Highs and Lows of the 2015 Season

2015 was a roller-coaster of a season filled with handcuffs, waiver wire, free agency gems and injuries to stars. In the end the Championship teams were filled with just 7 drafted players and were barely recognisable from their week 8 rosters.

We asked each of our GM’s to give us their own personal high and low point from the season. Some will make surprising reading and others will not so much. Let’s start with the Champion’s division, Uhura.

Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars

Up until the final my high point was the high score of 168, but I guess u have to say that’s has to come second now! Regret is tough as I had no real close games where I could say if only! I never really let anyone go that I regretted, well maybe Julius Thomas and Ted Ginn! But if I hadn’t I would have played both last night and would have had a 3pt total from both and would probably lost so not sure I regret that now! I played Brian Hoyer over Tom Brady because I knew better! That is about all I’ve got that I regretted. If ur after a low point that’s easy, simply going thru 4 or 5 weeks losing top players to season ending injury.

Fog on the Tyne

Pretty easy my high and low. The high was waking up on the Tuesday morning after beating Avengers and clinching the Uhura Division. The low has to be losing the semi final by a short margin knowing I had plenty points on my bench to win and rubbing salt in the wound was knowing I would have won it all if I had only chosen Cooper or Redskins defence that week.

Kelsae Avengers

Biggest regret has to be taking Eddie Lacy with my first pick. The reason is fairly self explanatory! My fist pumping moment has to be beating Richie. Again, fairly self explanatory.

Ah, no regrets from the champion. As for the Lacy pick, I’m sure Stuart isn’t the only coach regretting that pick and more likely there’ll be a few who are glad he went a pick ahead of them. Next to the division with our regular season champion, Shatner.

Pilton Panthers

Don’t have any regrets, my high is winning the division and being regular season champion.

Nitten Pickaxe

Low: too many, but maybe pats dst getting -1 against Jimmy in week 13.

High : watching Ivory in London

Tranent Tigers

Regret getting rid of Freeman the week before he went mental with scoring! Struggling for a high to be honest, there was a week I won by a very small margin on the Monday night but can’t remember which one……

Yep and here’s that god awful transaction in all it’s glory! In case you were interested Freeman ending up as the the no 1 scoring RB in our league, Riddick trailed in as 36.

Tranent Tigers Waiver Wed Sep 16 8:04:59 p.m. GMT 2015

Next we get to a Division filled with regret, TJ Hooker. That’s probably because none of them could muster a winning record…..well at least one of them had an excuse.

Fife Fire

My fantasy low point was losing Le’veon bell two games into his season. And my high point Cam Newton’s 41 point effort in week 15.

San-Fran Gordon 69ers

High: pumping the Earthquakes (knocked them out of playoff contention)

Low: dropping DeAngelo Williams days before Bell went down.

The proof! and yes that is a DST for a the week one and two highest scorer.

SanFran-Gordon 69ers Waiver Wed Oct 28 2:48:57 p.m. GMT 2015

Kelso 187’s

My biggest regret is wasting my 2nd round pick on Randall Cobb , cos he sucks , my fist pump moment was after picking up Doug Baldwin and seeing his performance over the past few games.

and finally we get onto Kirk Division were the executive committee are contained in one small area..

Earlston Earthquakes

My high point would have to be my seven game win streak, made sweeter by the fact that I basically reconstructed the team I had drafted after 4 weeks of abysmal scoring. Those 4 weeks cost me the championship. Low point was the feeling in week 13 that I was basically Scotland. A feeling that every Scotsman and only a Scotsman can relate too, you put yourself in the most difficult situation possible (Bannockburn (editor)), you show your metal and get to a point of hope and achievement, then you blow it on the coasting downhill section (Flodden, Pinkie, Halidon Hill, Solway Moss, Falkirk, Culloden, Costa Rica, Iran….i could go on (editor)) where you should have been getting your breath back ready for the charge to victory. I have made this feeling worse by dissecting the Web site, feel free to look at the alternative ranking, overall w-l rank. It is a tough pill to swallow. (yes the Earthquakes are the best team in the league if we didn’t play head to head or have a divisional playoff setup….aww!)

Tweedbank Pirates

My regret was not trading Dez Bryant when I had the chance. My high point was the diddy playoffs and beating Jimmy (Jaguars) in the regular season.

and finally to me

Earlstonian Bohemians

My high point is cheesy, but it’s seeing everyone “enjoy” playing in this league. From a season standpoint it was actually having RBs who functioned for most of the season and my drunken trade for Gary Barnidge….a masterstroke.

My low points are all personnel related….look at these cracking drops!

Earlstonian Bohemians Waiver Wed Oct 7 1:58:45 p.m. GMT 2015
Earlstonian Bohemians Waiver Wed Oct 28 8:00:05 a.m. GMT 2015
Earlstonian Bohemians Waiver Wed Nov 18 9:00:07 a.m. GMT 2015

 Have a good New Year and remember there is always next year!

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Earlston Super Bowl III

There was no repeat of Joe Namath’s guarantee at the start of this crucial showdown between the Bohemians and the three time finalist Jaguars in Earlston SuperBowl III. Both teams were evenly matched coming into the game despite the Bohemians losing last year’s final star Odell Beckham Jr to suspension in week 15.

During the week both teams tweaked their lineups with the Jaguars focusing on their weakness at RB and the Bohemians at QB. In fact both teams had less than their normal activity on the waiver wire and in free agency although both attempted to block and counter block each others weaknesses.

In fact Tuesdays waiver-wire almost produced one of the most significant pickups pre-final. Despite having waiver priority the Bohemians selected Eagles QB Sam Bradford over the Texans DST and this allowed the Jaguars to pick them up with their juicy match-up against the Tennessee Titans. It was all moot in the end as the Jaguars left the free scoring Cardinals DST and their 33 point haul on the bench.

The game got off to a start at 6pm on Sunday with the 6 Jaguars starters and 5 Bohemians. The Jaguars had their QB (Brady 11.14), RB1 (Abdullah 4.8), WR1 (Decker 10.7), FLEX (Watkins 8.4), TE (Miller 6.9) and DST (Texans 22) in action against the Bohemians RB2 (Miller 12.7), WR1 (M Bryant 1.0), TE (Barnidge 4.7), K (Barth 3.0) and DST (Lions 6.0).

Both teams would have been disappointed with their early showing. The Jaguars got out of a hole with a great game ending between the Jets and Patriots with Brady making 11.14 from a single digit total on the last drive of the 4th quarter and Decker scoring a walk-off TD in overtime. The Jaguars 6pm total of 63.94 wasn’t great but kept them on pace to reach that magical 95 point target.

As for the Bohemians it was a disappointing showing especially as an early 8 point RB margin was squandered with a horrendous showing from Martavis Bryant (1.0) and a below average Gary Barnidge (4.7). Early direct match-ups had the score at Jaguars +20.

