Road to the Playoffs

Calculation Info

All 64 remaining scenarios were analyzed. No possibility of tied games was considered.

The maximum points any team could gain or lose used in tiebreaker calculations was 90.

No scenario in which a team with less than 7 wins got a wildcard spot was detected.

In all scenarios analyzed 8 wins was guaranteed a wildcard spot.

Team Synopsis

Earlstonian Bohemians (4-8-0). ELIMINATED from playoff contention.
Kelsae Avengers (6-6-0). ELIMINATED from division race. Wildcard odds: Clinch 25%. Tie 0%.
Kelso 187’s (7-5-0)… CLINCHED a DIVISION spot!
Tranent Tigers (8-4-0). CLINCHED a PLAYOFF spot! Division odds: Clinch 50%. Tie 0%. Wildcard odds: Clinch 50%. Tie 0%.
Tweedbank Pirates (8-4-0). CLINCHED a PLAYOFF spot! Division odds: Clinch 75%. Tie 0%. Wildcard odds: Clinch 25%. Tie 0%.
Pilton Panthers (4-8-0). ELIMINATED from playoff contention.
Earlston Earthquakes (7-5-0). Division odds: Clinch 25%. Tie 0%. Wildcard odds: Clinch 50%. Tie 0%.
Nitten Pickaxe (8-4-0). CLINCHED a PLAYOFF spot! Division odds: Clinch 50%. Tie 0%. Wildcard odds: Clinch 50%. Tie 0%.
Kelso Kestrels (5-7-0). ELIMINATED from playoff contention.
SanFran-Gordon 69ers (5-7-0). ELIMINATED from playoff contention.
Fog on the Tyne (8-4-0). CLINCHED a DIVISION spot!
Jerman Jaguars (2-10-0). ELIMINATED from playoff contention.

Upcoming round’s DIVISION analysis

Tranent Tigers CLINCH a Division spot with:
A WIN

Tweedbank Pirates CLINCH a Division spot with:
Earlston Earthquakes LOSS ; OR
A WIN

Earlston Earthquakes CLINCH a Division spot with:
A WIN -AND- Tweedbank Pirates LOSS

Nitten Pickaxe CLINCH a Division spot with:
A WIN

Upcoming round’s PLAYOFF analysis

Kelsae Avengers CLINCH a Playoff spot with:
A WIN -AND- Earlston Earthquakes LOSS

Earlston Earthquakes CLINCH a Playoff spot with:
A WIN; OR
Kelsae Avengers LOSS

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Road to the Playoffs

Team Synopsis

Earlstonian Bohemians (4-7-0)…. ELIMINATED from playoff contention.
Kelsae Avengers (6-5-0)…. Division odds: Clinch 25%. Tie 12%. Wildcard odds: Clinch 19%. Tie 31%.
Kelso 187’s (6-5-0)…. Division odds: Clinch 62%. Tie 0%. Wildcard odds: Clinch 0.8%. Tie 11%.
Tranent Tigers (7-4-0)…. Division odds: Clinch 37%. Tie 12%. Wildcard odds: Clinch 46%. Tie 15%.
Tweedbank Pirates(8-3-0)….. Division odds: Clinch 87%. Tie 0%. Wildcard odds: Clinch 12%. Tie 0.4%.
Pilton Panthers (4-7-0)…. ELIMINATED from division race. Wildcard odds: Clinch 0%. Tie 1%.
Earlston Earthquakes (6-5-0)…. Division odds: Clinch 12%. Tie 0%. Wildcard odds: Clinch 23%. Tie 43%.
Nitten Pickaxe (7-4-0)…. Division odds: Clinch 50%. Tie 12%. Wildcard odds: Clinch 30%. Tie 17%.
Kelso Kestrels (5-6-0)…. Division odds: Clinch 37%. Tie 0%. Wildcard odds: Clinch 0%. Tie 2%.
SanFran-Gordon 69ers (4-7-0)…. ELIMINATED from division race. Wildcard odds: Clinch 0%. Tie 1%.
Fog on the Tyne(7-4-0)…. Division odds: Clinch 62%. Tie 12%. Wildcard odds: Clinch 17%. Tie 17%.
Jerman Jaguars (2-9-0)…. ELIMINATED from playoff contention.

