View From The Pit 2016 – semi finals week 15

Here we are then, four teams left and at least two of them quite unexpected before last week. Stuart’s Avengers must be still shell shocked, but that’s the way it goes, one of these four will have their name on the trophy in just two weeks time.

The falcons did it again last week with a monster 42 vs the Rams,we’ve had that team tune already, so I’ll use it as an excuse to put this far out video from Atlanta’s Mastodon

 

69ers at Jaguars

7-6 SanFran-Gordon 69ers face off against the 11-2 Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars at Greendale Stadium.

SanFran-Gordon 69ers were led in week 14 by a 26.00 point effort from Carlos Hyde.

Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars were led in week 14 by a 21.24 point effort from Aaron Rodgers. In addition, Donte Moncrief was not injured before the start of his week 14 game, and contributed 0.00 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 15 due to an injured hamstring , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

In week 2, Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars defeated SanFran-Gordon 69ers by 14.70 points, so coach Richie is looking for revenge this week. In the 4-year history of this rivalry, SanFran-Gordon 69ers hold a 0-4-0 all-time series record against Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars.

Richie has made five changes today in a bid for last minute glory, though it looks likely that only Hauschka and The Falcons will get the start this weekend. That added depth could be helpful in the final week if Richie makes it and with just that one week to go it was maybe a canny move, as the other contenders are down a few more players that they can pick from. The starters for the niners look strong., no one ranked below 17 (Tyreek Hill at flex). ?however there’s no top 1 or 2 players with that guarantee of 100 yds and a TD and no guarantees for those early teen ranked players. Demarco Murray is surely the standout here, with just one week below 10 pts, and even that at 8.5, he’s a strong contender this week despite his ‘lowly’ #5 ranking, the Chiefs have let in 17.5 pts to opposing RBs this year on average, so there’s a good chance at both yards and TDs. Julio Jones could be the make or break for Richie this week, he’s recovering from a bit of turf toe, and the signs point to the Falcons leaning on the run a bit more against the 49ers, but can you really leave out Jones from your starting lineup? it would be a brave coach who benched him, and he only needs one long catch to make his selections worthwhile, who knows..

Jimmy’s two time winning Jags have failed to break 100 pts for 4 weeks in a row  now, is this the beginning of the end for the early unstoppable Jaguars? I’  not sure, its been a regulation 95 pts for 3 of those 4 weeks and lineup choices could have made it 99 in the lowest of the 4, so there are still points in the team yet. However, rankings wise there is no contest at all, Jimmy is behind at all positions except QB, TE and DST. Lets think about that though – QB, TE and DST also have the highest deviation in points (maybe besides some pretty huge kicker outliers this season) QBs have been 10-30ish – TEs 0-15 and DST from minus pts to 20 or so. RB1 and WR1 are must more consistent at the 10-20 pt with similar but shorter scores for the other positions. That wee stats interlude tells us this – although he’s outranked, Jimmy has given himself the better chance in the positions with the most ‘swing’ so don’t count this team out just yet. Aaron Rogers looks to be the star yet again, but maybe this is the week that Doug Martin proves his £86 flex dollar value – he’s ranked as a pretty solid flex play this week and that could translate to a very reasonable 7-15 pts.

The 49ers Falcons game is where Richie has to make his points, that has to wait till after 9 on sunday though, but still he should know which way the wind is blowing before bed time. If Jones and the Falcons DST have more than 20 between them (apart from the 10 starting dst pts) by 10.30 Sunday night this looks to be going Richie’s way. On the other side its the Steelers Bengals Game, Tyler Eiffert is absolutely crucial to Jimmy’s chance at a third league title, and if AJ Green is fit, that’s a big bonus, but its a big if too. Jimmy will want a bit more from these 2, maybe 25 between them, to feel fairly secure going into the later games.

In the end though, I’m calling it for the 69ers, Richie may get a chance at that trophy after all.

Panthers at 187s

7-6 Pilton Panthers, who hope to extend their 3 game winning streak, face off against the 8-5 Kelso 187’s at Compton Palace.

Pilton Panthers were led in week 14 by a 16.80 point effort from LeSean McCoy.

Kelso 187’s were led in week 14 by a 15.40 point effort from Odell Beckham. In addition, Michael Crabtree was not injured before the start of his week 14 game, and contributed 2.10 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 15 due to an injured finger , which might severely limit his fantasy production.

In week 4, Kelso 187’s defeated Pilton Panthers by 22.90 points, so coach Rab is looking for revenge this week. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Pilton Panthers hold a 2-1-0 all-time series record against Kelso 187’s.

So, the Panthers lucked out facing a crash and burn Avengers team last week, but here they are and no one’s run to the playoffs has been a gift, so a justified semi final place for Rab. Kirk cousins has been solid, though his average has been boosted by a couple of monster weeks, and in reality most of the season has been 15-18 rather than his 19 pts a game average, however he has the good to justify his #3 rank this week facing a middle of the road pass Defense in Carolina. Pip rivers is worth a look though, he has the Raiders at home this week and they’ve let in almost the exact same pts to opposing QBs in 17.5 this season. Lesean Mcoy and Jordy Nelson have been pretty solid for Rab all season with just one serious blip for Nelson way back in week 7, anything less than 25 pts between the tow of them will leave the Panthers on a shoogly peg this week. Elsewhere in the lineup Tevin Coleman and Desean Jackson look to be getting starts and should keep the pts ticking over during the game. Mason crosby and the Chiefs ahve as good a chance as anyone to get some ‘bonus’ pts for the Panthers. Fle might end up being more of a tricky decision, jarvis Landry is ranked a little higher, but there is generally a higher floor for RBs in these lower ranks, so either Yeldon or Gillislee could be tempting for Rab.

187s, though putting up the numbers during the season, are  now seriously struggling for a bit of depth. Odell Beckham is of course the star, and Dak Prescott has been confounding his critics all year long (though he still ranks a lowly 15 in QBs). RB is the problem here, Bilal Powel and Ryan Matthews were nowhere near anyone’s top picks in the draft but that’s where we’ve ended up for the 187s. Sure on good days they are more than capable of getting those all important TDs, Powel was close to 30 last week after all, but the week beopfe that was .3, and there’s been plenty of other weeks less than 5 too. Matthews has been more consistent, b ut his average is skewed by a monster performance in week 10 and very little else. Euan could well be relying on the less glory laden positions to get through to the final – TE, Kicker and DST look to be ranked in his favour, in fact, though Kye Rudolph is only averaging just over 7 pts a game, he has one of the best floors of all TE’s, as they’ve been so inconsistent. Texans will likely get the start over the Giants at DST and the Jaguars have allowed nearly 10 pts a game to opposition DST, so there’s a good chance for points there.

Whilst no game stands out as being make or break for this matchup, the Carolina at Washington game has opposing interest for these two and also the Lions at Giants. with the Washinton game on Monday night it will surely be a late decision as to who reaches the final.

 

 

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