After looking at Gav’s post on draft value I thought i’d build on his work and add a couple of twists to try and iron-out the problems he identified.
Gav’s calculation used a compound score that based value on a sliding scale of variables assigning arbitrary value based on draft position. This created a scoring system that favoured high scorers in lower rounds and positions where a high average score is the norm.
As Gav noted this leaves us with a QB and K heavy value chart and although it would be correct to say that these positions are valuable perhaps the more important question for us is;
“Am i getting value for my selection in the round I selected the player?”
In developing this calculation I’ve also made a number of assumptions. The first is I’ve assumed that the perfect draft would have seen a processional selection process of the highest to lowest scores (i.e. the best RB should have been the first RB taken and so on). The second assumption I’ve made is the selections we made as a group within each round defined the value a position had within a given round at that given point of the draft (early picks not scoring highly will be heavily penalised). My third and final assumption was the performance of a player away from his original team was not taken into account for the players overall performance).
I haven’t posted all of the calculation here, but what it showed me was that if we compared the top 180 fantasy points scorers for the season with the 180 players we selected in the draft only 25 players were selected at a position where their output exceed expectation. Every other player under-performed.
Lets repeat that: Only 25 players out of the 180 we selected exceed the score they were expected to reach!
This sounds horrendous and although we have take into account the frightening attrition of players in the NFL it does show the difficulty of “getting it right” in the draft. Considering most of our GMs draft from draft value sheets available from media outlets in print and from the web it reflects poorly on the consensus of “expert knowledge” or does it?
Although our bottom 20 picks are littered with players injured during the season there are also a number who perhaps spent far too long on a roster when they could have been moved on for value at another position. Players such as Ryan Tannehill, Tony Romo, Cardinals DST and LeSean McCoy are the glaring examples.
On the opposite side of the coin just outside the bottom 20 there are a number of notable casualties of impatience. Players such as Torrey Smith (21st ranked WR) who scored only 15 of his 96 points, Steven Jackson (20th ranked RB) who scored 0 of his 100 points, Jordan Matthews (19th ranked WR) who scored 0 of his 110 points, and Jeremy Hill (14th ranked RB) who scored 10 of his 114 for their original teams.
So, without giving anything away for the awards night in February here are the Top and Bottom 20 draft picks for this season (excluding the top/bottom 3):
Draft Highlights (Top 20)
|9||2||WR||Emmanuel Sanders||Kelso 187s||147.40||86.30||61.10|
|5||6||QB||Andrew Luck||Earlstonian Bohemians||297.74||243.32||54.42|
|5||1||WR||T.Y. Hilton||Tranent International Tornadoes||146.50||112.00||34.50|
|1||11||RB||Marshawn Lynch||Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars||197.30||164.20||33.10|
|3||12||RB||Andre Ellington||Nitten Pickaxe||125.50||96.50||29.00|
|2||11||WR||Antonio Brown||Kelso 187s||174.90||146.50||28.40|
|2||7||TE||Rob Gronkowski||Earlstonian Bohemians||145.00||119.00||26.00|
|14||6||RB||Ahmad Bradshaw||Oakbank Oddities||79.90||55.40||24.50|
|3||4||RB||Alfred Morris||Dodgy Touchdown||143.80||120.30||23.50|
|2||9||WR||Jordy Nelson||Dodgy Touchdown||171.90||151.90||20.00|
|11||7||WR||DeAndre Hopkins||Oakbank Oddities||91.00||78.60||12.40|
|1||9||RB||Arian Foster||Earlston Earthquakes||177.60||165.60||12.00|
|3||3||WR||Randall Cobb||Pilton Panthers||153.90||145.00||8.90|
|10||9||PK||Justin Tucker||Dodgy Touchdown||116.00||110.00||6.00|
|10||6||PK||Stephen Gostkowski||Oakbank Oddities||122.00||118.00||4.00|
|7||12||TE||Greg Olsen||Nitten Pickaxe||98.70||95.40||3.30|
|11||3||PK||Matt Bryant||Pilton Panthers||107.00||104.00||3.00|
Draft Lowlights (Bottom 20)
|13||2||PK||Sebastian Janikowski||Kelso 187s||0.00||102.00||-102.00|
|2||10||RB||Doug Martin||Pilton Panthers||28.00||131.50||-103.50|
|4||8||WR||Victor Cruz||Mercy Flush||23.00||128.40||-105.40|
|10||5||PK||Matt Prater||SanFran Gordon 69ers||10.00||120.00||-110.00|
|13||10||QB||Ryan Tannehill||Fog on the Tyne||18.66||134.78||-116.12|
|6||10||QB||Nick Foles||Pilton Panthers||104.90||225.02||-120.12|
|3||1||RB||Ryan Mathews||Tranent International Tornadoes||5.70||126.00||-120.30|
|1||1||RB||LeSean McCoy||Tranent International Tornadoes||93.90||215.00||-121.10|
|11||6||QB||Tony Romo||Mercy Flush||65.28||187.12||-121.84|
|7||1||DST||Seattle||Tranent International Tornadoes||14.00||153.00||-139.00|
|6||1||QB||Matthew Stafford||Nitten Pickaxe||98.18||242.24||-144.06|
|1||6||RB||Montee Ball||Earlstonian Bohemians||27.40||172.70||-145.30|
|12||10||QB||Andy Dalton||Pilton Panthers||24.46||171.06||-146.60|
|12||11||QB||Alex Smith||Kelso 187s||22.72||169.64||-146.92|
|13||7||QB||Johnny Manziel||Oakbank Oddities||0.00||164.02||-164.02|
|12||12||QB||Blake Bortles||Tranent International Tornadoes||0.00||164.46||-164.46|
Now the tables above are great and give us some idea of our drafting ability, but what I wanted to do with this analysis is look a little bit deeper and see if we can spot some trends in the draft. Was there a secret formula that would have led to success or do we just have to buy lottery ticket and hope for the best.
Over the off-season I’ll be writing a series of articles commenting on our strategy for each position. Next I’ll begin with the big hitters: Running Backs.