Upcoming round’s DIVISION analysis

Kelso 187’sCLINCH a Division spot with:
A WIN

Tweedbank Pirates CLINCH a Division spot with:
A WIN

Nitten Pickaxe clinch at least a tie for a Division spot (points tiebreaker to resolve) with:
A WIN -AND- Tranent Tigers LOSS
Could fight for points tiebreaker with: Tranent Tigers

Fog on the Tyne CLINCH a Division spot with:
A WIN -AND- Kelsae Avengers LOSS

Fog on the Tyne clinch at least a tie for a Division spot (points tiebreaker to resolve) with:
A WIN
Could fight for points tiebreaker with: Kelsae Avengers

Upcoming round’s PLAYOFF analysis

Kelsae Avengers clinch at least a tie for a Playoff spot (points tiebreaker to resolve) with:
A WIN -AND- Earlston Earthquakes LOSS ; OR
A WIN -AND- Tranent Tigers LOSS
Could fight for points tiebreaker with: Kelso 187’s, Tranent Tigers, Tweedbank Pirates, Earlston Earthquakes, Nitten Pickaxe, Kelso Kestrels, Fog on the Tyne, SanFranGordon 69ers, Pilton Panthers

Kelso 187’s CLINCH a Playoff spot with:
A WIN

Tranent Tigers CLINCH a Playoff spot with:
A WIN -AND- Earlston Earthquakes LOSS ; OR
A WIN -AND- Kelsae Avengers LOSS ; OR
A WIN -AND- Fog on the Tyne LOSS

Tranent Tigers clinch at least a tie for a Playoff spot (points tiebreaker to resolve) with:
Earlston Earthquakes LOSS ; OR
Kelsae Avengers LOSS ; OR
A WIN; OR
Fog on the Tyne LOSS
Could fight for points tiebreaker with: Kelsae Avengers, Kelso 187’s, Tweedbank Pirates, Earlston Earthquakes, Fog on the Tyne

Tweedbank Pirates CLINCH a Playoff spot with:
A WIN; OR
Kelsae Avengers LOSS ; OR
Tranent Tigers LOSS ; OR
Fog on the Tyne LOSS ; OR
Wins points tiebreaker at end of season. Could fight for points with: Kelsae Avengers, Tranent Tigers, Fog on the Tyne

Earlston Earthquakes clinch at least a tie for a Playoff spot (points tiebreaker to resolve) with:
A WIN -AND- Kelsae Avengers LOSS ; OR
A WIN -AND- Tranent Tigers LOSS ; OR
A WIN -AND- Fog on the Tyne LOSS
Could fight for points tiebreaker with: Kelsae Avengers, Kelso 187’s, Tranent Tigers, Nitten Pickaxe, Kelso Kestrels, Fog on the Tyne, SanFranGordon 69ers, Pilton Panthers

Nitten Pickaxe CLINCH a Playoff spot with:
A WIN

Nitten Pickaxe clinch at least a tie for a Playoff spot (points tiebreaker to resolve) with:
Earlston Earthquakes LOSS ; OR
Fog on the Tyne LOSS
Could fight for points tiebreaker with: Kelsae Avengers, Kelso 187’s, Earlston Earthquakes, Fog on the Tyne

Fog on the Tyne CLINCH a Playoff spot with:
A WIN -AND- Earlston Earthquakes LOSS ; OR
A WIN -AND- Kelsae Avengers LOSS ; OR
A WIN -AND- Tranent Tigers LOSS

Fog on the Tyne clinch at least a tie for a Playoff spot (points tiebreaker to resolve) with:
Earlston Earthquakes LOSS ; OR
A WIN; OR
Nitten Pickaxe LOSS -AND- Tranent Tigers LOSS
Could fight for points tiebreaker with: Kelsae Avengers, Kelso 187’s, Tranent Tigers, Tweedbank Pirates, Earlston Earthquakes, Nitten Pickaxe

View from the Pit – Week 7

Week 7 Schedule (Fantasy Sharks favourites in bold)

Tranent Tigers (4-2) – (3-3) Earlstonian Bohemians

Bohemians are the early and narrow favourites (-0.81) over the Tigers where they also hold a 3-0 all-time record. Even on paper, this looks like a close game!

The Bohemians and Tigers are evenly matched at QB No 1 and 3 respectively and also at WR where the Tigers are 3rd and the Bohemians 5th. A slip up by either AJ Green or Antonio Brown could be costly to each outfit and with the Bengals travelling to Pittsburgh a nice little intrigue game for Nicky and me to watch on Sunday evening.