The 9pm games brought 3 starters from each team. For the Jaguars RB2 (Michael 2.0), WR2 (Hurns 22.6) and K (Catanzaro 8.0) and for the Bohemians RB1 (Hightower 28.9), FLEX (Robinson 7.1) and WR2 (Lockett 3.3). It was these set of games that nearly turned things around for the Bohemians, but two second half touchdowns (+14.62) by Allen Hurns gave the Jaguars a cushion of almost 30 points with just Teddy Bridgewater to play for the Bohemians.

Unfortunately for the Bohemians, Bridgewater couldn’t repeat his 30pt outing from week 15 and managed a mediocre 11.92 despite a 49 point outing by the Vikings. The Jaguars clinched their second title in a row and were well deserved winners for the third EFFL season.

Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars

96.54-78.62

Earlstonian Bohemians

Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars Earlstonian Bohemians
QB Tom Brady 11.14 QB Teddy Bridgwater 11.92
RB Ameer Abdullah 4.80 RB Tim Hightower 28.90
RB Christine Michael 2.00 RB Lamar Miller 12.70
WR Eric Decker 10.70 WR Martavis Bryant 1.00
WR Allen Hurns 22.60 WR Tyler Lockett 3.30
F-WR Sammy Watkins 8.40 F-RB Denard Robinson 7.10
TE Zach Miller 6.90 TE Gary Barnidge 4.70
K Chandler Cantazaro 9.00 K Connor Barth 3.00
DST Houston Texans 22.00 DST Detroit Lions 6.00

View From the Pit 2015 – the Earlston Bowl

The end of the season, the final bow, a final chance at glory and a first final for our commissioner. Feels like a few of the mighty EFFL 12 may have given up a couple of weeks ago, so this blog may be a bit like a tree falling in a forest. But if you are still reading The big question I’m sure you all have is;have I resisted the temptation to lead with ‘that Europe song’ – yes, let’s find something else…

At least one of these coaches might have to sell their soul to win this weeks final, so this might be more appropriate:

EFFL BoWL Jaguars at Bohemians:

7-6 Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars challenge the 7-6 Earlstonian Bohemians at Bohemian Park.
Jaguars were led in week 15 by a 23.10 point effort from Sammy Watkins,  Jimmy can expect a 20.16 point effort from Tom Brady in week 16

Bohemians were led in week 15 by a 13.60 point effort from Odell Beckham,  In addition,Denard Robinson was not injureed before the start of his week 15 game, and contributed 7.40 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 16 due to an injured foot , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Ally can expect a 16.57 point effort from Odell Beckham in week 16.

In week 11, Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars defeated Earlstonian Bohemians by 10.48 points, so coach Ally is looking for revenge this week. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars hold a 1-2-0 all-time series record against Earlstonian Bohemians.

Bohemians have done enough for ‘home field advantage’  for the final, no idea how that happened as the Jags are way ahead in total points scored. All that means nothing in the final though, the slate is clean. That’s a bit like these rosters – there are very few players that have made it through the season – for Ally it’s just 2nd round Lamar Miller and 5th Round Martavis Bryant that can play, Jimmy has 2nd round Julio Jones, 3rd Round Travis Kelce and 8th Round Tom Brady – 5 players from 30 is a pretty high attrition rate, due to both injuries, suspensions and just not being quite as good as expected. Whatever, the season is won and lost not just on the luck of lack of injuries, but on the waiver wire and the trades. Our two finalists have tried to fill the massive holes punched in these rosters over the season, this last game should find out who is the waiver wizard.

Tom Brady has been consistent over the year, and should get his job done for Jimmy at the Jets on Sunday, Even in a wee quiet path mid season, he was still getting close to 300 yds a game, a and there has been just one game where he’s been limited to a single TD – expect a couple at least this week. Ally has to make a bit of a tough choice between Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater, Bradford has a head start in total completions and yards but Bridgewater is up against the Giants who have allowed the second most points to QBs this year, tough call and it has to be made by Saturday night as Bradford plays in the Saturday night football game.

At RB its a fairly easy choice for Ally, Miller Robinson and Hightower look to be getting the starts, as long as they are fit; Miller and Robinson at both questionable at the time of writing, Rashad Jennings would surely get the go ahead if either are out, as fortunately he’s in the late Sunday game. Jimmy has been scraping the barrel for a fee while now with some disastrous luck at RB. Any of his 4 could get the start as they are pretty close together in rankings and predicted scores; Hill and Powell perhaps? they’ve certainly got the best proven record, but the door is open for someone at the Hawks to prove themselves, could that be another chance for Christine Michael? No one plays tomorrow night so Jimmy has at least till Sunday to work it out and take his gamble – there’s surely at least 2 TDs between the 4 of them? Can the Jag’s coach see through the mist to pick the right ones?

Ally may have to swallow his morals as it looks like Beckham’s suspension has just been lifted (that’s totes unofficial BTW), the bohos coach cannot afford not to play him if that is the case, and it will cause Jimmy a bit of a panic. not to worry too much though Sammy Watkins, Eric Decker and Allen Hurns could all beat OBJ’s score on a good day, WR perhaps the strongest position depth wise for Jimmy. Ally has options in Martavis Bryant and Tyler Locket if he wants to avoid Beckham for any reason, and he has till the lat game Sunday to make those decisions, as only 1 of his wideouts is in the Sunday early game.It was balanced without OBJ, with him it gives Ally a big upper hand here.

 

At TE Jimmy has been riding Travis Kelce all season, and he has just 18 pts worth of TDs to show for that trust. at the Browns he’s got to be odds on for over 50 yds though, with or without a TD he’s as safe a bet as you’ll find at TE. Gary Barnidge on the other hand has 9 TDs to his name and a whole heap of yards. He’s predicted a bigger score than Kelce this week but the stat that interests me here is receptions – he’s actually averaging just about the same receptions as Kelce. The Browns are the easier opponent, so it really comes down to how much Alex Smith can take advantage of a poor pass defense, if he does too well, the Kansas Wideouts will get all the action, and not well enough could be no receptions at all for Kelce, Jimmy is hoping for a ‘goldilocks’ game for the Chiefs then!

Jags Kicker Catanzaro has been mr consistent all year – averaging around 10 pts a game, Jimmy wants a couple of field goals here and will also need Bohemian’s Connor Barth be limited to extra points rather than Field goals. Catanzaro is predicted a bunch more points in any case.

at DST the Texans are more highly ranked than the Cardinals for Jimmy, but ally has gone for the Lions in the waivers. There predicted score is less on MFL, but the vegas odds give them a boost – any points they score against the 49ers will come from sacks and interceptions. A pick six is the dream every week at DST, and there’s no real way to predict that. However Blaine Gabber threw 3 last week for the 49ers against ‘only’ 2 for Zach Mettenberger and the Titans, that gives the Lions DST a slight edge again, but both QBs will be on the practice field this week trying to avoid those turnover stats again.

Where is the trophy going to end up? Jimmy is the champion and has succeeded in keeping his season together this year despite some bad luck with injuries. Ally as commissioner surely wants to bring the trophy to its ‘home’ town for the first time. He’s ridden his luck a bit with a low points for total in the year, but the pit predictor thinks this is a week too far for a rag tag jags team, the trophy will stay in Earlston come superbowl night.

