anyone to challenge this week.

Paul has come down pretty hard after a great start to the season, and meets Ally perhaps on the way up. Only one of these teams can go through to the playoffs for sure- but there is a chance for both to make it through wildcard. Todd Gurley and Rashad Jennings look solid at RB1 and 2 but will possibly come up 50 yards shorter than the Bohos pairing – so need some Tds as well, not impossible. Its the same story at WR but they are petty evenly matched to the Bohos pair – expect a good 150 yds between them. Flex could be the let down here, there’s really nothing on the squad to compete with one of Ally’s top Rbs, and there will need to be more than a little luck to get 10 pts here. The Vikings could be the ace in the hole though – cooing off a 20 pt game and being the 4th highest scorer on the Pirates roster

All in all, it looks like Ally has the advantage at most positions, but the Vikings and a lucky break at WR could seal the deal for Paul’s Pirates.

The rest of the league must surely now want a Pirates win to open up the other wildcard slot – A win for Ally could put both teams through.

Panthers at Tigers

5-6 Pilton Panthers play the 4-7 Tranent Tigers at Polson Park.

Pilton Panthers were led in week 11 by a 27.40 point effort from Kirk Cousins. In addition, LeSean McCoy was not injured before the start of his week 11 game, and contributed 10.50 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 12 due to an injured thumb , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Pilton Panthers can expect a 16.70 point effort from Kirk Cousins in week 12.

Tranent Tigers were led in week 11 by a 28.40 point effort from Tom Brady. In addition, Ryan Mathews was not injured before the start of his week 11 game, and contributed 3.10 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 12 due to an injured knee , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

In week 2, Tranent Tigers defeated Pilton Panthers by 7.42 points, so coach Rab is looking for revenge this week. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Pilton Panthers hold a 4-1-0 all-time series record against Tranent Tigers.

Panthers are fresh off a divisional win and are maybe smelling blood or the light at the end of the divisional tunnel. However, it was no in any way a league winning score last week and things will have to tighten up if the Panthers are to take the division. Things look a wee bit shoogly for Rab’s Panthers, barring Jordy Nelson there are no players ranked in the top 10 this week, rankings mean nothing if you get the matchups though. LeSean McCoy and Tevin Coleman, though not looking stellar this week are both higher ranked than anything Nicky can offer – they are perhaps looking at 150-200 yds between them but if they can capitalise with a couple of Tds that would be a huge advantage for Rab.

Nicky has just had a bit of bad luck – though the signs were there for Antonio Brown and Big Ben last weekend – both of them really underperformed and that could mean the end of the season for the Tigers. This week Brown and Brady are ranked #1 again – and surely Antonio Brown will want some of those TD passes. Rishard Matthews at Flex could be a good option this week with a reasonable match up against the Bears – tough choice to put him in over Devante Adams though – one of them should score for sure. Gostkowski and the choice of 2 DSTs round things out nicely for Nicky – and should be good for maybe 12-15 between them – perhaps expect a DST to go in the waivers in the morning, if Nicky can still afford to pick anyone up.

This game could decide Shatner – or leave it wide open again – the rest of the league perhaps wanting a Panthers win to leave Pickaxe and Tigers in the dust – but certainly Gav and Nicky need a Tigers win badly.

Fire at 187s

4-7 Fife Fire play the 7-4 Kelso 187’s at Compton Palace.

Fife Fire were led in week 11 by a 16.40 point effort from Drew Brees. In addition, Theo Riddick was not injured before the start of his week 11 game, and contributed 8.30 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 12 due to an injured ankle , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

Kelso 187’s were led in week 11 by a 25.64 point effort from Dak Prescott.

In week 2, Kelso 187’s defeated Fife Fire by 20.00 points, so coach Shaun is looking for revenge this week. In the 2-year history of this rivalry, Fife Fire hold a 2-1-0 all-time series record against Kelso 187’s.

