View From the Pit 2016 – Week 4

Week 4 upon us already, that’s nearly a month since the excitement of the draft, seems a long time ago now, there’s already been well over 60 transactions – over a third of our drafted players have been cut and new blood picked up. A couple of season ending injuries have shifted things about a bit too. Week 3 saw a massive game with the Falcons putting up 45 massive points – not many songs about Atlanta – plenty about Georgia of course – but a quick dig on youtube discovered this:

Falcons on Top, Falcons gonna win – wow, that is lame, can anyone write a decent sports anthem? – better than that Jets Lenny Kravitz one though? – and this video does have cheerleaders in it – so there’s that.

Back to the action.

Hate to tell you guys, but there is no simple maths to protect you any more, with week 3 fixtures there were no teams guaranteed to be 3-0 or 0-3 – but that is what we’ve ended up with. Its getting late for the Quakes and the Avengers – but still time to rescue those seasons, so lets take a look at their chances.

STOP THE PRESS,

I’ve written this over 2 nights, as I frantically remembered to put my waiver requests in last night, not that I should have bothered as Jimmy has gone for broke with Doug Baldwin. $86! Thats a big play and we’ll see how it pans out come week 7 when he may be back in action. It will certainly liven up everyone else’s waiver bids as anything over $5 is guaranteed to stop Jimmy at least!

Earthquakes at Jaguars

0-3 Earlston Earthquakes, who hope to end their 3 game losing streak, challenge the 3-0 Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars at Greendale Stadium.

Earthquakes were led in week 3 by a 18.70 point effort fromMark Ingram. Earthquakes can expect a 17.29 point effort from Joe Flacco in week 4.

Jaguars were led in week 3 by a 32.50 point effort fromMarvin Jones. Jaguars can expect a 18.89 point effort from Blake Bortles in week 4.

This week sees a top to bottom tussle. As in previous seasons Cozy is leaving it a little late to start whereas Jimmy is straight out of the traps with waivers and trades galore. Although The Quakes have not really had a good run yet- there is a glimmer of hope as there were a whole heap of points left on the bench last week, where Jimmy has been playing the Jags pretty much to the limit. Chris needs to see some good waiver or trade action this week as without it Jimmy’s stellar WR trio will surely do some damage – you’d expect 3 TDs at least between them. Chris’s problem may be deciding who to leave out again from Decker, Crabtree and Sanders as they are group together real snug in the consensus rankings at 23, 24,25. Decker has a poor matchup where Sanders has a pretty good one, that might help the decision,but it will be a tough call. There is room to maneuver in both kicker and DST this week too – so we may see some big changes.

Jimmy doesn’t maybe need to work on his team too much this week – but that never usually stops him so look out for some more roster changes tomorrow . Its likely that RB will be the place that the Jags try to bolster, as its there that they are much weaker than at WR. (Well that didn’t pan out did it)

So, for the rest of the leagues sake, can the Earthquakes make the earth move under Jimmy. As of tonight it doesn’t look likely, but anything is possible. The Pit has to go with the numbers right now though – and on that basis its a win for the Jags.

Earlston Earthquakes hold a 3-2-0 all-time series record against Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars.

Game to watch: Well of course everyone else in the league will be hoping that Doug Baldwin’s leg is still fecked, but its the Dolphins at Bengals Thursday night  game that will set the tone for this matchup – Chis needs to hope for a couple of Fins pickoffs that were heading to AJ Green. The Dolphins have a good history in the matchup and the game tends to be low scoring, which suits Chris better. To be in with a chance, Chis needs AJ Green to be held to less than 8 and the Dolphins DST to get over 12.

Bohemians at Avengers

1-2 Earlstonian Bohemians face off against the 0-3 Kelsae Avengers at Samuel Sawyer Memorial Park.

Bohemians were led in week 3 by a 14.02 point effort from Russell Wilson. Bohemians can expect a 18.82 point effort from Russell Wilson in week 4.

Avengers were led in week 3 by a 23.10 point effort from David Johnson, Avengers can expect a 25.56 point effort from Cam Newton in week 4.

Avengers are another team that’s just not got moving so far, there’s been a few bench points but last week the usually reliable Cam Newton was possibly the main cause of Stuart’s woes. That and Jimmy Graham getting straight back to it with 15 bench points. Ally has let his lineup choices slip a little too, Legarette Blount would have made a decent dent in the scorecard last week, but he was benched.

The big news for this game is the return of Leveon Bell though, Ally will now be hoping that his star RB can make good on his promise to deliver 10 weeks of consistency after serving a suspension. As long as he’s been training hard we should see him slot right back in to the  Steelers offense, which could boost stats for a few other players too. Stuart can compete with Bell though – David Johnson is the star back in Atlanta and has proven his worth as a top pick so far.

Allys RB depth is almost too much – you cannae play em all Ally, and no doubt there will be a couple of TDs from the bench, Ally just has to hope that most of them come from whichever 3 backs he ends up going with. Stuarts selection process will be a little easier. with a couple of players on bye weeks WR must be just about sewn up along with a resurgent Jimmy Graham at TE.