The matchup will most likely hinge on both teams anaemic running games (ranked 11th and 12th). The Bohemians group face the 2nd, 3rd and 4th worst RB defences this week whereas the Tigers schedule is less kindly…this looks like the key to victory for the Bohemians.

SanFran-Gordon 69ers (1-5) – (1-5) Pilton Panthers

An almost battle of the basement as the 69ers and Panthers vie for the 2nd and 3rd spots in next years rookie draft. The 69ers suffered a gut punch last week when they lost Aaron Rodgers, but enter this game as early 8 point favourites.

Carson Palmer seems the most likely to take over for Rodgers, but the key to this game will be the RB matchup. The Panthers currently rank 5th in the league at that position whereas the 69ers rank a lowly 10th. If the Panthers can strengthen their QB and TE output then they could be on the way to a turnaround victory.

69ers are 6-1 all-time against the Panthers

Nitten Pickaxe (5-1) – (4-2) Kelso 187s

The Pickaxes unbeaten run finally came to an end last week, and to make matters worse they face a 187s squad who is an early 3 point favourite. The Pickaxe currently lead the league in TE production and their WRs are 2nd, but with Hopkins and Jones on byes the 187s may have found a good week to take advantage. The key to this game will be the new 187s RB pairing of Chris Thompson and Adrian Peterson. If Peterson can roll back the years, then the 187s should enough of an advantage at QB, WR and PK and DT to take the victory.

The 187s are 3-0 all-time against the Pickaxe

Kelso Kestrels (3-3) – (0-6) Jerman Jaguars

It’s predicted as the lowest scoring game of the week with both the Kestrels and Jaguars expected to produce under 95 points each. That would be a surprise for the Jaguars considering they’ve faced the most points this season…but perhaps this is an opportunity to grab that face-saving win?

There are a number of QBs on this weeks waiver wire who will be startable for the Jaguars, including Carson Palmer, and with waiver sensation Deshaun Watson missing the Kestrels may have to rely on the disappointing Jameis Winston.

They key to this game will be the improving Kestrel RBs and their management of their 10th ranked WR and TEs group against the Jaguars 6th ranked WR and RB groups. Matchups will be key with each teams RBs facing tough opponents and the Jaguars star WR missing his QB.

Tweedbank Pirates (4-2) – (4-2)Kelsae Avengers

The matchup of the week featuring the leagues top 2 scoring outfits. Both teams will be keen to see a victory in this matchup with the Pirates fending off an ascending Earthquakes and the Avengers chasing an impressive Fog. The Pirates are early 13 point favourites.

The Avengers boasts the most impressive RB grouping in the league, but the No3 ranked Pirates are not far behind with a more balanced outfit overall. The key to this game will lie not in the Kareem Hunt vs Todd Gurley clash, but rather the Doug Baldwin/Alshon Jeffrey vs Larry Fitzgerald/Pierre Garcon clash. Each stable faces tough matchups, but the 49ers-Cowboys clash could be the decider.

The teams are 1-1 all-time against each other

Earlston Earthquakes (3-3) – (4-2) Fog on the Tyne

Another close matchup in this weeks schedule sees the Earthquakes take on the Fog as early 1 point favourites. Fog on the Tyne has been one of the most consistent teams in the league boasting above 100 point performances every week. The Earthquakes have been less consistent, with 2 worst week performances as well as last weeks record-setting 171.6.

The key to this clash will be the Fogs 4th ranked WRs against the Earthquakes 12th ranked. If the Earthquakes can find 25 points from a combination of Adam Humphries, Devonte Parker, Tyrell Williams, Jeremy Maclin and Emmanuel Sanders then their No2 RB outfit should do enough to run them to victory.

Fog on the Tyne hold a 4-2 all-time series record.

What difference will a new Offensive Coordinator make to Cincinnati?

After a 0-2 home start and an offense that mustered just 3 field goals, the Cincinnati Bengals moved swiftly on from long t-rm coordinator Ken Zampese.

His replacement, Bill Lazor, will head up the offense for the week 3 visit to Green Bay. While we don’t expect to see immediate benefits the change in philosophy should see some longer-term changes to fantasy output and touches.

Zampese, a Coryell/Man blocking disciple will make way for Lazor’s West-Coast Zone blocking scheme. A profile of touches for the Zampese offense for each opponent is shown below.

