Kicker Predictatron- Week 15

Wow talk about breaking the model…….The predictatron burnt out spectacularly last week lets hope you didn’t have any playoff hopes riding on your kickers!

With 12 correct predictions, 5 underestimates and a whopping 15 over estimates it was by far the worst predictatron result this season. Through all the Week 14 games, defenses either dominated their opponents or game scripts left teams chasing TDs and 2 point scores. So let’s try again and hopefully it’ll be third week lucky for Mason Crosby who hasn’t had a correct prediction since Week 8!

The 15 underestimates totaled 50 points with Kansas City, Atlanta, Green Bay, Seattle and Tennesse (6,5,5,5 and 5 points respectively). Although in the predictatrons defense two of those teams were highlighted as underperforming risks. The obvious answer for the predictatron failure is Vegas’s overestimation in the gulf between two teams at different ends of the winning spectrum (except Atlanta who underperformed). This may be a deliberate ploy by Vegas and is something I’ll keep in mind when the model is refined during the offseason.

The 5 overestimates totaled 15 points and the biggest over performers of the week belonged to Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia (4,5 and 4 points respectively). Only Indianapolis were on picked as overperformers.

Last week overperformer alerts were Chicago, Oakland and Indianapolis. Chicago and Oakland were a disasters and fell below their prediction (-2 and -1 respectively). Thankfully Indianapolis exceeded theirs (10, range 6-3).

I highlighted a number of underperformer risks; Green Bay, Jets and Kansas City last week. The Jets performed as expected, but Green Bay and Kansas City both underperformed as alerted (-5 and -6 respectively).

This week our underperformer risks are; Buffalo, Detroit, Green Bay and New Orleans. Our overpeformance picks are; Cleveland,  Houston, Indianapolis and Tennessee.

 

TEAM HIGH LOW
Arizona 17 9
Atlanta 6 3
Baltimore 7 4
Buffalo 11 7
Carolina 17 9
Chicago 10 5
Cincinnati 8 5
Cleveland 2 1
Dallas 6 4
Denver 10 5
Detroit 11 7
Green Bay 9 8
Houston 6 3
Indianapolis 6 3
Jacksonville 9 4
Kansas City 9 4
Miami 7 3
Minnesota 9 8
New England 12 8
New Orleans 17 9
NY Giants 13 6
NY Jets 8 6
Oakland 6 3
Philadelphia 10 7
Pittsburgh 17 9
San Diego 8 6
Seattle 11 10
San Francisco 10 5
St. Louis 11 7
Tampa Bay 6 4
Tennessee 4 3
Washington 7 3
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