From the deep pit – Random stats blog

A rainy bank holiday with the kids means a few spare minutes whilst they watch some DVDs

The spread of scores in week 1 and 2 is pretty big – from 60ish way up to close to 130. I thought I’d take a look at the averages for last year in some different ways – first up this week its average yards and average tds:

In 2014 regular EFFL Season:

Average Passing Yds/game 272.3yds (10.9 pts)
Average combined passing rushing yards were 428.2yds (42.8 pts)

Average passing TDs/game 2.03 (8 pts)
Average combined passing rushing TDs/game 2.81 (16.9 pts)

so that’s a combined total of 53.7 points for yards and 24.9 for TDs

So what?
well firstly just for the hell of it – with less than 200 yds so far this week i just wanted to see how far down i really was, but more importantly to bang on yet again how big a deal TDs are to your score.

Of course – you can to an extent predict how many likely TD opportunities your players might get – are they red zone targets for example – but its still quite random and varied from 1 to 9 last year – a big point spread. its way more unpredictable than the yards gained – which remains relatively closely aligned.

Even in the 187s week 5 game last year – where they had just 1 receiving TD, they had 458 rush/rec yards and 235 passing yards (well within the average spread)

Conversely in the week 4 game, the 187s scored 3 of each type of TD but they still only had 447 rush/rec and 248 pass yds – very similar to a week later in yds but a huge 42 points more in terms of TDs scored.

So – what does this mean for you? if you are flying high after week 2, there will inevitably be a fall, but maybe more importantly if you are down on your luck it might not be time to dump those players just yet – as they have to get their chances sometime.


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