Zampese(1)

The main focus of the Zampese offense was the setup of the passing game using the run. The lead back profiled to see in the region of 240 rushing attempts and 50 targets with the secondary back seeing 120 attempts and 50 targets.  The main receiving target was the WR1 seeing 126 targets with the WR2, WR3 and TE seeing 100, 70 and 88 targets respectively.

The addition of Lazor should result in a change in workload for both the backfield and the main receiver. In comparison to Zampese, at a basic level, Lazor runs less and passes more. However, the workload for the RB1 should stay relatively stable (234 carries/ 49 targets), its the RB2 who’ll lose out (102 carries/36 targets). Given that Lazor’s two previous stops have seen him use LeSean McCoy and Lamar Miller as RB1’s the likelihood of Jeremy Hill seeing the same workload is probably very slim. Expect to see the usage of Joe Mixon increase or if he’s not ready in the short term then Giovanni Bernard will absorb most of the passing work.

The biggest beneficiary of Lazor’s ascension will be AJ Green with his target workload expected to increase to 142. The WR2/3 and TE targets should stay relatively stable. A profile of touches for the Lazor offense for each opponent is shown below.

Lazor(1)

Josh McDaniels Vs Bob Sutton – Matt Nagy Vs Matt Patricia

Expected Touches and Targets (Kansas City  Offense Vs New England Defense)

position touches targets carries actual touches actual targets actual carries
RB1 16.2 2.6 13.6 22 5 17
RB2 9.8 3 6.8 2 1 1
RB3 6.3 1.8 4.5 0  0 0
TE1 5.9 5.9 0 8 7 1
TE2 3 3 0 2 2 0
WR1 9 8.6 0.4 10 8 2
WR2 6.6 5.9 0.6 5 5 0
WR3 5 5 0.1 4 4 0
WR4 3.5 3.4 0.1 2 1 1

Expected Touches and Targets (New England Offense vs Kansas City Defense)

touches targets carries actual touches actual targets actual carries
16.2 2.7 13.5 15 0 15
9.6 2.9 6.7 15 5 10
8 2.4 5.5 6 3 3
6.2 1.7 4.5 2 0 2
6 6 0 6 6 0
3.7 3.7 0 0 0 0
9.3 8.8 0.5 7 7 0
6.1 6 0.1 7 7 0
4.7 4.6 0.2 8 5 3
3.8 3.8 0 0 0 0

 

EFFL AGM 2017 – Reid Hoose on SuperBowl Night

Current items for the AGM

  1. Change Waivers from Wednesday 0915 to 1915.
  2. Kickers will be awarded 0.1 points for each yard of a successful field goal try. A Field Goal and Extra Point miss will NOT be penalised.  
  3. Proposal for Points Per Reception scoring change. 
  4. Add Individual Defensive Player positions to the starting line-ups. 

 

COMMISSIONER NOTIFICATIONS

  1. We will continue with current league fees unless prices rise at MFL or there is a league requirement to increase the prize pot.
  2. Scoring- Apart from the proposals above in the interests of consistency I propose to retain the current scoring system.
  3. Is league happy to continue with the divisional setup?
  4. As a new team was added to the league Dynasty and Keeper proposals will be shelved until 2017-2018
  5. Commissioner will reduce 2-day player pick-up lock to 1-day
  6. Commission will add a weekly waivers limit: 6 transactions.
  7. Weekly locks for players dropped at waivers WILL remain.
  8. I’ll be adding an Injured Reserve spot to each roster. Rules for IR:-
    1. During the NFL season, a team may place a player on IR if they appear on their NFL teams Injured Reserve List. The owner may then utilise the blind bid waiver wire process to replace the player on their active roster.
    2.  IR moves are free
    3. No free agent who is listed as out and then drafted or acquired via the waiver wire is eligible for the IR wire (i.e. a player on IR or out can’t be picked up and stashed on your IR…only active players on your roster are eligible)
    4. A team may only have a maximum 1 players on the IR list at any time.
    5. The official site for determining a player’s status will be NFL.com
    6. A player on the IR list may not be traded to another team
  9. Weekly preview and review articles. MFL auto generates these but they’re a “bit” shit. I particularly enjoy the View from the Pit, but Gavé shouldered every single week on his own last year, does anyone want to help out? There is no format you just write what you want to read.
  10. League chat- The MFL chat is ok, but wasn’t well used. Is everyone still happy to continue with FB or would you like to switch to something else?
  11. I propose that our 2 co-commissioners continue in their post and function as the executive committee.
  12. Draft Day- It looks very likely that draft night will be on Saturday 9th September 2016. We won’t know for sure until the NFL schedule is published in June so please keep the 9th Sept and 26th Aug noted in your diaries. We don’t have a venue for next years draft so if anyone would like to volunteer it would be appreciated (It’s now a necessity that you provide a wifi connection >17Mb, a big screen telly with an hdmi connection and a room capable of holding 12).