This one could go either way but even with their bye week woes, it should be time for the Avengers to get their first win of the season.

Game to watch – its got to be the Hawks at the Jets in the Sunday Early game. Ally will want a lead from the Jets, putting a dent in the DST  score for Stuart but also encouraging Russel Wilson to throw long, preferably past Jimmy Graham, who doesn’t seem ready for long plays just yet. If it goes the other way and Seattle stifle the Jets early on – its game over for Ally’s Bohos.

 

Pirates at Fog

3-0 Tweedbank Pirates, who hope to extend their 3 game winning streak, face off against the 1-2 Fog on the Tyne at New St James Park.

Pirates were led in week 3 by a 26.50 point effort from Matthew Stafford. Pirates can expect a 21.27 point effort from Matthew Stafford in week 4.

Fog were led in week 3 by a 26.70 point effort from Devonta Freeman. In addition, Michael Floyd was not injured before the start of his week 3 game, and contributed 6.50 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 4 due to a concussion, which might severely limit his fantasy production.Fog can expect a 15.51 point effort from Derek Carr in week 4.

Fog have had 1 decent week sandwiched between a couple of real dodgy ones. Coach Stuart has not been the most active on the Waivers, having to recruit a backup TE for a week and grabbing a sleeper RB. However, that could just be because he has a solid all round team. With Gronk back in the mix anything is possible, though he was hled to no points on the weekend. Stuart has to hope for some redzone touches for any of his outfield players and a couple of lucky breaks because Paul’s QB, RBs and WRs are all ranked considerably higher. The reality of that is that is its works out at about 15 -20 yards for each position, or about 7-10 pts overall, so 2 ‘bonus’ TDs are required to even that out. We all know that is well within the possibilities of any of our teams .

Will it happen is the question. Paul is riding a massive winning streak (though perhaps a little lucky in week 2) but breaking down those numbers we can see that all of his players have been pretty inconsistent – no outfield player has scored more than 10in all three games (to be fair not many teams can claim this, but it does demonstrate that in a poor week , when the TDs don’t go your way you need players who can get 80-100 yds, not just 30-40.

I’m getting bogged down there in maths I can’t actually be bothered to do, and of course the rankings already take that into account, but in this game, though Fogs team are rated lower, I do think they have a good chance to score more overall TDs than Pirates and so the pit goes with the Fog.

In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Tweedbank Pirates hold a 1-3-0 all-time series record against Fog on the Tyne.

 

Game to watch – there’s not much action between the teams, so its every man for himself here. Stuart will have an eye on the Pats Bills game for sure whereas Paul will probably want most of his many screens in action to keep track.

 

69ers at Pickaxe

1-2 SanFran-Gordon 69ers face off against the 3-0 Nitten Pickaxe at New Victoria Park.

69ers were led in week 3 by a 23.10 point effort from Christine Michael. 69ers can expect a 15.79 point effort from Andrew Luck in week 4.

Pickaxe were led in week 3 by a 21.70 point effort from Jeremy Hill. In addition, Matt Ryan was not injured before the start of his week 3 game, and contributed 19.90 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 4 due to an injured thumb , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Pickaxe can expect a 18.52 point effort from Ben Roethlisberger.

Neck on the line time, this could be the highest scoring game of the week. As I keep banging on about, this is a game with more than average chances of TDs, with 5 or more outfield TDs possible on both sides – we wont see 10 between the 2 teams though – so where they fall will decide the match.

Kenneth Dixon doesn’t quite look ready to return to action – though if he does, even for a few snaps, it could give coach Gav a chance to access whether he is still worth stashing 4 games in. Zek Elliot showed a bit more promise last week, grinding out a good 16 pts with no TDs, hopefully we’ve seen the end of his fumbles.

69ers have been pretty unlucky to be at 1-2, with only week 3 seeing them drop below the regulation 95 pts. Demarco ?Murray is one of the few players who has managed to keep a consistent score above 14 pts, and there’s no likelihood of that stopping this week. He’s ranked a couple of places below Zeke, but that’s maybe 5 or 6 yards in the grand scheme of things, so nothing to worry about for Richie. Its WR that could do with a bit of a boost this week  for Richie, though Julio Jones could maybe do enough on his own I guess.

All in this is a close game, but the pit is going for the Pickaxe to go 4-0

In the 3-year history of this rivalry, SanFran-Gordon 69ers hold a 1-3-0 all-time series record against Nitten Pickaxe.

Game to Watch – again across the 2 teams thers not much in the way of conflict – maybe Riche will set himself up for a Sunday afternoon watching the London Game. Andrew Luck and Adam Vinatieri could both have a good game, but the kickers pts can of course be more limited if Luck gets the ball in the end zone every time. As usual for Gav its Dallas who hold the draw in a Sunday later game, Zeke and Dez have not had a great game together yet – and maybe that’s unlikely but against the 49ers anything is possible.

187s at Panthers

2-1 Kelso 187’s face off against the 1-2 Pilton Panthers at Pilton Park.