 

that’s me for the year, unless i have time for some number crunching over the holidays, see you all in Feb.

 

Kicker Predictatron- Week 15

Wow talk about breaking the model…….The predictatron burnt out spectacularly last week lets hope you didn’t have any playoff hopes riding on your kickers!

With 12 correct predictions, 5 underestimates and a whopping 15 over estimates it was by far the worst predictatron result this season. Through all the Week 14 games, defenses either dominated their opponents or game scripts left teams chasing TDs and 2 point scores. So let’s try again and hopefully it’ll be third week lucky for Mason Crosby who hasn’t had a correct prediction since Week 8!

The 15 underestimates totaled 50 points with Kansas City, Atlanta, Green Bay, Seattle and Tennesse (6,5,5,5 and 5 points respectively). Although in the predictatrons defense two of those teams were highlighted as underperforming risks. The obvious answer for the predictatron failure is Vegas’s overestimation in the gulf between two teams at different ends of the winning spectrum (except Atlanta who underperformed). This may be a deliberate ploy by Vegas and is something I’ll keep in mind when the model is refined during the offseason.

The 5 overestimates totaled 15 points and the biggest over performers of the week belonged to Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia (4,5 and 4 points respectively). Only Indianapolis were on picked as overperformers.

Last week overperformer alerts were Chicago, Oakland and Indianapolis. Chicago and Oakland were a disasters and fell below their prediction (-2 and -1 respectively). Thankfully Indianapolis exceeded theirs (10, range 6-3).

I highlighted a number of underperformer risks; Green Bay, Jets and Kansas City last week. The Jets performed as expected, but Green Bay and Kansas City both underperformed as alerted (-5 and -6 respectively).

This week our underperformer risks are; Buffalo, Detroit, Green Bay and New Orleans. Our overpeformance picks are; Cleveland,  Houston, Indianapolis and Tennessee.

 

TEAM HIGH LOW
Arizona 17 9
Atlanta 6 3
Baltimore 7 4
Buffalo 11 7
Carolina 17 9
Chicago 10 5
Cincinnati 8 5
Cleveland 2 1
Dallas 6 4
Denver 10 5
Detroit 11 7
Green Bay 9 8
Houston 6 3
Indianapolis 6 3
Jacksonville 9 4
Kansas City 9 4
Miami 7 3
Minnesota 9 8
New England 12 8
New Orleans 17 9
NY Giants 13 6
NY Jets 8 6
Oakland 6 3
Philadelphia 10 7
Pittsburgh 17 9
San Diego 8 6
Seattle 11 10
San Francisco 10 5
St. Louis 11 7
Tampa Bay 6 4
Tennessee 4 3
Washington 7 3

View From the Pit 2015 – Semi Final

We’ve arrived at week fifteen, and down to the final 4. the other 8 have nothing to cheer about till drafty day sometime in September, it’s a lot like the post apocalypse world in this video, or something. Maybe that’s just how it feels when you are out: (not kid friendly)

 

 

Jaguars at Panthers

2016. 7-6 Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars face off against the 10-3 Pilton Panthers at Pilton Park.
Jaguars were led in week 14 by a 18.04 point effort from Tom BradyLeGarrette Blount was not injured before the start of his week 14 game, and contributed 5.30 points, but he’s listed as out in week 15 due to an injured hip , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars can expect a 22.59 point effort from Tom Brady in week 15

Panthers were led in week 14 by a 16.70 point effort from Alshon Jeffery. Pilton Panthers can expect a 15.30 point effort from Ben Roethlisberger in week 15

In week 6, Pilton Panthers defeated Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars by 40.14 points, so coach Jimmy is looking for revenge this week. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars hold a 3-1-0 all-time series record against Pilton Panthers.

Rab and his Panthers had a nice week off last week. King of all he surveys for at least a few days, Rab needs to hold on tightly to that paper crown if he wants to make it gold – last years champs didn’t take the trophy to Germany for nothing.

We’ve got actiona all over the weekend here, from Thursday to Sunday we can expect fireworks.Who will get the early Chritmas present of a place in the final though?

At QB it’s Jags all the way; Brady is up agains the Titan’s who have given away the 5th most points of any defense to QBs this year. Rab’s Panthers have a tough choice, Big Ben is maybe in front, but he’s up against a Broncos team who have let in an average of  just 11.2 pts to QBs. Pip Rivers is the other choice, who’se3 not thrown a TD in 2 games, he could bounce back against the 10th ranked Dolphins, Rab has till 9 to work it out though, as both players go in West coast Sunday games.

Jimmy is going with 3 RBs whilst Rab looks to be sticking to just 2, either of those could swap to WR or vice versa though before kick off . First to have to decide is Rab, as Doug Martin is up against the Rams on Thursday night – he looks a safe bet to make the team and the Rams are giving up plenty of points to RBs ranked at 7th in points allowed. On the other side Jimmy has to make a decision about Ameer Abdullah earlier than he might like – although Abdullah is playing Monday the most likely alternative starters play by 9.25 at the latest, and there may not be a spot left for the Lions RB. Javorious Allen for Rab looks a likely starter, but Jimmy has a tougher decision, and it could be down to luck who he picks here. Jeremy Hill and Bilal Powel are up against some shaky run DST from this year, but may still not be the only choices, Bryce Brown could come out of nowhere as the free agent to RB for the Seahawks with Rawls out for the duration after Marshawn Lynch.

Rab has a distinct advantage at WR, with 3 players predicted and ranked higher than any of the Jags. All of them will be getting their points on the board in the Sunday afternoon games and look likely to score 10 pts each – Rab will want 2 TDs between the 3 of them before bedtime to be happy. Of course, though predicted less yardage and touches, a deep TD pass can easily double a WRs predicted score in a moment. Either of Eric Decker or Allen Hurns is capable of that, but dont be surprised to see Sammy Watkins sneak into the Jags team late on. He’s up against a much more WR friendly Defense than either of the Jags current lineup. the Decision needs to be made before 6 on sunday though.

At TE its almost certainly Olsen for the Panthers, unless something dramatic happens in the next couple of days, his points will be on Rabs card by 9 on sunday night. Jimmy has a decision to make again, nither of his 2 TEs are predicted a stellar score, but both are capable of a TD, Kelce has the yards but miller has the TDs, and hes’ up against a friendly defense – maybe a tough call, but at the moment Jimmy is gambling on those TDs and going with Miller, agains 6.00 Sunday is crunch time.

Jimmy has a decent advantage at Kicker, with a pretty great average for the Cardinals Chandler Catanzaro. Matt Prater is no slouch, but the Lions are out of the playoff hunt. Of course that could mean that they go for more Fieldgoals rather than risking 4th down plays, so its not a dead loss for Rab either.