Earlston Super Bowl IV

Panthers Win! Panthers Win!jordy_superbowliv

The week began with some early waiver wire activity by the 69ers as they frantically searched for a startable TE with the No.8 overall, Jordan Reed sidelined by injury. Indeed he would have been a valuable asset for the 69ers with the Panthers heavy reliance on Washington Redskins. In the end, Coach Richie settled for veteran Antonio Gates and his match-up against the worst team at defending fantasy TEs (the Cleveland Browns). The rest of the 69ers starting lineup continued with just WR Tyreek Hill making way for the returning Julio Jones.

As for most of the year, the Panthers stuck with a winning line-up and restarted all of last week’s semi-finalists. In the main, that was a line-up that matched expert rankings with only the decision to go with Cousins over Rivers courting any controversy.

The Panthers had never beaten the 69ers on any of their six previous attempts and the final didn’t start well with TE Zach Ertz posting a disappointing 3.3 on Thursday night. That was the last time Coach Richie enjoyed a final score from a Panther starter.

The early Christmas eve games would be where the final would be won and lost with seven starters going for the Panthers against the 69ers five. It was the Panthers who built an early lead posting 122.8. It most have been galling for the 69ers to watch the No.4 QB, the No. 8 and No. 9 RB, and the No.2 WR scores for the week go against them with only Antonio Gates posting a top 20 positional score. In fact the Panthers score as so dominant even a perfect lineup including Charles Clay and Tyreek Hill wouldn’t have made any difference.

Things did improve for the 69ers late with Andrew Luck and Doug Baldwin clawing back most of the early damage, but unfortunately it just wasn’t enough. A further 10 points for the Chiefs DST finally sealed the victory and Coach Rab’s first championship.

SanFran-Gordon 69ers

104.02-132.8

Pilton Panthers

SanFran-Gordon 69ers Pilton Panthers
QB Andrew Luck 24.72 QB Kirk Cousins 29.8
RB Carlos Hyde 11.2 RB LeSean McCoy 20.5
RB DeMarco Murray 6.0 RB Tevin Coleman 19.5
WR Doug Baldwin 23.7 WR Jordy Nelson 27.4
WR Julio Jones 6.0 WR DeSean Jackson 11.4
F-WR Ty Montgomery 4.0 F-WR Jarvis Landry 2.9
TE Antonio Gates 15.4 TE Zach Ertz 3.3
K Adam Vinatieri 5.0 K Mason Crosby 8.0
DST Green Bay Packers 8.0 DST Kansas City Chiefs 10.0

EFFL Semi Finals

A revolution is a struggle to the death between the future and the past.

Perhaps it wasn’t a revolution, but it was certainly a shake-up of the established order. The Semi-Finals saw the last remaining team of the “old guard” despatched and 2 playoff newcomers advance to EFFL Superbowl IV. Both victors posted dominant performances in two closely fought and exciting match-ups. The losing teams will curse their luck, but the two most inconsistent teams in the league finally got their mojo on at just the right point of the season.

SanFran-Gordon 69ers 104.20 @ 87.98 Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars

It was a game that was highlighted more by its absent stars than its star-studded lineups. Both teams were missing their star receivers (Julio Jones and AJ Green respectively) and some frantic (and late) waivers claims punctuated the week.

San-Fran were first on the board on Thursday Night with Doug Baldwin and Steven Hauschka posting a reasonable 15.5 points during Seattle’s pummeling of the LA Rams. However, the game would be decided on Sunday night with 6 69ers and 9 Jaguars playing.

Things started with a bang for the 69ers as Tyreek “the freak” Hill took his only touch of the game 68 yards for a TD on a play that summed up both coaches night. Murray, Luck and Montgomery added 61.2 points in contrast to the Jaguars 6 starters posting 54 points and critically Tyler Eifert’s crushing 0.9 to finish the early evening games. The Jaguars faced a daunting 36 point deficit and their first ever playoff exit.