Its the brotherly no love lost bowl again – 20 pts is a bit of a stinger for Shaun, but then the season hasn’t really panned out as well as expected – there’s a couple of interesting waiver picks around this week and Shaun has the cash to guarantee one of them at least – and he’d still have $40 for next week. That money is going to be be burning a hole in the Fire pockets at the end of the season though – really there’s nothing in the lineup or the waivers that looks a dead cert to take on the brother. Riddick, West, Marshall and Hopkins can perhaps expect 250 yds between them plus maybe a TD – any more than that is looking sketchy and will need a bit of luck. Fire have maybe traded away just at the wrong times this year – Aaron Rogers is outscoring Brees over the season for a start. Its looking a bit of a smouldering wreckage for the Fire at the end of this season.

187s couldn’t get across the line last week – but have another chance to seal the deal in week 12. Dak Prescott is probing himself quite a star – and consistently performing above his already quite high rank – it seems no ‘real pundit’s will believe that a rookie can end the season top 5. Gordon an Beckham have proved their worth over and again this season for Euan’s 187s and that should continue in week 12. Kelvin Benjamin has perhaps taken a wee bit of a tumble after his great season start – but there must be some more TDs in there somewhere. The rest of the squad leaves some choices at RB2, WR and Flex, but you’ve got to suspect that Michael Crabtree is in the mix as well. There’s 40 pts in yards from any number of RBs and WRs here – it will be a case of who is more likely to score those TDs that determines the lineup, and there will be a big bench score for sure.

The rest of the league has to be hoping for the 187s to seal the deal – again leaving a wildcard space open for anyone else, that looks likely this week for sure – the 187s just look too strong for the Fire.

Fog at Avengers

6-5 Fog on the Tyne face off against the 6-5 Kelsae Avengers at Samuel Sawyer Memorial Park.

Fog on the Tyne were led in week 11 by a 21.60 point effort from Derek Carr. Fog on the Tyne can expect a 20.84 point effort from Derek Carr in week 12.

Kelsae Avengers were led in week 11 by a 28.00 point effort from David Johnson. In addition, Thomas Rawls was not injured before the start of his week 11 game, and contributed 8.80 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 12 due to an injured undisclosed , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

In week 2, Fog on the Tyne defeated Kelsae Avengers by 12.94 points, so coach Stuart is looking for revenge this week. In the 2-year history of this rivalry, Fog on the Tyne hold a 3-0-0 all-time series record against Kelsae Avengers.

Its Stu vs Stu again for the wildcard spot in Fog are riding their luck a little in Uhura – Avengers are outscoring them most of the season, just not in the games that matter leaving Fog in front by a nose. The sad news for both these teams is that only one of them can go through – and even then only as a wildcard as Jimmy has it all sewn up. Avengers have to win both this and the last game against Jimmy to stand a chance, where Stuart can get through with one win out of the 2.

fog have been very inconsistent over the season, but have made their wins count. This last stretch could be a bit too far though, there’s only so much that Gronk can do, he’s not the talisman he’s been over the last 3 seasons. Derek Carr Looks serviceable this week – but he’s not really performing better than you might expect from a streaming QB, sop there could be a change there – certainly Stuart can afford a wee bid in the waivers.

Avengers have also just been too up and down all season. David Johnson is interesting as the only player in the whole league to be averaging more than the teams QB over the season, and still yet to post anything below 10 – proving his 1st round status and likely cementing it for 2017 too. Jimmy Graham is in the mix too, the rest of the league collectively trying to forget the giggles that greeted his pick in the later rounds of the draft. Whilst they cant be cocky, Avengers have the advantage pretty much everywhere except flex kicker and DST – and event them they are not far behind.

The rest of the league really want neither of them to win – but surely Stuart is the best hope – facing as he does Jimmy next week.

Jaguars at Pickaxe

11-0 Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars, who hope to extend their 11 game winning streak, challenge the 4-7 Nitten Pickaxe at New Victoria Park.

Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars were led in week 11 by a 29.34 point effort from Aaron Rodgers. In addition, A.J. Green was not injured before the start of his week 11 game, and contributed 0.00 points, but he’s listed as out in week 12 due to an injured hamstring , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

Nitten Pickaxe were led in week 11 by a 20.00 point effort from Dez Bryant.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2016, and is sure to be a epic battle. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars hold a 3-2-0 all-time series record against Nitten Pickaxe.

Jimmy rolled on to yet another victory in week 11, but it has cost him a starting WR in AJ Green. To be fair Green wasn’t contributing a huge amount of the Jags points in any case – and there are waiver picks that might replace him – Jimmy will have to wait till after 9.00 though – as there’s no money left in the biscuit tin. Aaron Rogers was a great trade at a great time for Jimmy, he’s outscored Carson Wentz, who he replaced, by more than 10 pts a game. Miller Gore Howard and Martin are surely all in the mix for a starting spot this week – $86 is a lot of fantasy dough to spend on a benchwarmer but that could well be the case this week as the others have pretty good matchups.

Gav is cursing his luck this season – week 11 went past with a perfect chance to prove the Pickaxe formula – only to get beaten by a well below standard 80 pts. The silver lining is the Cowboys in the squad, Dez Bryant and Zeke Elliot seem to gel well with Dak Prescott and they are sure to keep their spots this week. Jeremy hills run of TDs came to an abrupt end last week – but with a season ending injury to Giovani Bernard there could be more touches for him – is he fit enough to handle that pace is a big question, Pickaxe are pretty much forced to try their luck with him. Brandin cooks and Greg Olsen can surely only get better from last weeks Thursday night effort.

All in all this is a must win for Gav, but the rest of the league are still hoping for Jimmy’s run to continue – we have to ask if their priorities are right here – we cannot have an unbeaten season yet – what’s left to play for next year? We’ll expect big cheers for Pickaxe come Sunday evening.

Earthquakes at 69ers

2-9 Earlston Earthquakes challenge the 6-5 SanFran-Gordon 69ers at Castle Greyskull.

Earlston Earthquakes were led in week 11 by a 31.70 point effort from Rob Kelley. In addition, C.J. Prosisewas not injured before the start of his week 11 game, and contributed 14.10 points, but he’s listed as out in week 12 due to an injured shoulder , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

SanFran-Gordon 69ers were led in week 11 by a 22.00 point effort from the Steelers In addition, Andrew Luck was not injured before the start of his week 11 game, and contributed 18.68 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 12 due to an injured concussion , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2016, and is sure to be a classic showdown. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Earlston Earthquakes hold a 2-1-0 all-time series record against SanFran-Gordon 69ers.

Oh dear Earthquakes, Its finally coming together, but just too late, Rob Kelly had some effort last week and that might push him forward for more yards – but he’s ranked just 15th in RBs this week – giving him more like 80yds and a possible 1 TD. Those rankings mean not a lot in the heat of the game though – so there’s no reason at all it couldn’t be more. Amari Copper and the Pts DST are the other highlights this week for Cozy. The rest of the skill players should make up around 300 yds and have a reasonable chance of a couple of TDs between them all. Kaep at QB is maybe not the best available choice this week, and there’s money in the pot for the Quakes to perhaps get a last chance QB to ruin a couple of folks seasons.

69ers are close – a win here should get them at least a wildcard spot – and there’s still a chance of the division. Demarco Murray and Julio Jones are the stars here, and show no real signs of slowing down – they are perhaps not the highest averaging pair across the league but they have been consistent – though Julio has had 2 less than 5 pt performances too – so chickens should not be counted just yet. Doug Baldwin could end up being a great late season pickup for Richie and last weeks effort certainly helped the niners cause. He’ll likely start again and put a good 100 yds on the board give or take a TD.

A win for the Quakes would please everyone except Richie – but the stats say no. However that has been the case all season and its not really panned out that way for the niners – so anything could happen here