At DST Jimmy has ended up with the Cardinals, who have a decent match up against the Eagles on Monday night – the Cards are through, whereas the Eagles need a win, so there could be problems for Jimmy if the Eagles sense any weakness. Rab has a bit of a choice, though its a choice you’d wish for. Both his DST options have lowly opponents, ranked 5th and 6th for points allowed to DST. He’s gone for the Steelers just now up agains the Broncos. the alternative is the Texans , away from home at the Colts, both the Colts and Broncos are still in the hunt, so again, possibilities for a few TDs against either of these, but also the chance for some big interceptions if the games end up close.

all together, this will not be over till Tuesday morning – although the MFL predictions Give it to Rab with 1 still to play by midnight Sunday. The Pit is swithering here – I can see this going Jimmy’s way from early doors, but I’m going to plump for the Panthers for the final.

Bohemians at Fog

7-6 Earlstonian Bohemians face off against the 8-5 Fog on the Tyne at New St James Park.
Bohemians were led in week 14 by a 28.60 point effort from Odell BeckhamSpencer Ware was not injured before the start of his week 14 game, and contributed 5.20points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 15 due to an injured ribs , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Earlstonian Bohemians can expect a 16.02 point effort from Odell Beckham in week 15

Fog were led in week 14 by a 18.50 point effort from Brandon Marshall.  Fog on the Tyne can expect a 16.12 point effort from Tyrod Taylor in week 15″We have to stick to our bread-and-butter offense,” Fog on the Tyne coach Stuart said.

In week 5, Fog on the Tyne defeated Earlstonian Bohemians by 32.16 points, so coach Ally is looking for revenge this week. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Earlstonian Bohemians hold a 2-1-0 all-time series record against Fog on the Tyne.

ally had the worst of this clash early in the season, but no one wants this trophy more than our all powerful commissioner. Stuart has the opportunity to burst that bubble and keep the Earlston trophy out of Earlston for the 3rd year.

There’s no action for either team till early Sunday morning but it looks likely that Ally will hold on to some points till MNF again and hope to smash Stuart’s dream and have him crying like Gazza.

Coach ally went all silent for a day or so  last week when Bengals QB Andy Dalton left the game with barely a half point. All was well for the Bohos last week though, winning without a QB against a woeful Pickaxe performance. There’s always a couple of decent QBs on the waivers and the Bohemians have gone for Marcus Mariota, whose been on just about every team in the EFFL so far this year.He’ll need to stretch those throwing muscles to catch the Fogs Tyrod Taylor who is predicted a pretty straightforward game against Washington. Both play in the 6.00 game, and this will give a good indication of where the game is going.

At RB Stuarts fog get Matt Forte, Lesean Mccoy and Frank Gore. Matt Forte has a bit of a challenge at the Vikings ranked 26th in points allowed to Rbs, but for the other 2 it should be a straight 10 pts each – with any TDs being a bonus. They all kick off in the 6.00 games too, and any one of them can have a runaway game. Lamar Miller Denard Robinson and Tim hightower all have great match ups against low ranked running defenses, 4,3 and 8 respectively. Miller is the only one away from home too – so expect a few more points than usual for these guys. They should still be a couple of points behind the Fog triplets, but that could be wiped out in a single TD. Stuart really needs to capitalise at RB, if Ally gets the same or more TDs at RB, this game could well be over. We’ll have to wait till Tuesday morning to find out though – Bohos will have a target on Sunday night in all likelihood, maybe 10-15 pts if things don’t get wild – any more than that puts too much pressure on Tim Hightower Monday night, he’s good enough but untested for that kind of points pressure.

WR Odell Beckham, with all his athletic catches, cant put the Bohos in the driving seat at WR, Brandon Marshall and Jarvis Landry both have better matchups. Lets not get too exited about any of them however, as they all have disastrous match ups for this week – ranked 25 for Beckham right up to 32 for Martavis Bryant. What does that really mean though? Well it ‘should’ limit WR completions, and since most of these four are looking at 5-8 receptions a game, even being one off the average means a loss of 25-35 yds, 3 pts either way. Fog may have the advantage here as Jarvis Landry has seen a few more targets than any of the other 3. Only Beckham has really been tested against similar ranked opponents this year – its not all in the rankings of course,  he’s scored just 7 points in 2 games against Dallas, ranked 28 but a massive 20 points against the 31st Ranked Falcons – make of that what you will. I see the yards going Fogs way – but those Tds could come from anywhere.

At TE Gary Barnidge for the Bohos has the distinct advantage. Stuart’s Tyler Eifert is still in the Concussion protocol and he may need a last minute replacement. Barnidge has been a pretty safe pair of hands after joining the Bohos out of nowhere mid season, Ally timing his high waiver pick to perfection there. Heath Miller and Zach Ertz are both available for Stuart should he need them – both capable of a decent score on the right day but neither with a great match up – Stuart will be lucky to get 5 points at TE for this game, and will need every yard.

 

Kickers Mason Crosby and Justin Tucker are not so far away – MFL puts them neck and neck in points though the rankings give it to Crosby against the Raiders. The Ravens look to be out of playoff contention whilst the Packers have just about clinched it. whether that means anything in terms of field goals, your guess is as good as mine.

Finally DST. The Jets did OK for Ally last week – sitting in the high teems until finally giving up some points late in the third quarter i think. Stuart has a choice of two DST, though neither look likely to score big – perhaps there’s still, a change to be made here. The Jets go in the unusual Saturday game, so Ally will have something to look forward to on Sunday morning. That will give Stuart the unique opportunity to see there score before deciding how much to gamble on either sticking with the Washington or Philly DST or trying to pick someone else up.

So there you have it. Stuart has the advantage at RB, and if the game was just yards, that would surely be enough, but it’s not and TDs will decide this game for sure – I see 3 outfield TDs as likely for both teams, and if either of them has 4 or five by midnight Sunday its done. All in I’m going with the yards – Fog for the win this time.

 

One more week to go – its a little harder to summon the energy when you are out- but I will give it my best shot – whoever makes it.

 

 

 

View From the Pit 2015 – Wildcard playoffs

So we’ve reached the end of the regular season. For six teams that’s pretty much the end of the road, the Diddy playoffs beckon for anyone with the heart for it. Does it count as practice for next season, I don’t know, but pick your Vince Lombardi quote form the many about winning, picking yourself up, quitters etc etc.

For the other six, the knockouts have arrived, the slate is wiped clean and its all to play for – you can moan all you like about how good your record is or who just scraped in, but the rules is the rules, and the six teams that are in are Rab’s Panthers, Stuart’s Fog, Ally’s Bohemians, Shaun’s Fire, Jimmy’s Jaguars and Gav’s Pickaxe. This week Rab and Stuart get a week off, and as promised I’ll only be dealing with the two playoff matches.

It’s going to take more than a little luck to win these matches…

 

Pickaxe at Bohemians

7-6 Nitten Pickaxe play the 7-6  Earlstonian Bohemians at Bohemian Park.

Pickaxe were led in week 13 by a 17.00 point effort fromMatthew Stafford. Nitten Pickaxe can expect a 19.89 point effort from Russell Wilson in week 14.

Bohemians were led in week 13 by a 23.90 point effort from Andy DaltonGary Barnidge was not injured before the start of his week 13 game, and contributed 5.90 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 14 due to an injured ankle , which might severely limit his fantasy production.Earlstonian Bohemians can expect a 18.65 point effort from Andy Dalton in week 14

In week 3, Earlstonian Bohemians defeated Nitten Pickaxe by 0.34 points, so coach Gav is looking for revenge this week. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Nitten Pickaxe hold a 2-3-0 all-time series record against Earlstonian Bohemians.

