View From the Pit 2015 – the Earlston Bowl

The end of the season, the final bow, a final chance at glory and a first final for our commissioner. Feels like a few of the mighty EFFL 12 may have given up a couple of weeks ago, so this blog may be a bit like a tree falling in a forest. But if you are still reading The big question I’m sure you all have is;have I resisted the temptation to lead with ‘that Europe song’ – yes, let’s find something else…

At least one of these coaches might have to sell their soul to win this weeks final, so this might be more appropriate:

EFFL BoWL Jaguars at Bohemians:

7-6 Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars challenge the 7-6 Earlstonian Bohemians at Bohemian Park.
Jaguars were led in week 15 by a 23.10 point effort from Sammy Watkins,  Jimmy can expect a 20.16 point effort from Tom Brady in week 16

Bohemians were led in week 15 by a 13.60 point effort from Odell Beckham,  In addition,Denard Robinson was not injureed before the start of his week 15 game, and contributed 7.40 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 16 due to an injured foot , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Ally can expect a 16.57 point effort from Odell Beckham in week 16.

In week 11, Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars defeated Earlstonian Bohemians by 10.48 points, so coach Ally is looking for revenge this week. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars hold a 1-2-0 all-time series record against Earlstonian Bohemians.

Bohemians have done enough for ‘home field advantage’  for the final, no idea how that happened as the Jags are way ahead in total points scored. All that means nothing in the final though, the slate is clean. That’s a bit like these rosters – there are very few players that have made it through the season – for Ally it’s just 2nd round Lamar Miller and 5th Round Martavis Bryant that can play, Jimmy has 2nd round Julio Jones, 3rd Round Travis Kelce and 8th Round Tom Brady – 5 players from 30 is a pretty high attrition rate, due to both injuries, suspensions and just not being quite as good as expected. Whatever, the season is won and lost not just on the luck of lack of injuries, but on the waiver wire and the trades. Our two finalists have tried to fill the massive holes punched in these rosters over the season, this last game should find out who is the waiver wizard.

Tom Brady has been consistent over the year, and should get his job done for Jimmy at the Jets on Sunday, Even in a wee quiet path mid season, he was still getting close to 300 yds a game, a and there has been just one game where he’s been limited to a single TD – expect a couple at least this week. Ally has to make a bit of a tough choice between Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater, Bradford has a head start in total completions and yards but Bridgewater is up against the Giants who have allowed the second most points to QBs this year, tough call and it has to be made by Saturday night as Bradford plays in the Saturday night football game.

At RB its a fairly easy choice for Ally, Miller Robinson and Hightower look to be getting the starts, as long as they are fit; Miller and Robinson at both questionable at the time of writing, Rashad Jennings would surely get the go ahead if either are out, as fortunately he’s in the late Sunday game. Jimmy has been scraping the barrel for a fee while now with some disastrous luck at RB. Any of his 4 could get the start as they are pretty close together in rankings and predicted scores; Hill and Powell perhaps? they’ve certainly got the best proven record, but the door is open for someone at the Hawks to prove themselves, could that be another chance for Christine Michael? No one plays tomorrow night so Jimmy has at least till Sunday to work it out and take his gamble – there’s surely at least 2 TDs between the 4 of them? Can the Jag’s coach see through the mist to pick the right ones?

Ally may have to swallow his morals as it looks like Beckham’s suspension has just been lifted (that’s totes unofficial BTW), the bohos coach cannot afford not to play him if that is the case, and it will cause Jimmy a bit of a panic. not to worry too much though Sammy Watkins, Eric Decker and Allen Hurns could all beat OBJ’s score on a good day, WR perhaps the strongest position depth wise for Jimmy. Ally has options in Martavis Bryant and Tyler Locket if he wants to avoid Beckham for any reason, and he has till the lat game Sunday to make those decisions, as only 1 of his wideouts is in the Sunday early game.It was balanced without OBJ, with him it gives Ally a big upper hand here.

 

At TE Jimmy has been riding Travis Kelce all season, and he has just 18 pts worth of TDs to show for that trust. at the Browns he’s got to be odds on for over 50 yds though, with or without a TD he’s as safe a bet as you’ll find at TE. Gary Barnidge on the other hand has 9 TDs to his name and a whole heap of yards. He’s predicted a bigger score than Kelce this week but the stat that interests me here is receptions – he’s actually averaging just about the same receptions as Kelce. The Browns are the easier opponent, so it really comes down to how much Alex Smith can take advantage of a poor pass defense, if he does too well, the Kansas Wideouts will get all the action, and not well enough could be no receptions at all for Kelce, Jimmy is hoping for a ‘goldilocks’ game for the Chiefs then!

Jags Kicker Catanzaro has been mr consistent all year – averaging around 10 pts a game, Jimmy wants a couple of field goals here and will also need Bohemian’s Connor Barth be limited to extra points rather than Field goals. Catanzaro is predicted a bunch more points in any case.

at DST the Texans are more highly ranked than the Cardinals for Jimmy, but ally has gone for the Lions in the waivers. There predicted score is less on MFL, but the vegas odds give them a boost – any points they score against the 49ers will come from sacks and interceptions. A pick six is the dream every week at DST, and there’s no real way to predict that. However Blaine Gabber threw 3 last week for the 49ers against ‘only’ 2 for Zach Mettenberger and the Titans, that gives the Lions DST a slight edge again, but both QBs will be on the practice field this week trying to avoid those turnover stats again.

Where is the trophy going to end up? Jimmy is the champion and has succeeded in keeping his season together this year despite some bad luck with injuries. Ally as commissioner surely wants to bring the trophy to its ‘home’ town for the first time. He’s ridden his luck a bit with a low points for total in the year, but the pit predictor thinks this is a week too far for a rag tag jags team, the trophy will stay in Earlston come superbowl night.

 

that’s me for the year, unless i have time for some number crunching over the holidays, see you all in Feb.

 

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