Stats From the Pit – overall player value for drafted players

I’m trying to get a handle on overall player values this year – a completely unscientific compound score based on a few separate figures:

Real life average scores

a draft order modifier subtracted from this average based on a 1st round pick being expected to make 15 more points than a last round pick – this is open to debate – what should this figure be? – the equation I used to generate this figure was (15-(draft pick number/180) so pick 1 (Mccoy) gets a -14.99 modifier – and pick 180 (chiefs) gets a -0 modifier.

Consistency score – the total difference between the real life average score and each week’s actual score divided by the number of starts (clearly this doesn’t work for folk who only start once). For example this gives Hauschka 2.25 and Lynch 8.55. However Kickers are by far the most consistent position here, so perhaps its not that fair?

Overall that gives a players overall value to a team something to do with how early in the draft they had to be picked, how well they actually scored, and whether you could rely on them week after week.

Anyone who is interested can have the actual calculation sheets to play with – perhaps changing the values for draft modifier and giving a positional weight to consistency score.

Lastly, I also had to make a decision about how many starts they must have had – I went for 8, this keeps in manageable but also allows for draft picks that you knew were injured at the start of the season or having a wee injury in the middle.

Heres’ the results in descending order:

draft NAME POSITION Team TotScore starts average draft modifier modified average Averaqe inconsistency Final value score
54 A.Luck QB Bohemians 297.74 12 24.81 11.40 13.41 4.97 8.44
110 R.Wilson QB Jaguars 168.44 9 18.72 7.67 11.05 5.16 5.89
15 P.Manning QB Tornadoes 276.08 12 23.01 14.00 9.01 4.28 4.73
17 A.Rodgers QB 69ers 281.00 12 23.42 13.87 9.55 5.94 3.61
177 Texans DEF Earthquakes 88.00 8 11.00 3.20 7.80 4.25 3.55
78 T.Brady QB Flush 199.68 10 19.97 9.80 10.17 7.04 3.13
24 D.Brees QB Fog 243.32 12 20.28 13.40 6.88 3.92 2.96
76 M.Ryan QB Touchdown 155.66 9 17.30 9.93 7.36 5.18 2.19
81 J.Cutler QB Earthquakes 166.10 10 16.61 9.60 7.01 5.21 1.80
173 N.Novak K Flush 67.00 9 7.44 3.47 3.98 2.56 1.42
14 D.Murray RB Jaguars 215.00 12 17.92 14.07 3.85 3.25 0.60
66 C.Kaepernick QB Oddities 180.74 12 15.06 10.60 4.46 4.34 0.12
98 E.Sanders WR 187s 147.40 11 13.40 8.47 4.93 5.25 -0.32
117 J.Tucker K Touchdown 116.00 12 9.67 7.20 2.47 3.33 -0.87
102 S.Hauschka K Bohemians 114.00 12 9.50 8.20 1.30 2.25 -0.95
135 M.Crosby K Fog 82.00 10 8.20 6.00 2.20 3.20 -1.00
114 S.Gostkowski K Oddities 122.00 12 10.17 7.40 2.77 3.86 -1.09
121 D.Bailey K Tornadoes 102.00 12 8.50 6.93 1.57 2.75 -1.18