Drastic action was taken at Jaguars HQ with Janikowski and JJ Nelson added to help boost a pedestrian start. Unfortunately, it just wasn’t enough with the four remaining Jaguars adding just 34 points and despairingly a 56 yard TD drop by Nelson. Carlos Hyde, the Falcons DST and Jordan Reed added 14.7 to pile on the misery for the 2 time champion Jaguars and their first ever season missing the EFFL Superbowl.

The 69ers advance to the EFFL Superbowl for the first time in their history and are the bookies early (and heavy) favourite.

Pilton Panthers 114.5 @ 112.36 Kelso 187’s

It was easily the highest scoring games of the weekend and served noticed that the 4 best teams in the EFFL had made the Semi-Final. It was an (almost) all Sunday affair with 14 of the 18 starters for both teams featuring.

On Saturday evening the 187s Bilal Powell and Panthers Jarvis Landry faced off with both players scoring considerably better than expected, but with a slight advantage going to the Panthers WR (+0.6).

The early Sunday games did little to separate the teams with 4 direct matchups at RB1, WR1, TE and DST. The Panthers McCoy and Chiefs edged Mathews and Texans (+8.6) whereas the 187s Beckham and Rudolph edged Nelson and Ertz (+2.6). Mason Crosby added a healthy 12 points for the Panthers with the 187 pair of Tyrod Taylor and Dwayne Washington added just 19.86. The biggest question on everyone’s mind was whether Coach Euski’s decision to bench Dak Prescott would come back to haunt him.

The evening games went slightly better for the 187s as they began to build a lead. Crabtree and Bryant added 25 points to take their total to 112.36. With every point crucial Prescott’s 19.16 on the 187’s bench was to be their eventual downfall as Cousins and Jackson added 21.8 points to take the game at the last gasp.

This was the 5th straight victory for the rampant Panthers despite being underdogs in 4 of those games. They now face another first-time finalist in the 69ers, a team they have never beaten in 6 previous attempts.

 

EFFL Wildcard Weekend

The wildcard weekend certainly lived up to its name despite the dearth of fantasy scoring around the NFL this weekend (unless you were a LeVeon Bell owner). The margins for error were small and every lineup choice was crucial. In a weird twist of fate both of our wildcard teams were heavy favourites against our third and fourth seed division winners, but as Burns said “The best-laid schemes o’ mice an’ men, Gang aft agley”

SanFran-Gordon 69ers 76.54 @ 75.12 Tweedbank Pirates
The SanFran-Gordon 69ers entered their matchup with Tweedbank Pirates as early 8 point favourites, but the loss of star receiver Julio Jones changed everything leaving the Pirates as slight favourites with the emergency addition of Breshard Perriman. Perriman was described as “having no value to teams in the fantasy playoffs”, but of course value is in the eye of the beholder!
The 69ers decided to roll with a 2 RB/3WR split with surprise starts for Jordan Reed, Terrelle Pryor and the Lions DST over Tyreek Hill, Antonio Gates and the Steelers who all had superior matchups. Both 69ers RBs (Murray and Hyde) and their QB (Luck) faced tough matchups with Vinatieri and Baldwin rounding out the starters.
The Pirates had the benefit of a settled lineup with flex the only one up for grabs. In the end, the upside of Dion Lewis won out over Justin Forsett although Cobb and Coleman were also contenders. Stafford started at QB with Gurley and Jennings leading at RB. The WRs picked themselves with Hilton balancing Luck’s 69er output and future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald. Kelce, Santos and the Vikings rounded out the rest of the starters.

Pirates were on the board first with Kelce making a healthy 10.10, but Santos could only muster a disappointing 3 on Thursday Night Football.

The early Sunday games helped maintain the Pirates lead with Hilton offsetting Luck, but Fitzgeralds brutal 1.2 in a monsoon in Miami would have caused concern if it hadn’t been balanced by the 69ers Pryor anonymous 0.3 outing. Further pain was lessened with Reed managing a paltry 1.0. Stafford produced a decent outing for the Pirates at 16.42. The defences also squared off in the early games with the Pirates again having the edge +3, but this was balanced by Vinatieri’s advantage over Santos (+2). With some tough matchups to come for the 69ers things looked good for the Pirates.
However, the late and night games on Sunday finally got the 69ers back into the tie with Carlos Hyde and DeMarco Murray producing the goods with a 21.2 position swing. The tie rested on the Monday Night matchup between the Ravens and Patriots although the Pirates could have confidence from a 2 point cushion and an expected heavy workload for Lewis.
Of course, “Belichick hates your fantasy team” and unfortunately for the Pirates, the Patriots changed their normal game plan against a tough run D and spent most of the evening pounding with Blount rather than using their more dynamic RB. Lewis saw minimal touches and produced a paltry 1.9. That was enough for Perriman to break open the game with a 47-yard sideline catch to win the game for the 69ers (76.54-75.12) and set up a grudge match with 2-time champion Jaguars.