Coach Gav has a very slim advantage of 60 points over the season – less than 5 a game, so there’s really nothing in it, the matchups will prove key so lets see where we stand.

At QB, it looks like its the Hawks Russel Wilson for Pickaxe with Andy Dalton for the Bohemians, Dalton has been more consistent but the Hawks are on the up in the last couple of weeks, there could be little to choose here. We won’t have too long to wait though – both play in the Sunday 6.00 Game

Pickaxe have the same three running backs consistently ranked in the top ten but failing to deliver, surely one week the promise will come good? Bad timing for wildcard week though as all three of them are up against teams ranked 25th or worse in points allowed to RBs. There should still be a good few points here, but probably not the 20 each that coach Gav wants, On the other side of the field we’ve just heard that Mark ingram could be out for the rest of the season, that puts a big dent in Ally’s RB squad and he’ll have to look further down the depth chart, Spencer Ware having the best predicted score – but only 6. All the Pickaxe RBs are in the Sunday early Game , but Ally’s Lamar Miller doesn’t go till MNF so could be a sleepless night if the scores are close enough

At WR, Pickaxe have struggled. Having Desean Jackson back to full strength has eased that a little ,but Pickaxe are still looking at just 20 pts a game between the Jackson and round 2 pick Demaryius Thomas, who has not lived up to his star billing. On the flipside, Odell Beckham is still flying, and making those astounding catches look pretty routine – the jury seems to be out on whether its superhuman, or should just be expected of a pro wideout – but that doesn’t matter here- one handed, 2 handed  or juggled into the endzone, there are no bonus points for style (next year?). Tyler Locket could be an interesting waiver pickup here, with the Seahawks passing game finally coming good – of course any points to Lockett will be mitigated to an extent by pickaxe QB Wilson, but if all the hawks plays go to Lockett…. Mind you, Ally will have a job dropping Martavis Bryant or Marvin Jones anyway – so it could be academic.

Gary Barnidge maybe peaked earlier on in the season, giving Bohemians a much needed boost, but perhaps he’s due a big game again. Pickaxe have plumped for a waiver wire pickup in Austin Sefarian- Jenkins, he’s been out most of the season, but back maye to full strength now. Surely there’s just one TD between the 2 of these players- and not a lot of ways to predict who it would be, both of them play early sunday though, so we’ll know soon enough.

Coach Ally has been pretty sly with his Kicker and DST choices for the wildcard week, both Mason Crosby and the Jets are up against their respective number 1 opponent in terms of points given away, though  with a kicker that’s a pretty meaningless stat. There’s surely some positive points for the Patriots DST this week on the other side, last weeks -1 effort was a shocker to say the least. Steven Haushka has benefited from the Seahawks resurgence in the last couple of weeks, but he’s also worryingly missed 3 extra points in the last 2 games, there could be something wrong there?

So Odell Beckham is likely to be on his own putting the last points on the board in this game. The loss of Ingram gives this matchup another twist, but Beckham Junior has been averaging 14 points and is capable of 30. he’s up against the Dolphins who rank 9th in points allowed. He’s already played the 8th and 10th ranked opposition, scoring 16 and 30 respectively – so lets split that ans say that 23 pts is not unreasonable. On the Pickaxe side, the player with the most to contribute here is Russel Wilson. the last 2 weeks have seen 30 pts plus, he maybe can’t expect 3 of those games on the bounce, but equally a 25 pt game is very possible.

Bedtime on Monday night could be sleepless for both these coaches, but Ally has to be comfortable with 25 or less difference with 2 pretty big scoring players left to go. and if Miami take the early lead, Ally has to think he’s home and dry. No number is going to satisfy Gav with two potential 30 pointers to play, but perhaps 40 points will seem like a bridge too far?

Who will be in the semis next week? Well its a tough one to call, but we’ll have to go with the Pickaxe this year.

 

Jaguars at Fire

7-6 Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars play the 6-7 Fife Fire at Balbirnie Stadium.
Jaguars were led in week 13 by a 31.78 point effort from Tom BradyC.J. Anderson was not injured before the start of his week 13 game, and contributed 5.40 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 14 due to an injured ankle , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars can expect a 18.78 point effort from Tom Brady in week 14.

Fire were led in week 13 by a 36.14 point effort from Cam NewtonLarry Fitzgerald was not injured before the start of his week 13 game, and contributed 5.50 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 14 due to an injured ankle , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Fife Fire can expect a 18.99 point effort from Cam Newton in week 14,

In week 4, Fife Fire defeated Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars by 26.92 points, so coach Jimmy is looking for revenge this week.

 

Jaguars have a good 87 points over the Fire for the year – a little over 6 and a half points a game. Not a lot of course, but if you think about that as a touchdown, then it starts to seem like a ‘cushion’ of sorts.

Fire have maybe snuck in the back door of the playoffs coming out of the weaker TJ Hooker Division, But Jimmy’s higher average score doesn’t tell the the full story, Jaguars perhaps have the biggest spread of scores in the league, and last week was the first time in a month that the Jags have got their ton; though that’s the same for Shaun’s Fire, they have outscored Jags by nearly 5 points a game over the last 5 weeks.Rookie Shaun is up against it playing last year’s champ, can the Fire rise to the challenge?

It says something for Cam Newton’s status as an all start QB that he’s up against the 31st ranked Falcons, but is still ranked the #1 QB this week. Seven rushing TDs in the year is nothing to sniff at. On the other side Tom Brady is also well liked for the matchup against the Texans and both these QBs are likely to exceed their lowly 18 pt projections. Cam’s rushing ability ability gives him the edge here as the Falcons are ranked just #5 against the run, which can only boost his chances of another 6 pointer.

Neither team has stellar RBs, in fact Jeremy Hill at #20 is the highest ranked, LeGarrette Blount at #23 completes the leading pair for Jaguars. Fire have Giovani Bernard and Alfred Morris as their two starters. Of course, any one of these 4 could have a breakout game, if that happens this match up could be over, with all of these guys predicted to not score a TD between them – even 1 score could start to put this game out of reach. None of the likely RB starters are up against teams that give anywhere near the most points to RBs though, but there’s always a sneaky receiving play that could throw our predictions right out of the window.

WR is where the action is for both of these teams, with much more respectable rankings and projections. Jaguars have a choice and may sub in Watkins and Decker who have the highest predictions this week, leaving a choice of Allen Hurns of Vincent Jackson for Flex. Sammy watkins lines up against the Eagles on Sunday who have given away the most points to WR of any NFL team this year. The Fire seem a bit more sure with Mike Evans, Larry Fitzgerald and T.Y. Hilton. Fitzgerald is listed as probable, despite the early start on Thursday night football against the Vikings

At TE Travis Kelce will; surely outscore either of Shaun’s pair, at least in terms of yardage? TE TDs are son hard to predict through – and there’s been quite a few single reception TD games within then EFFL  this season if O remember rightly  so we can’t right the Fire’s TE chances off completely. MFL has the scores much closer together at around 7 for Kelce and just over 6 for either of the Fire choices. Richard Rogers has been the most consistent at getting TD looks, with 6 TDs spread reasonably over the season.

