View From the Pit 2015 – Semi Final

We’ve arrived at week fifteen, and down to the final 4. the other 8 have nothing to cheer about till drafty day sometime in September, it’s a lot like the post apocalypse world in this video, or something. Maybe that’s just how it feels when you are out: (not kid friendly)

 

 

Jaguars at Panthers

2016. 7-6 Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars face off against the 10-3 Pilton Panthers at Pilton Park.
Jaguars were led in week 14 by a 18.04 point effort from Tom BradyLeGarrette Blount was not injured before the start of his week 14 game, and contributed 5.30 points, but he’s listed as out in week 15 due to an injured hip , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars can expect a 22.59 point effort from Tom Brady in week 15

Panthers were led in week 14 by a 16.70 point effort from Alshon Jeffery. Pilton Panthers can expect a 15.30 point effort from Ben Roethlisberger in week 15

In week 6, Pilton Panthers defeated Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars by 40.14 points, so coach Jimmy is looking for revenge this week. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars hold a 3-1-0 all-time series record against Pilton Panthers.

Rab and his Panthers had a nice week off last week. King of all he surveys for at least a few days, Rab needs to hold on tightly to that paper crown if he wants to make it gold – last years champs didn’t take the trophy to Germany for nothing.

We’ve got actiona all over the weekend here, from Thursday to Sunday we can expect fireworks.Who will get the early Chritmas present of a place in the final though?

At QB it’s Jags all the way; Brady is up agains the Titan’s who have given away the 5th most points of any defense to QBs this year. Rab’s Panthers have a tough choice, Big Ben is maybe in front, but he’s up against a Broncos team who have let in an average of  just 11.2 pts to QBs. Pip Rivers is the other choice, who’se3 not thrown a TD in 2 games, he could bounce back against the 10th ranked Dolphins, Rab has till 9 to work it out though, as both players go in West coast Sunday games.

Jimmy is going with 3 RBs whilst Rab looks to be sticking to just 2, either of those could swap to WR or vice versa though before kick off . First to have to decide is Rab, as Doug Martin is up against the Rams on Thursday night – he looks a safe bet to make the team and the Rams are giving up plenty of points to RBs ranked at 7th in points allowed. On the other side Jimmy has to make a decision about Ameer Abdullah earlier than he might like – although Abdullah is playing Monday the most likely alternative starters play by 9.25 at the latest, and there may not be a spot left for the Lions RB. Javorious Allen for Rab looks a likely starter, but Jimmy has a tougher decision, and it could be down to luck who he picks here. Jeremy Hill and Bilal Powel are up against some shaky run DST from this year, but may still not be the only choices, Bryce Brown could come out of nowhere as the free agent to RB for the Seahawks with Rawls out for the duration after Marshawn Lynch.

Rab has a distinct advantage at WR, with 3 players predicted and ranked higher than any of the Jags. All of them will be getting their points on the board in the Sunday afternoon games and look likely to score 10 pts each – Rab will want 2 TDs between the 3 of them before bedtime to be happy. Of course, though predicted less yardage and touches, a deep TD pass can easily double a WRs predicted score in a moment. Either of Eric Decker or Allen Hurns is capable of that, but dont be surprised to see Sammy Watkins sneak into the Jags team late on. He’s up against a much more WR friendly Defense than either of the Jags current lineup. the Decision needs to be made before 6 on sunday though.

At TE its almost certainly Olsen for the Panthers, unless something dramatic happens in the next couple of days, his points will be on Rabs card by 9 on sunday night. Jimmy has a decision to make again, nither of his 2 TEs are predicted a stellar score, but both are capable of a TD, Kelce has the yards but miller has the TDs, and hes’ up against a friendly defense – maybe a tough call, but at the moment Jimmy is gambling on those TDs and going with Miller, agains 6.00 Sunday is crunch time.

Jimmy has a decent advantage at Kicker, with a pretty great average for the Cardinals Chandler Catanzaro. Matt Prater is no slouch, but the Lions are out of the playoff hunt. Of course that could mean that they go for more Fieldgoals rather than risking 4th down plays, so its not a dead loss for Rab either.

At DST Jimmy has ended up with the Cardinals, who have a decent match up against the Eagles on Monday night – the Cards are through, whereas the Eagles need a win, so there could be problems for Jimmy if the Eagles sense any weakness. Rab has a bit of a choice, though its a choice you’d wish for. Both his DST options have lowly opponents, ranked 5th and 6th for points allowed to DST. He’s gone for the Steelers just now up agains the Broncos. the alternative is the Texans , away from home at the Colts, both the Colts and Broncos are still in the hunt, so again, possibilities for a few TDs against either of these, but also the chance for some big interceptions if the games end up close.

all together, this will not be over till Tuesday morning – although the MFL predictions Give it to Rab with 1 still to play by midnight Sunday. The Pit is swithering here – I can see this going Jimmy’s way from early doors, but I’m going to plump for the Panthers for the final.