Kelsae Avengers 57.3 @ 92.76 Pilton Panthers

It’s a game in which every GM not in the playoffs felt Stuart’s pain and everyone still in the playoffs breathed a sigh of relief as the high-flying Avengers crashed out.

The Avengers were early and heavy favourites in this game with a 16 point advantage. Analysis backed this view with the Avengers scoring more than 100 points in 10 of their 13 regular season games and averaging a dizzying 115 points over the last 5 weeks of the season. In contrast, the Panthers had broken 100 points only twice during the season and averaged just 89 points over the final 5 weeks of the season.

But when it goes wrong in fantasy it goes wrong spectacularly. Both teams put out their best line-ups although the one question mark with the Avengers was their heavy reliance on Seahawks in evening matchup against the Panthers best player Jordy Nelson (Packers).

Both teams put out their best line-ups although the one question mark with the Avengers was their heavy reliance on Seahawks in an evening matchup against the Panthers best player Jordy Nelson (Packers).

The game got underway well for the Avengers with Latavius Murray posting an excellent 16.3 points on Thursday Night, but an ominous 11 point game from the Chiefs DST kept the Panthers in touch…however, things went downhill quickly from there.

The early Sunday games started badly for the Avengers and they found themselves facing a very large deficit as Cousins, Jackson and McCoy all posted big numbers for the Panthers as Newton, LaFell, McManus, and critically, David Johnson all came up small for the Avengers. The Panthers could even afford the error of starting Gillislee over Tevin Coleman as they took a 21 point lead to the evenings crucial matchup between Seattle and Green Bay.

The lead would have been worrying for the Avengers, but with the Mike Evans facing the Saints and the Seattle trio of Rawls, Jimmy Graham and the DST they were expected to claw back the Panthers unexpected early lead. In fact, Seattle were 3 point favourites despite being the road team against the Packers.

What happened next probably doesn’t need repeating. The Packers destroyed the Seahawks at Lambeau with Jordy Nelson scoring 10 points more than all 3 Seahawks combined and with Mike Evans making a paltry 4 points against the #29 pass defence it was up to Panthers K Mason Crosby  and his 8 points to apply the coup de gras on the Avengers wonderful season.

The Panthers face the Kelso 187’s in next week’s semi final.

Road to the Playoffs

All 64 remaining scenarios were analysed. No possibility of tied games was considered.

The maximum points any team could gain or lose used in tiebreaker calculations was 74.

Note: Some ‘weak division’ scenarios (25%) may have impacted wildcard calculations (see instructions).

No scenario was analysed in which a team with less than 6 wins got a wildcard spot.

In all scenarios analysed 8 wins was guaranteed a wildcard spot.

Earlstonian Bohemians (6-6-0)…. Division odds: Clinch 25%. Tie 25%. Wildcard odds: Clinch 18%. Tie 6%.
Kelsae Avengers (7-5-0)…. ELIMINATED from division race. Wildcard odds: Clinch 84%. Tie 0%.
Kelso 187’s (8-4-0)…. CLINCHED a DIVISION spot!
Tranent Tigers (4-8-0)…. ELIMINATED from playoff contention.
Tweedbank Pirates (6-6-0)….. Division odds: Clinch 50%. Tie 25%. Wildcard odds: Clinch 0%. Tie 6%.
Pilton Panthers (6-6-0)…. ELIMINATED from wildcard race but still in division race. Division odds: Clinch 75%. Tie 0%.
Earlston Earthquakes (3-9-0)…. ELIMINATED from playoff contention.
Nitten Pickaxe (5-7-0)…. Division odds: Clinch 25%. Tie 0%. Wildcard odds: Clinch 12%. Tie 0%.
Fife Fire (4-8-0)…… ELIMINATED from playoff contention.
SanFran-Gordon 69ers (6-6-0)…. ELIMINATED from division race. Wildcard odds: Clinch 68%. Tie 0%.
Fog on the Tyne (6-6-0)…. ELIMINATED from division race. Wildcard odds: Clinch 34%. Tie 0%.
Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars (11-1-0)… CLINCHED a DIVISION spot!