Jimmy will hope to get points on the board early doors, with both kicker and DST from Arizona who go on Thursday night football against the Vikings. there’s surely a few points to be had between them, the vikings pretty middle of the park in terms of points given up to both these positions.Robbie gould goes Sunday Early and the Broncos DST a little later for Fire. The Bronos are the ones to watch here- as one of the highest ranked DST this week. the Broncos filled their page last week, with Interceptions, fumbles a TD and Sacks, whilst allowing just 3 points. Its hard to argue against a team with that level of skill and probably confidence going into a game against the Raiders.

Where does that leave us ? Well it’s Tom Brady and potentially LeGarrette Blount finishing the scoring in the Sunday late game for Jimmy, depending if Blount is playing, Shaun is going to want at least 25 and possibly 40 points to sleep easy. Meanwhile jimmy will think the job is done with less than 15/20 points to get.

Jimmy has the advantage is season long stats, and the experience of taking home the trophy,  but the Pit is calling this one for Rookie Shaun’s Fire

 

 

 

View From the Pit 2015 – week 13

This is it then, the final games of the regular season – I kind of thought that the playoff spots would be booked by now, but it seems there are still plety of teams in the hunt. Rab can sit back and relax as the rest of us slug it out, even for the second seeded place and a week off, then again who wants a week off?

 

thanks to Ally’s useful playoff ready reckoner we have a good rundown of what needs to happen for each team to get a spot. In fact only Pirates are eliminated, though Tigers have just a 1% chance of a wildcared spot – in each case I’ve summarised this in the brackets after each match up team – percentage chance of a division spot /percentage chance of a wildcard spot. Of course these percentages are just based on 50-50 games, not on league average scores or anything like that.

 

Lets get going with the last of the complete 6 rundowns, I’m knackered after 13 weeks of writing – it will only be the teams in contention from here on in

We’ll get going with the only 50 50 game for a guaranteed playoff spot – Uhura will go to the wire, and both these teams have fate in their own hands

Fog (50/33) at Avengers (50/21)

7-5 Fog on the Tyne face off against the 7-5 Kelsae Avengers at Samuel Sawyer Memorial Park.
Fog  were led in week 12 by a 25.10 point effort from Brandon Marshall. Fog on the Tyne can expect a 15.52 point effort from Tyrod Taylor in week 13,

Avengers were led in week 12 by a 27.30 point effort from Calvin Johnson. B Kelsae Avengers can expect a 17.40 point effort from Alex Smith in week 13,

In week 2, Fog on the Tyne defeated Kelsae Avengers by 20.14 points, so coach Stuart is looking for revenge this week.

Talk about timing, Avenger’s monster score last week puts them in serious contention for a divisional win despite the lowest pts for total. Fog sit a bit more mid table in the points for league, and look to use that to their advantage in this match up. Those monster scores just cannot be predicted, and of course though its satisfying to get 130 plus, when you win by 50 points you maybe wish some of those TDs could have happened in weeks when your matches were closer. Anyway – none of those stats will matter come Sunday in the Stuarts Showdown, Uhura division is ripe for the taking by either of these teams. Eddie Lacy and Megatron  are in action for the Avengers on Thursday. Johnson has been quiet most of the season with the odd spike, however last week was a monster game for him and QB Matt Stafford, and the Lions will be looking to get a bit back on track – their season isn’t over yet, but would take a massive knock with a defeat this week. The best hope for Avengers Stuart is that Green Bay take the lead and force the Lions to play throw to catch up, that gives both his Thursday players the best chances to go big. Of course, Fog Stuart will be wanting the opposite, but his team is more than capable of takingthings into their own hands and not relying on a low scoring opponent. LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte will surely get 2 TDs between them? Fogs wideout team dont look too shabby this week either. The massive bulk of Fogs total comes before 9 on Sunday night – with only Amari Cooper and the Washington DST to come after, the early players could be enough, but Avengers look to score nearly half their points in the Sunday later games, so there may well be no sleeps for this pair till beyond midnight at the earliest. As for the prediction, the Pit is going with the season long record and giving this one to the Fog.

 

 

Next up is a game that both must win to guarnatee a place, but 69ers rely on other results

69ers (12/-3?) at Earthquakes (75/18)

5-7 SanFran-Gordon 69ers face off against the 7-5 Earlston Earthquakes at The Cauldie.

69ers were led in week 12 by a 18.10 point effort from A.J. GreenRob Gronkowski was not injured before the start of his week 12 game, and contributed 14.80 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 13 due to an injured knee , which might severely limit his fantasy production. SanFran-Gordon 69ers can expect a 20.98 point effort from Aaron Rodgers in week 13.

Earthquakes were led in week 12 by a 17.44 point effort from Carson Palmer. Earlston Earthquakes can expect a 16.63 point effort from Carson Palmer in week 13.

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2015. In the 2-year history of this rivalry, SanFran-Gordon 69ers hold a 0-2-0 all-time series record against Earlston Earthquakes.

Quakes are just about there, with a 3/4 chance of winning the division plus a decent chance of a playoff berth if not – however 69ers must win their division if they are to have any chance. Aaron Rogers will likely get things started for Richie on Thursday night and from last weeks action he looks like an unstoppable trooper, battling his way through miserable weather and pain to a reasonable 14 pts. This week should be easier assuming he’s not taken too big a hit with that elbow to the face. Along with Rogers the wideouts look to do the business for the 69ers all 3 will have their points well on the board by bedtime. The wheels finally came off the Earthquake bus last week, with a well timed (from everyone else’s point of view) defeat by the Bohos. Cozy will look to get back into winning ways and he has the better eanked players across the rest of the board – RB, TE DST and K. Its just TE Reed who waits till Monday night – Cozy may already have won by then, and will surely want that as no one wants to rely on a TE to win even if you only need a couple.

This could be close, but Richie would have to be pretty lucky, with the better rankings at the less unpredictable psitions, I’m giving Cozy the win, and Kirk Division.

 

Jaguars (0/36) at Pickaxe (0/83)

6-6 Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars play the 7-5 Nitten Pickaxe at New Victoria Park.
Jaguars were led in week 12 by a 13.90 point effort from Brian HoyerJeremy Hill was not injured before the start of his week 12 game, and contributed 10.00 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 13 due to an injured ankle , which might severely limit his fantasy production.  Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars can expect a 19.29 point effort from Tom Brady in week 13,

Pickaxe were led in week 12 by a 34.78 point effort from Matthew StaffordJimmy Graham was not injured before the start of his week 12 game, and contributed 7.50 points, but he’s now on the injured reserve, which will prevent him from contributing at all this week. Nitten Pickaxe can expect a 17.59 point effort from Matthew Stafford in week 13,

This is the first game between these two franchises in 2015. In the 2-year history of this rivalry, Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars hold a 2-2-0 all-time series record against Nitten Pickaxe.

