View From The Pit 2016 – Finals Week

Well We’ve arrived. The final is here and with it the unexpected prospect of the 69ers vs the Panthers. A bit of a turn up and so many high scoring teams left by the wayside. 69ers have a respectable 3rd ranking in the top scorers but Panthers are a lowly 8th. Clearly they’ve been up for it when it counts, but they have played against the least points in total by some margin.

 

The Saints outscored everyone else last week, we’ve had them before, but heres a perfect song for the week

 

Since its finals week we’ll let the MFLbot have its complete say for a change, then there will be some in depth stats bullshit – so get a cup of tea ready.

Go for it MFLBot:

 

Coming up in a week 16 Earlston Fantasy Football League battle, the 7-6 SanFran-Gordon 69ers play the 7-6 Pilton Panthers at Pilton Park.

SanFran-Gordon 69ers were led in week 15 by a 28.30 point effort from Ty Montgomery, who snuck past the Chicago Bears defense for 1 receiving yards in addition to 162 rushing yards. In addition,Jordan Reed was not injured before the start of his week 15 game, and contributed 0.60 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 16 due to an injured shoulder , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

We need to turn up the intensity,” SanFran-Gordon 69ers coach Richie said.

Pilton Panthers were led in week 15 by a 28.90 point effort from LeSean McCoy, who beat the Cleveland Browns defense for 153 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs in addition to 16 receiving yards.

On any given day any team is capable of beating another team,” Pilton Panthers coach Rab said.

In week 7, SanFran-Gordon 69ers defeated Pilton Panthers by 13.68 points, so coach Rab is looking for revenge this week. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, SanFran-Gordon 69ers hold a 6-0-0 all-time series record against Pilton Panthers.

Thanks Bot, I think.

 

You all read that right, Rab’s Panthers have never beaten the niners – but none of that will matter if the trophy gets lifted next week.

 

Lets look at some stats to see where we are at, if you really dont want my stats, but do want my preview – the preview proper starts at the end of the second table – so lots of scrolling on a phone.

STAT TIME – yeah!

These tables contain the real data of; year to date points, the average, the minimum score and the maximum score, those are absolute values and not subject to opinion. However the next 4 columns are less factual – and could be completely misleading:

Median is similar to average score, but is the middle value of the scores for the past 15 weeks – rather than the average.

Cons is consistency – in my calculations it’s the average (Mean for you maths geeks) minus the median score. My feeling is that the lower this value (or closest to zero – negative scores are also ‘bad’) the more consistent the player has been over the season. the reasoning is that the mean score is really strongly affected by a rogue low or high score, whereas the median score is less so. The ideal player would have a high average and also a low Cons number. This is pure conjecture on my part – and I’ve not really checked it out – I worked out consistency a different way a couple of years ago if anyone is interested, however it does show that QBs, TEs and DSTs have higher Cons numbers than the other positions in general.

Closest week is the score that the player got against the same team that they are playing in week 16 or the closest team in terms of points allowed to that position. Rank is the consensus rankings from Fantasypros.com

Niners:

Player/Week YTD Avg Min Max Median Cons closest week rank
Luck, Andrew IND QB 268.44 20.65 11.08 35.50 18.80 1.85 Week 1 – 35.5 3
Hyde, Carlos SFO RB 156.90 13.08 1.40 26.00 12.45 0.63 Week 1 – 21.3 10
Murray, DeMarco TEN RB 233.90 16.71 8.40 26.00 14.85 1.86 Week 8 – 18.8 5
Baldwin, Doug SEA WR 131.50 9.39 2.00 23.90 6.70 2.69 Week 7 – 6.9 14
Hill, Tyreek KCC WR 118.40 8.46 0.70 17.50 7.70 0.76 Week 12 – 17.5 32
Hogan, Chris NEP WR 87.00 6.69 0.00 19.60 5.90 0.79 Week 12 – 7 54
Jones, Julio ATL WR 155.30 12.94 1.60 36.00 13.05 -0.11 Week 4 – 36 7
Montgomery, Ty GBP WR 87.40 6.72 -0.10 28.30 4.40 2.32 Week 2 – 0 20
Reed, Jordan WAS TE 94.60 8.60 0.60 21.50 6.40 2.20 Week 5 – 5.3 11
Clay, Charles BUF TE (Q) 56.70 4.36 0.00 13.20 2.90 1.46 Week 7 – 2.9 18
Gates, Antonio SDC TE 68.90 5.74 0.00 13.50 4.95 0.79 Week 14 – 6.1 10
Henry, Hunter SDC TE (R) 84.50 6.50 0.00 14.30 7.10 -0.60 Week 14 – 7.3 13
Vinatieri, Adam IND PK 128.00 9.14 1.00 21.00 10.00 -0.86 Week 4 – 11 7
Packers, Green Bay GBP Def 85.00 6.07 -3.00 19.00 6.00 0.07 Week 2 – 7 5
Giants, New York NYG Def 116.00 8.29 0.00 23.00 6.00 2.29 Week 9 – 6 9
Possible ‘closest week’ score 161.9