Upcoming round’s DIVISION paths-to-clinch (if any)…

Earlstonian Bohemians CLINCH a Division spot IF:
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Earlstonian Bohemians BEAT Fife Fire

Earlstonian Bohemians clinch at least a tie for a Division spot (points tiebreaker to resolve) IF:
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates
Could fight for points tiebreaker with: Tweedbank Pirates

Tweedbank Pirates CLINCH a Division spot IF:
Tweedbank Pirates BEAT Earlston Earthquakes

Tweedbank Pirates clinch at least a tie for a Division spot (points tiebreaker to resolve) IF:
Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians
Could fight for points tiebreaker with: Earlstonian Bohemians

Pilton Panthers CLINCH a Division spot IF:
Pilton Panthers BEAT Fog on the Tyne; OR
Tranent Tigers BEAT Nitten Pickaxe

Nitten Pickaxe CLINCH a Division spot IF:
Fog on the Tyne BEAT Pilton Panthers -AND- Nitten Pickaxe BEAT Tranent Tigers

Upcoming round’s PLAYOFF paths-to-clinch (if any)…

Earlstonian Bohemians CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Earlstonian Bohemians BEAT Fife Fire; OR
Earlstonian Bohemians BEAT Fife Fire -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers; OR
Earlstonian Bohemians BEAT Fife Fire -AND- Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars BEAT Kelsae Avengers

Earlstonian Bohemians clinch at least a tie for a Playoff spot (points tiebreaker to resolve) IF:
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Pilton Panthers BEAT Fog on the Tyne -AND- Tranent Tigers BEAT Nitten Pickaxe
Could fight for points tiebreaker with: Tweedbank Pirates , SanFran-Gordon 69ers

Kelsae Avengers CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Kelsae Avengers BEAT Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars; OR
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Pilton Panthers BEAT Fog on the Tyne; OR
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians; OR
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers; OR
Pilton Panthers BEAT Fog on the Tyne -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians; OR
Pilton Panthers BEAT Fog on the Tyne -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers; OR
Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers

Tweedbank Pirates CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Tweedbank Pirates BEAT Earlston Earthquakes

Tweedbank Pirates clinch at least a tie for a Playoff spot (points tiebreaker to resolve) IF:
Pilton Panthers BEAT Fog on the Tyne -AND- Tranent Tigers BEAT Nitten Pickaxe -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians
Could fight for points tiebreaker with: Earlstonian Bohemians, SanFran-Gordon 69ers

Pilton Panthers CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Pilton Panthers BEAT Fog on the Tyne; OR
Tranent Tigers BEAT Nitten Pickaxe

Nitten Pickaxe CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Fog on the Tyne BEAT Pilton Panthers -AND- Nitten Pickaxe BEAT Tranent Tigers; OR
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Nitten Pickaxe BEAT Tranent Tigers -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians; OR
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Nitten Pickaxe BEAT Tranent Tigers -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers; OR
Nitten Pickaxe BEAT Tranent Tigers -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers

SanFran-Gordon 69ers CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
SanFran-Gordon 69ers BEAT Kelso 187’s; OR
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians; OR
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Pilton Panthers BEAT Fog on the Tyne -AND- Tranent Tigers BEAT Nitten Pickaxe; OR
Pilton Panthers BEAT Fog on the Tyne -AND- Tranent Tigers BEAT Nitten Pickaxe -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians

Fog on the Tyne CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Fog on the Tyne BEAT Pilton Panthers -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians; OR
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Fog on the Tyne BEAT Pilton Panthers -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers; OR
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT Tweedbank Pirates -AND- Fog on the Tyne BEAT Pilton Panthers -AND- Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars BEAT Kelsae Avengers; OR
Fog on the Tyne BEAT Pilton Panthers -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers; OR
Fog on the Tyne BEAT Pilton Panthers -AND- Fife Fire BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians -AND- Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars BEAT Kelsae Avengers; OR
Fog on the Tyne BEAT Pilton Panthers -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers -AND- Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars BEAT Kelsae Avengers