Neither team can win their divisions, the rest of the league may be happy that our two former champions are not leading the pack – but either one of these coaches could still keep the trophy away from the Borders for a 3rd year. This game looks pretty even, Jimmy has the advantage at WR and QB, but Gav leads in RBs there’s really nothing to choose between the kickers and DST. thursday night see’s last weeks star QB Matt Stafford in action. Stafford looked like a great choice last week witha  good 30 pts on thanksgiving, but Gav could have had another half point from  Russel Wilson, who had his best game of the season, that could give pickaxe a dilemma, but at this stage it’s looking like Stafford for the early start. Jimmy waits till Sunday for his Jaguars to time their pounce, and all the action should be before midnight. Jimmy will need some TDs from his Wideout triumvirate if he’s to have any chance here – or one of them to have a monster game. That’s reasonable odds.The problem for Gav here could be TE, jimmy Graham suffered a possible career ending injury last week and although there are certainly TE’s available who will score 12 points, predicting who that will be is a little more difficult.

This one should be close, but it wont be, one of these teams will get those all important TDs, the other will just come up short – who will it be?

This week the Pit is going with the Pickaxe to see off the last ditch pounce from last years champions and take the first wildcard spot.

 

 

187s (37/0) at Fire (0/50)

5-7 Kelso 187’s play the 5-7 Fife Fire at Balbirnie Stadium.

187’s were led in week 12 by a 14.84 point effort from Eli Manning.  Kelso 187’s can expect a 16.38 point effort from Eli Manning in week 13.

Fire were led in week 12 by a 21.50 point effort from T.Y. HiltonAndre Ellington was not injured before the start of his week 12 game, and contributed 4.60 points, but he’s listed as questionable in week 13 due to an injured toe , which might severely limit his fantasy production. Fife Fire can expect a 23.24 point effort from Cam Newton in week 13.

In week 1, Fife Fire defeated Kelso 187’s by 0.88 points, so coach Euan is looking for revenge this week. Its the Tj Hooker hometown hoedown part 2. Week one looked to be going all Euan’s way but Shaun pipped him by the tinyest margin. At that stage we thought that Leveon Bell would define the Fire season, and in a way he has, by being absent for most of it! Caoch Shaun is on a 5 game losing streak and must be desperate for a win, and beating the 187s would eb doubly sweet. Euan himself must also be wondering where it all went so wrong, as the 187s have struggled along this season too. Cam Newton is number 1 ranked QB this week for fire though and though he’ll have to wait for Sunday 9.30 to see it, that should eb some solid numbers for the Fire, Euan has to wait even longer for their WR star Antonio Brown who is also ranked #1 this week – though in the much more unsteady WR position. Elsewhere across the match ups theres little to choose between the brothers, Darren McFadden perhaps giving 187s a wee bit more power play opportunities to seal the deal. Again, a TD here or there could seal it, and yardage might be similar. Newton running in TDs instead of passing them and staying interception free as he has done foir 2 weeks would be enough for Fire, but the Pit is going to go with the averages and call this one for the 187s.

 

Bohemians (25/14) at Pirates (0/0)

6-6 Earlstonian Bohemians face off against the 3-9 Tweedbank Pirates at Gun Knowe Stadium.
Bohemians were led in week 12 by a 20.20 point effort from Odell Beckham. Earlstonian Bohemians can expect a 18.67 point effort from Spencer Ware in week 13.

Pirates were led in week 12 by a 22.46 point effort from Blake Bortles. Tweedbank Pirates can expect a 18.05 point effort from DeAngelo Williams in week 13

In week 2, Tweedbank Pirates defeated Earlstonian Bohemians by 28.26 points, so coach Ally is looking for revenge this week. In the 3-year history of this rivalry, Earlstonian Bohemians hold a 3-4-0 all-time series record against Tweedbank Pirates.

Its an open goal for coach Ally, as Pauls Pirates have no chance to qualify – however,maybe they want to salvage a bit of pride, so this is by no means over. In fact, Ally has his work cut out here, Pirates have the lead in the rankings in a load of positions, this game could come down to a player on neither team, if Charcandrick West can play then Ally’s Spencer Ware may lose a shed load of points, if he’s out though that will be a huge boho bonus. Odell Beckham and Martavis Brynat will be carrying a big burden to get Ally through, no matter which RBs can go, but they seem to be up to that challenge

 

DeAngelo Williams is surely the Pirate captain, but so far this season a lot of pirates have been one eyed, one legged and into a bit too much grog perhaps. Its too late for Paul’s playoff hopes, but for the sake of the rest of the divisions, he needs to be the last man on the burning deck and steer this Pirate Galleon safely into harbour. Avast! former cabin boy David Johnson gets promoted to first mate as he steps into some RB1 shoes for the first time this season, could he do the job that West and Rawls have done elsewhere in the fleet? We’ll find out soon enough with both teasm in action on Thursday night. The pit prediction is for the Pirates to be battered and bruised but to go out with a big bang and sink the Bohos

Panthers (100) at Tigers (0/1)

9-3 Pilton Panthers face off against the 5-7 Tranent Tigers at Polson Park.
Panthers were led in week 12 by a 22.04 point effort from Ben Roethlisberger. Pilton Panthers can expect a 19.86 point effort from Ben Roethlisberger in week 13,

Tigers were led in week 12 by a 30.70 point effort fromAdrian Peterson.  Tranent Tigers can expect a 14.63 point effort from Adrian Peterson in week 13.

In week 3, Pilton Panthers defeated Tranent Tigers by 20.52 points. In the 2-year history of this rivalry, Pilton Panthers hold a 3-0-0 all-time series record against Tranent Tigers.

 

Rab’s Panthers are through, whilst Nicky’s Tigers have looked a pretty sorry state all season long, Adrian Peterson and Julio Jones have just not been enough to keep the Tigers ticking over. Panthers may have their feet off the gas, but will that mean that Nicky can salvage a bit of prise and finally get a win back on Rab after 2 years? the Packers DST will get the Panthers going, they are not predicted great things this week, but a good 10 pts would set the tone for Rab. Sunday early games are where this match up is decided, with the bulk of both teams points coming there. Jonathan Stewart and Doug Martin have the chance to put this game to bed before midnight for Rab, and if either of them gets a 2 td game it could be goodnight Vienna for the Tigers. TE’s could decide this game though – the rankings and predictions say very little about the reality here -either one of these getting a TD could swing it again. there’s possibliities all over tha park, but in the end, if it came down to pure yardage, the Panthers have enough of an advantage to make those Tigers cower. The Pit has to go with the numbers, its a win and an end to a great season for the Panthers.

That is your lot for the regular season. and will be the last preview for 6 of you, so for you guys, see you next year. For the big boys we’ll try to go a bit more in depth for the playoff games.