Panthers

Player/Week YTD Avg min max median cons closest week rank
Cousins, Kirk WAS QB 262 18.714 9.96 30.16 18.11 0.604 Week 13- 17.84 8
Rivers, Philip SDC QB 230.2 16.443 9.44 26.36 15.22 1.223 Week 7 – 15.64 6
Coleman, Tevin ATL RB 128.7 11.7 1.7 26.9 11.7 0 Week 4 – 3.3 26
Gillislee, Mike BUF RB 96.6 7.431 -0.4 16.9 7.2 0.231 Week 7 – 2 38
McCoy, LeSean BUF RB 226.2 17.4 1.1 32.2 16.8 0.6 Week 7 – 1.1 3
Yeldon, T.J. JAC RB 88.2 6.3 2 12.9 5.75 0.55 Week 8 – 5.6 35
Ginn Jr., Ted CAR WR 96.8 6.914 0.5 18.8 5.45 1.464 Week 4 – 1.4 46
Jackson, DeSean WAS WR 109.7 8.438 0.5 17.8 5.9 2.538 Week 15 – 11.1 23
Landry, Jarvis MIA WR 123.8 8.843 3 19.6 8.7 0.143 Week 7 – 9.8 21
Nelson, Jordy GBP WR 174.7 12.479 0.9 22.1 12.85 -0.371 Week 2 – 13.3 5
Woods, Robert BUF WR 59.3 5.391 0.5 16.2 4.1 1.291 Week 15 – 0.5 73
Ebron, Eric DET TE 67.8 6.164 0 13.1 5.3 0.864 Week 7 – 7.9 12
Ertz, Zach PHI TE 76.4 6.367 1.4 13.9 5.65 0.717 Week 9 – 9.7 7
Crosby, Mason GBP PK 109 7.786 2 12 8 -0.214 Week 2 – 2 13
Chiefs, Kansas City KCC Def 144 10.286 -2 35 10.5 -0.214 Week 12 – 15 3
Possible ‘closest week’ score
87.64

The ‘closest week’  analysis puts the Niners  favourites by quite some way, nearly doubling the Panthers points and getting the yearly top score to boot – however the consensus rankings put the matchup much closer.

At QB it may be a tough choice for Rab, Pip Rivers is the critics choice in rankings, but its pretty close between him and Cousins, Both look likely to score somewhere between 15 -20 – 25 at the outside. Chargers are eliminated from the playoffs, I cant really see why Rivers is ranked better than Cousins. Either of them will likely not match Andrew Luck’s scoring though, Colts are still in the running for a playoff spot – just, and that could really bring out the best in the QB.

At RB Rab has a very slight advantage for RB1 with Lesean McCoy over Murray in terms of the rankings, however the similar week scores are a total disaster for MCoy. At RB2 its Richie all the way – Carlos Hyde outranks everyone on the Panthers roster and had a great game in week 1 against a better Raiders team.

WR has Jordy Nelson matched against Julio Jones. This is a well balanced pairing, but of course Jones may not yet be fit for Richie. That would be a real disaster and drop his WR 3 way down the rankings. Richie has gambled a bit having just 2 RBs for the final week – so we can guarantee that 3 of these WRs will play. Rab has a bit of choice at WR2  and Flex – but look for Jackson and Landry to get the starts here.

TE  is a bit WTF – how did Richie end up with 4 TEs this week – you know you can only play one right? I could understand if you were trying to disrupt Rab, but all 4 of them are ranked lower than Rab’s Zach Ertz. They are also too colse to call for who will get the start – there will surely be 2 TDs between the four of them – but picking the one who will get one of those, let alone 2, will be sticking a pin. I’m sure we’ll hear some explanation on the chat in any case.

Flex is very close in rankings – expect two Wideouts to start here, Jackson and Montgomery look the most likely, though Julio’s status could change all that of course.

Both teams have solid kickers, Mason Crosby is perhaps a little lowly for this stage in the game, but he’s more than capable. Adam Vinatieri was an expensive pickup way back, but that will look like a good move if he goes 10+ in the final.

Finally DST – the Chiefs have been  bossing it all season for Rab – not the highest averaging, but capable of monster scores. The Packers or the Giants look reasonable choices for Richie, which to go with is a touch decision, but Packers maybe have a little more to lose and will be out for blood.

The biggest interest has to be the Vikings Packers game – though no  one has any Vikings worth mentioning, both teams have a few Packers – and this gone game will almost certainly help decide the whole league destiny. If either team gets 10 more than the other here – that could seal the deal.

And with that its all done – I think I promised some stats last year and never did it – but i will have another look at it and see if there’s some 20 20 hindsight that i can bring you in a couple of weeks- have a great final you 2 , and evetyone else have a great break – see youz in the new year.

 

 

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