119 Ravens DEF Panthers 62.00 8 7.75 7.07 0.68 2.56 -1.88
9 A.Foster RB Earthquakes 177.60 9 19.73 14.40 5.33 7.26 -1.93
91 J.Maclin WR Bohemians 162.80 12 13.57 8.93 4.63 7.18 -2.55
127 D.Hopkins WR Oddities 91.00 8 11.38 6.53 4.84 7.64 -2.80
26 L.Bell RB 187s 198.90 12 16.58 13.27 3.31 6.58 -3.28
23 A.Brown WR 187s 174.90 11 15.90 13.47 2.43 6.14 -3.71
123 M.Bryant K Panthers 56.00 8 7.00 6.80 0.20 4.00 -3.80
84 G.Olsen TE Pickaxe 98.70 10 9.87 9.40 0.47 4.36 -3.89
69 M.Wallace WR Touchdown 84.00 10 8.40 10.40 -2.00 2.40 -4.40
80 J.Edelman WR 69ers 65.90 8 8.24 9.67 -1.43 3.33 -4.76
89 49ers DEF 69ers 79.00 9 8.78 9.07 -0.29 4.60 -4.89
27 R.Cobb WR Panthers 153.90 12 12.83 13.20 -0.38 4.58 -4.95
4 M.Forte RB Touchdown 195.80 12 16.32 14.73 1.58 6.69 -5.11
49 T.Hilton WR Tornadoes 146.50 12 12.21 11.73 0.47 5.63 -5.15
96 M.Bennett TE Tornadoes 68.40 8 8.55 8.60 -0.05 5.16 -5.21
34 A.Jeffery WR Fog 126.00 11 11.45 12.73 -1.28 4.16 -5.44
57 R.White WR Earthquakes 89.60 9 9.96 11.20 -1.24 4.32 -5.56
21 J.Nelson WR Touchdown 171.90 12 14.33 13.60 0.73 6.48 -5.75
33 R.Jennings RB Earthquakes 100.60 8 12.58 12.80 -0.23 5.72 -5.94
87 J.Witten TE Fog 70.90 12 5.91 9.20 -3.29 2.76 -6.05
3 J.Charles RB Panthers 170.10 11 15.46 14.80 0.66 6.84 -6.18
11 M.Lynch RB Jaguars 197.30 12 16.44 14.27 2.18 8.55 -6.37
36 A.Ellington RB Pickaxe 125.50 11 11.41 12.60 -1.19 5.21 -6.40
10 D.Thomas WR Fog 187.50 12 15.63 14.33 1.29 7.72 -6.43
12 D.Bryant WR Pickaxe 155.20 12 12.93 14.20 -1.27 5.27 -6.53
58 T.Richardson RB Fog 66.10 8 8.26 11.13 -2.87 3.74 -6.61
19 R.Gronkowski TE Bohemians 145.00 12 12.08 13.73 -1.65 5.03 -6.68
28 A.Morris RB Touchdown 143.80 12 11.98 13.13 -1.15 5.53 -6.68
13 A.Green WR Pickaxe 96.80 9 10.76 14.13 -3.38 3.34 -6.72
67 E.Decker WR Bohemians 53.00 8 6.63 10.53 -3.91 3.03 -6.94
20 J.Jones WR Flush 145.00 12 12.08 13.67 -1.58 5.38 -6.96
43 J.Bell RB Bohemians 88.70 9 9.86 12.13 -2.28 5.17 -7.45
93 Z.Ertz TE Touchdown 34.20 8 4.28 8.80 -4.53 3.03 -7.56
65 S.Vereen RB 69ers 76.10 10 7.61 10.67 -3.06 4.89 -7.95
5 E.Lacy RB Flush 164.20 12 13.68 14.67 -0.98 7.00 -7.98
38 V.Jackson WR Jaguars 63.80 9 7.09 12.47 -5.38 2.61 -7.99
42 J.Thomas TE Oddities 114.60 10 11.46 12.20 -0.74 7.31 -8.05
18 G.Bernard RB Oddities 104.50 9 11.61 13.80 -2.19 6.04 -8.23
45 A.Johnson WR Touchdown 45.80 8 5.73 12.00 -6.28 2.49 -8.77
1 L.McCoy RB Tornadoes 93.90 10 9.39 14.93 -5.54 3.87 -9.42
8 J.Graham TE 69ers 119.00 12 9.92 14.47 -4.55 4.91 -9.46
46 P.Harvin WR Panthers 49.30 9 5.48 11.93 -6.46 3.02 -9.48
32 F.Gore RB 69ers 95.80 12 7.98 12.87 -4.88 5.25 -10.13
16 B.Marshall WR Earthquakes 107.80 11 9.80 13.93 -4.13 6.25 -10.39
7 C.Johnson WR Oddities 102.40 9 11.38 14.53 -3.16 8.48 -11.64
Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s