Kicker Predictatron- Week 14

It was a wild week 13 in the NFL with shock results, lots of touchdowns and some really poor kicking?!? That weirdness was reflected in a set of disappointing Predictatron results. It managed a paltry 9 correct predictions, had 10 underestimates (+40 points) and a whopping 13 overestimates (+43). Although the raw results weren’t great the majority of our overestimates (9) were only in the region of a missed point or field goal (1-3 points) so it shouldn’t have lost you too many games 😉

The worst overestimates; Oakland, Green Bay, New England and Miami (4, 5, 6 and 7 points respectively) all belonged to high powered offenses that had bad weeks and we can take some solace in the fact that Green Bay and Miami were highlighted as potential under-performers.

The biggest over performers of the week belonged to Atlanta and Dallas (8 and 10 points respectively). Neither made our overperformers alert, but the two teams we did highlight Baltimore and Indianapolis, Baltimore exceed their prediction by 1 points whereas the Colts just made their minimum output.

This week the Predictatron issues an underperformer alert Green Bay, Jets and Kansas City for and thinks that Chicago, Indianapolis and Oakland have the best chance of over performing their predicted output.

TEAM HIGH LOW
Arizona 12 9
Atlanta 10 5
Baltimore 10 5
Buffalo 7 6
Carolina 10 7
Chicago 8 5
Cincinnati 9 4
Cleveland 10 7
Dallas 9 5
Denver 17 9
Detroit 8 6
Green Bay 17 9
Houston 8 6
Indianapolis 6 3
Jacksonville 11 7
Kansas City 15 10
Miami 7 6
Minnesota 9 5
New England 10 8
New Orleans 10 7
NY Giants 7 6
NY Jets 17 9
Oakland 4 2
Philadelphia 7 6
Pittsburgh 10 7
San Diego 7 4
Seattle 11 10
San Francisco 8 6
St. Louis 10 7
Tampa Bay 17 9
Tennessee 9 5
Washington 13 6

EFFL playoff odds- Week12

64 possible result permutations were calculated.
The possibility of tie-games is NOT considered in the calculations.

NOTE: There were ‘weak division/no winner’ scenarios that may have impacted wildcard calculations.

6 is the minimum number of wins needed for any chance at a Wildcard spot.
Playoff Computer predicts that 7 wins are most realistically necessary for a Wildcard spot.

Earlstonian Bohemians (6-6-0)…. Fate uncertain. Division odds: 25%. Wildcard odds: 14%.
Kelsae Avengers (7-5-0)…. Fate uncertain. Division odds: 50%. Wildcard odds: 21%.
Kelso 187’s (5-7-0)…. ELIMINATED from wildcard race but still in division race. Division odds: 37%.
Tranent Tigers (5-7-0)…. ELIMINATED from division race but still in wildcard race. Wildcard odds: 1%.
Tweedbank Pirates(3-9-0)…. ELIMINATED from playoff contention.
Pilton Panthers (9-3-0)…. CLINCHED a DIVISION spot!
Earlston Earthquakes (7-5-0)…. Fate uncertain. Division odds: 75%. Wildcard odds: 18%.
Nitten Pickaxe (7-5-0)…. ELIMINATED from division race but still in wildcard race. Wildcard odds: 83%.
Fife Fire (5-7-0)….. ELIMINATED from wildcard race but still in division race. Division odds: 50%.
SanFran-Gordon 69ers (5-7-0)…. Fate uncertain. Division odds: 12%. Wildcard odds: -3%.
Fog on the Tyne(7-5-0)…. Fate uncertain. Division odds: 50%. Wildcard odds: 33%.
Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars (6-6-0)…. ELIMINATED from division race but still in wildcard race. Wildcard odds: 36%.

Upcoming round’s DIVISION paths-to-clinch (if any)…

Earlstonian Bohemians CLINCH a Division spot IF:
SanFran-Gordon 69ers BEAT Earlston Earthquakes -AND- Earlstonian Bohemians BEAT Tweedbank Pirates

Kelsae Avengers CLINCH a Division spot IF:
Kelsae Avengers BEAT Fog on the Tyne

Kelso 187’s CLINCH a Division spot IF:
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT Fife Fire

Earlston Earthquakes CLINCH a Division spot IF:
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers; OR
Tweedbank PiratesBEAT Earlstonian Bohemians

Fife Fire CLINCH a Division spot IF:
Fife Fire BEAT Kelso 187’s

Fog on the Tyne CLINCH a Division spot IF:
Fog on the Tyne BEAT Kelsae Avengers

Upcoming round’s PLAYOFF paths-to-clinch (if any)…

Earlstonian Bohemians CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
SanFran-Gordon 69ers BEAT Earlston Earthquakes -AND- Earlstonian BEAT Tweedbank Pirates

Kelsae Avengers CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Kelsae Avengers BEAT Fog on the Tyne; OR
Tweedbank Pirates BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians -AND- Nitten Pickaxe BEAT Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars; OR
SanFran-Gordon 69ers BEAT Earlston Earthquakes -AND- Tweedbank Pirates BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT Fife Fire; OR
SanFran-Gordon 69ers BEAT Earlston Earthquakes -AND- Nitten Pickaxe BEAT Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT Fife Fire

Kelso 187’s CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT Fife Fire

Earlston Earthquakes CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Earlston Earthquakes BEAT SanFran-Gordon 69ers; OR
Tweedbank BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians; OR
Nitten Pickaxe BEAT Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT Fife Fire; OR
Nitten Pickaxe BEAT Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars -AND- Fog on the Tyne BEAT Kelsae Avengers; OR
Kelso 187’s BEAT Fife Fire -AND- Fog on the Tyne BEAT Kelsae Avengers

Nitten Pickaxe CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Nitten Pickaxe BEAT Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars; OR
Tweedbank Pirates BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians -AND- Fog on the Tyne BEAT Kelsae Avengers; OR
SanFran-Gordon 69ers BEAT Earlston Earthquakes -AND- Tweedbank Pirates BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT Fife Fire; OR
SanFran-Gordon 69ers BEAT Earlston Earthquakes -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT Fife Fire -AND- Fog on the BEAT Kelsae Avengers

Fife Fire CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Fife Fire BEAT Kelso 187’s

Fog on the Tyne CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Fog on the Tyne BEAT Kelsae Avengers; OR
Tweedbank Pirates BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians -AND- Nitten Pickaxe BEAT Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars; OR
SanFran-Gordon 69ers BEAT Earlston Earthquakes -AND- Tweedbank Pirates BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT Fife Fire; OR
SanFran-Gordon 69ers BEAT Earlston Earthquakes -AND- Nitten Pickaxe BEAT Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT Fife Fire

Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars CLINCH a Playoff spot IF:
Tweedbank Pirates BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians -AND- Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars BEAT Nitten Pickaxe -AND- Fog on the Tyne BEAT Kelsae Avengers; OR
SanFran-Gordon 69ers BEAT Earlston Earthquakes -AND- Tweedbank Pirates BEAT Earlstonian Bohemians -AND- Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars BEAT Nitten Pickaxe -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT Fife Fire; OR
SanFran-Gordon 69ers BEAT Earlston Earthquakes -AND- Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars BEAT Nitten Pickaxe -AND- Kelso 187’s BEAT Fife Fire -AND- Fog on the Tyne BEAT Kelsae Avengers