187’s were led in week 3 by a 14.00 point effort from Eli Manning. In addition, Chris Ivory was not injured before the start of his week 3 game, and contributed 2.30 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 4 due to an injured lower leg , which might severely limit his fantasy production. 187’s can expect a 18.46 point effort from Eli Manning in week 4.

Panthers were led in week 3 by a 35.00 point effort from the Kansas City Chiefs Defensive Team. In addition, Jarvis Landry was not injured before the start of his week 3 game, and contributed 19.60 points, but he's listed as questionable in week 4 due to an injured shoulder , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Panthers can expect a 21.05 point effort from Philip Rivers in week 4.

You read that right 35 points for a DST – 6 interceptions and 2 TDs – is that a league high for DST? In any case, it probably wont happen again for a wee while, everyone else in the league just glad it wasn’t them and coach Ally of the Bohos not too bothered as even a negative score for the chiefs would still have been enough last week.

Looks like Rab is sticking with Rivers at QB this week, which the stats say is a good idea, he’s ranked number 2 this week by many folk. However, that’s about the only highlight for the Panthers, 187s pip them in rankings at nearly every outfield spot. Dennis Pitta is a lone exception, but even then, Kyle Rudolph for the 187s is not far behind. Jordy Nelson and Mason Crosby on bye weeks is going to hurt Rab, but there is potential for scores within the roster this week, Rivers could be in for a great game against a less than effective saints D, McCoy and Coleman at RB have a good chance for 2 TDs between them and Jarvis Landry may have hit a hot streak with a couple of 100yd games.

On the other side the 187s bring the big guns. Coach Euan is electing to stay with Eli Manning despite some less than stellar scores over 3 weeks, but surely a bigger game is to come, perhaps not this week against the Vikings, he doesn’t go till Monday though – so there could still be a change. Beckham and Benjamin at WR have been erratic, but both have huge ceilings, and coming off a zero point game he has a point to prove in Atlanta. Maybe Sterling Shepard will get the start, he’s been holding the ammunition for the 187s so far this season, but has more than 10 pts in every game so far, a tough choice between him and Will Fuller maybe? Dan Bailey and the Bengals look locked in for this week and Euan is unlikely to find much more on the wire.

There could be a surprise, but the stats say the 187s by 20 pts ish, and that is where the smart money goes this week.

In the 2-year history of this rivalry, Kelso 187’s hold a 0-2-0 all-time series record against Pilton Panthers.

Game to watch – Chargers Saints in the Sunday later game, Rab needs Rivers to be throwing, where Euan wants the opposite so  Melvin Gordon can run, so this game could be the deciding factor. Philip Rivers is on the verge of a hidden record – if he throws one more pass (caught or not) without a pick that will be 100 to open the season, which will be an NFL record.

Fire at Tigers

2-1 Fife Fire play the 1-2 Tranent Tigers at Polson Park.

Fire were led in week 3 by a 25.94 point effort from Drew Brees. Fire can expect a 20.45 point effort from Drew Brees in week 4.

Tigers were led in week 3 by a 26.50 point effort from Jameis Winston. In addition, Jeremy Langford was not injured before the start of his week 3 game, and contributed 4.60 points, but he’s listed as doubtful in week 4 due to an injured ankle , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Tigers can expect a 15.67 point effort from Jameis Winston in week 4.

Tom Brady is still sitting out there in suspended animation, but the Pats are doing quite well without him thanks very much, which could be a worry for Nicky even when he does return, but who needs him anyway when Jameis Winston is putting up 22 pts a game with no problem? Antonio Brown and Alshon Jeffrey and Demaryius Thomas on paper should be a WR dream team, but again, all of them have dipped below the regulation 10 pts so far. Long TDs will win you games, but they cannot be relied upon week in week out, and it shows for Nicky leaving him well below 100 for the last 2 weeks.

Meanwhile Fire may get some of their fuel back if Willie Snead and Delanie Walker come back from injury this week – there’s no guarantee of either of those, but they are not listed as ‘out’ so there’s hope. Drew Brees had an off week in week 2 but bounced back and has a reasonable matchup against the chargers Sunday later game. Hyde and Riddick should really get more points on the board than Nicky’s RB team, Shaun perhaps needs to worry a little more about his receivers, who after DeAndre Hopkins are looking a little on the thin side this week, if snead and Walker are not back there could be a problem. Shaun does not want to be reliant on a kicker, but if he’s within 5 points by Monday morning then Blair Walsh will see him safe on Monday night football.

However, with those injuries and Winston on a bit of a roll, this week its hard to see past Nicky’s Tigers.

Game to watch – not a lot happening between the teams, but perhaps Nicky will have an eye on the Late Chiefs Steelers Game where star WR Antonio Brown is up against a Chiefs Defense that picked off 6 times and scored 2 TDs last week, though even if that happens again, it will only force Big Ben to throw even more – could be interesting? For Shaun he can pick and chose his games to watch

 

and that’s yer lot,

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