Drafting for Success?

After looking at Gav’s post on draft value I thought i’d build on his work and add a couple of twists to try and iron-out the problems he identified.

Gav’s calculation used a compound score that based value on a sliding scale of variables assigning arbitrary value based on draft position. This created a scoring system that favoured high scorers in lower rounds and positions where a high average score is the norm.

As Gav noted this leaves us with a QB and K heavy value chart and although it would be correct to say that these positions are valuable perhaps the more important question for us is;

“Am i getting value for my selection in the round I selected the player?”

In developing this calculation I’ve also made a number of assumptions. The first is I’ve assumed that the perfect draft would have seen a processional selection process of the highest to lowest scores (i.e. the best RB should have been the first RB taken and so on). The second assumption I’ve made is the selections we made as a group within each round defined the value a position had within a given round at that given point of the draft (early picks not scoring highly will be heavily penalised). My third and final assumption was the performance of a player away from his original team was not taken into account for the players overall performance).

I haven’t posted all of the calculation here, but what it showed me was that if we compared the top 180 fantasy points scorers for the season with the 180 players we selected in the draft only 25 players were selected at a position where their output exceed expectation. Every other player under-performed.

Lets repeat that: Only 25 players out of the 180 we selected exceed the score they were expected to reach!

This sounds horrendous and although we have take into account the frightening attrition of players in the NFL it does show the difficulty of “getting it right” in the draft. Considering most of our GMs draft from draft value sheets available from media outlets in print and from the web it reflects poorly on the consensus of “expert knowledge” or does it?

Although our bottom 20 picks are littered with players injured during the season there are also a number who perhaps spent far too long on a roster when they could have been moved on for value at another position. Players such as Ryan Tannehill, Tony Romo, Cardinals DST and LeSean McCoy are the glaring examples.

On the opposite side of the coin just outside the bottom 20 there are a number of notable casualties of impatience. Players such as Torrey Smith (21st ranked WR) who scored only  15 of his 96 points, Steven Jackson (20th ranked RB) who scored 0 of his 100 points, Jordan Matthews (19th ranked WR) who scored 0 of his 110 points, and Jeremy Hill (14th ranked RB) who scored 10 of his 114 for their original teams.

So, without giving anything away for the awards night in February here are the Top and Bottom 20 draft picks for this season (excluding the top/bottom 3):

Draft Highlights (Top 20)

RND	PICK	POS	Player	Selected By	Points	Expected	PLUS/MINUS
8							76.50
3							75.10
2							71.20
9	2	WR	Emmanuel Sanders	Kelso 187s	147.40	86.30	61.10
5	6	QB	Andrew Luck	Earlstonian Bohemians	297.74	243.32	54.42
5	1	WR	T.Y. Hilton	Tranent International Tornadoes	146.50	112.00	34.50
1	11	RB	Marshawn Lynch	Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars	197.30	164.20	33.10
3	12	RB	Andre Ellington	Nitten Pickaxe	125.50	96.50	29.00
2	11	WR	Antonio Brown	Kelso 187s	174.90	146.50	28.40
2	7	TE	Rob Gronkowski	Earlstonian Bohemians	145.00	119.00	26.00
14	6	RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	Oakbank Oddities	79.90	55.40	24.50
3	4	RB	Alfred Morris	Dodgy Touchdown	143.80	120.30	23.50
2	9	WR	Jordy Nelson	Dodgy Touchdown	171.90	151.90	20.00
11	7	WR	DeAndre Hopkins	Oakbank Oddities	91.00	78.60	12.40
1	9	RB	Arian Foster	Earlston Earthquakes	177.60	165.60	12.00
3	3	WR	Randall Cobb	Pilton Panthers	153.90	145.00	8.90
10	9	PK	Justin Tucker	Dodgy Touchdown	116.00	110.00	6.00
10	6	PK	Stephen Gostkowski	Oakbank Oddities	122.00	118.00	4.00
7	12	TE	Greg Olsen	Nitten Pickaxe	98.70	95.40	3.30
11	3	PK	Matt Bryant	Pilton Panthers	107.00	104.00	3.00

Draft Lowlights (Bottom 20)

13	2	PK	Sebastian Janikowski	Kelso 187s	0.00	102.00	-102.00
2	10	RB	Doug Martin	Pilton Panthers	28.00	131.50	-103.50
11	2	DST	Arizona	Kelso 187s	3.00	108.00	-105.00
4	8	WR	Victor Cruz	Mercy Flush	23.00	128.40	-105.40
10	5	PK	Matt Prater	SanFran Gordon 69ers	10.00	120.00	-110.00
13	10	QB	Ryan Tannehill	Fog on the Tyne	18.66	134.78	-116.12
6	10	QB	Nick Foles	Pilton Panthers	104.90	225.02	-120.12
3	1	RB	Ryan Mathews	Tranent International Tornadoes	5.70	126.00	-120.30
1	1	RB	LeSean McCoy	Tranent International Tornadoes	93.90	215.00	-121.10
11	6	QB	Tony Romo	Mercy Flush	65.28	187.12	-121.84
7	1	DST	Seattle	Tranent International Tornadoes	14.00	153.00	-139.00
6	1	QB	Matthew Stafford	Nitten Pickaxe	98.18	242.24	-144.06
1	6	RB	Montee Ball	Earlstonian Bohemians	27.40	172.70	-145.30
12	10	QB	Andy Dalton	Pilton Panthers	24.46	171.06	-146.60
12	11	QB	Alex Smith	Kelso 187s	22.72	169.64	-146.92
13	7	QB	Johnny Manziel	Oakbank Oddities	0.00	164.02	-164.02
12	12	QB	Blake Bortles	Tranent International Tornadoes	0.00	164.46	-164.46
8							-166.68
1							-189.60
7							-194.56

Now the tables above are great and give us some idea of our drafting ability, but what I wanted to do with this analysis is look a little bit deeper and see if we can spot some trends in the draft. Was there a secret formula that would have led to success or do we just have to buy lottery ticket and hope for the best.

Over the off-season I’ll be writing a series of articles commenting on our strategy for each position. Next I’ll begin with the big hitters: Running Backs.