Bohemians at Fog

7-6 Earlstonian Bohemians face off against the 8-5 Fog on the Tyne at New St James Park.
Bohemians were led in week 14 by a 28.60 point effort from Odell BeckhamSpencer Ware was not injured before the start of his week 14 game, and contributed 5.20points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 15 due to an injured ribs , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Earlstonian Bohemians can expect a 16.02 point effort from Odell Beckham in week 15

Fog were led in week 14 by a 18.50 point effort from Brandon Marshall.  Fog on the Tyne can expect a 16.12 point effort from Tyrod Taylor in week 15″We have to stick to our bread-and-butter offense,” Fog on the Tyne coach Stuart said.

In week 5, Fog on the Tyne defeated Earlstonian Bohemians by 32.16 points, so coach Ally is looking for revenge this week. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Earlstonian Bohemians hold a 2-1-0 all-time series record against Fog on the Tyne.

ally had the worst of this clash early in the season, but no one wants this trophy more than our all powerful commissioner. Stuart has the opportunity to burst that bubble and keep the Earlston trophy out of Earlston for the 3rd year.

There’s no action for either team till early Sunday morning but it looks likely that Ally will hold on to some points till MNF again and hope to smash Stuart’s dream and have him crying like Gazza.

Coach ally went all silent for a day or so  last week when Bengals QB Andy Dalton left the game with barely a half point. All was well for the Bohos last week though, winning without a QB against a woeful Pickaxe performance. There’s always a couple of decent QBs on the waivers and the Bohemians have gone for Marcus Mariota, whose been on just about every team in the EFFL so far this year.He’ll need to stretch those throwing muscles to catch the Fogs Tyrod Taylor who is predicted a pretty straightforward game against Washington. Both play in the 6.00 game, and this will give a good indication of where the game is going.

At RB Stuarts fog get Matt Forte, Lesean Mccoy and Frank Gore. Matt Forte has a bit of a challenge at the Vikings ranked 26th in points allowed to Rbs, but for the other 2 it should be a straight 10 pts each – with any TDs being a bonus. They all kick off in the 6.00 games too, and any one of them can have a runaway game. Lamar Miller Denard Robinson and Tim hightower all have great match ups against low ranked running defenses, 4,3 and 8 respectively. Miller is the only one away from home too – so expect a few more points than usual for these guys. They should still be a couple of points behind the Fog triplets, but that could be wiped out in a single TD. Stuart really needs to capitalise at RB, if Ally gets the same or more TDs at RB, this game could well be over. We’ll have to wait till Tuesday morning to find out though – Bohos will have a target on Sunday night in all likelihood, maybe 10-15 pts if things don’t get wild – any more than that puts too much pressure on Tim Hightower Monday night, he’s good enough but untested for that kind of points pressure.

WR Odell Beckham, with all his athletic catches, cant put the Bohos in the driving seat at WR, Brandon Marshall and Jarvis Landry both have better matchups. Lets not get too exited about any of them however, as they all have disastrous match ups for this week – ranked 25 for Beckham right up to 32 for Martavis Bryant. What does that really mean though? Well it ‘should’ limit WR completions, and since most of these four are looking at 5-8 receptions a game, even being one off the average means a loss of 25-35 yds, 3 pts either way. Fog may have the advantage here as Jarvis Landry has seen a few more targets than any of the other 3. Only Beckham has really been tested against similar ranked opponents this year – its not all in the rankings of course,  he’s scored just 7 points in 2 games against Dallas, ranked 28 but a massive 20 points against the 31st Ranked Falcons – make of that what you will. I see the yards going Fogs way – but those Tds could come from anywhere.

At TE Gary Barnidge for the Bohos has the distinct advantage. Stuart’s Tyler Eifert is still in the Concussion protocol and he may need a last minute replacement. Barnidge has been a pretty safe pair of hands after joining the Bohos out of nowhere mid season, Ally timing his high waiver pick to perfection there. Heath Miller and Zach Ertz are both available for Stuart should he need them – both capable of a decent score on the right day but neither with a great match up – Stuart will be lucky to get 5 points at TE for this game, and will need every yard.

 

Kickers Mason Crosby and Justin Tucker are not so far away – MFL puts them neck and neck in points though the rankings give it to Crosby against the Raiders. The Ravens look to be out of playoff contention whilst the Packers have just about clinched it. whether that means anything in terms of field goals, your guess is as good as mine.

Finally DST. The Jets did OK for Ally last week – sitting in the high teems until finally giving up some points late in the third quarter i think. Stuart has a choice of two DST, though neither look likely to score big – perhaps there’s still, a change to be made here. The Jets go in the unusual Saturday game, so Ally will have something to look forward to on Sunday morning. That will give Stuart the unique opportunity to see there score before deciding how much to gamble on either sticking with the Washington or Philly DST or trying to pick someone else up.

So there you have it. Stuart has the advantage at RB, and if the game was just yards, that would surely be enough, but it’s not and TDs will decide this game for sure – I see 3 outfield TDs as likely for both teams, and if either of them has 4 or five by midnight Sunday its done. All in I’m going with the yards – Fog for the win this time.

 

One more week to go – its a little harder to summon the energy when you are out- but I will give it my best shot – whoever makes it.

 

 

 

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