Week 16 Review- Final Weekend

headline Earlston SuperBowl II


(9-7) Mercy Flush  68.18 @ 105.52 Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars (10-5) Top Scorers: T Romo 27.52 (JJJ), O Beckham 26.8 (JJJ), E Lacy 16.4 (MF) Odell Beckham Jr nails the winning score

Spearheaded by the three-headed monster of Tony Romo, Odell Beckham, and DeSean Jackson, the Jaguars overwhelmed Mercy Flush 105.52 to 68.18. That threesome combined to tally 66.92 points, significantly more than the top scorers from Mercy Flush (Eddie Lacy, Julio Jones, and Tom Brady), who totaled 37.38 points. Romo passed for four touchdowns, registering 27.52 points (218 Pas Yds, 28 Rsh Yds, 4 TD). Beckham came through with two touchdowns to contribute 26.80 points (148 Rec Yds, 2 TD), while Jackson helped out with 12.60 points (126 Rec Yds). Romo also recorded his highest point total of the season, with Beckham tallying the highest point total of the week at his position.

wilson

There were a few players in this matchup that received plenty of opportunities, yet could’ve been more effective. On the winning side, DeMarco Murray and Mark Ingram got 38 total touches but only tallied 113 yards from scrimmage between them. For Mercy Flush, Justin Forsett managed just 32 yards on 14 touches.

While Beckham led the Jermans last week with 30.30 points, Romo paced the squad for the first time this season.

For the victorious side, a couple of players have been heating up in the postseason : Beckham and Romo. During the playoffs, that duo has bettered their season scoring averages by 162% and 52%, respectively. On the other hand, Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars has two players heading in the opposite direction. Kelvin Benjamin and Cody Parkey have both fallen well beneath their year-to-date averages during the postseason. Despite the loss, Mercy Flush had a pair of players performing their best in the playoffs: Connor Barth and Harry Douglas. During the postseason, that combo has averaged 9.33 and 8.90 points, respectively, topping their season-long marks by 219% and 101%. Conversely, the losers had a player who was sputtering under the brightest lights. Averaging 13.29 points on the season, Forsett mustered just 7.23 per game in the playoffs.

Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars ended the regular season in third place with a record of 8-5. When considering points per game, they ranked slightly better (first with 103.54). After a bye in the first round of the playoffs, Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars took down Nitten Pickaxe, 114.62 to 108.72, on their trail to the title. Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars passed out their fair share of pain this year, as they racked up six blowout victories on the season. Mercy Flush concluded the regular season in sixth place with a record of 7-6. In terms of scoring average, they ranked slightly better (fifth with 93.70). In their last game, Mercy Flush beat Earlstonian Bohemians, 106.48 to 93.08. The week before, they defeated Kelso 187’s, 110.48 to 104.38.

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Pick um or Stick um Final Result

A big congratulations must go out to the Earlston Earthquakes head coach Chris Powell as our first Pick um or Stick um Champion.

I think a lot of your were surprised as I was just how difficult it was to predict just 6 score correct. As this was only done once by Nitten Pickaxe coach Gav and once on a 4 game week by the 69ers coach Richie. So well done to both of them too.

I hope you all enjoyed a little game on the side to run a long with the main event as I know I did. A big thank you must go out to all that took part to the end and for those who never bothered or gave up before the end then get you arse into gear for next year.

This years winner will be presented with his trophy on Superbowl night, so well done once again Cozy and I will now leave you with the final standings.

Final Standings

Earthquakes 37
187s 35
JJJ 35
Pickaxe 34
Bohemians 33
69ers 32
Flush 30
Touchdowns 27
TiTs 25
Fog 12
Oddities 3
Panthers 0

A view from the top.

So here we are, the final.

Like a rag tag bunch of misfits straight from the pages of an 80’s kids sports movie, Mercy Flush is in the final.

Little_giants_movie

How we made it here is a mystery to most, but is mainly a story of good planning, excellent draft strategy and luck… a shit ton of luck.  I say with authority that my journey to the final has been equal to a visit to the lavvy the morning after taking down a 12oz steak & chips.  That ‘gazelle in a greased up sleeping bag’ took some odd turns, appeared to be tearing apart from the inside and left teeth marks on the side of the sink but ultimately got into the bowl with a huge sigh of relief, ridiculous amounts of satisfaction and the desire to take photos to show my friends who (in the main) will be confused, uninterested and in most cases a little disgusted at how i spend my free time.

But this season hasn’t all been about poop jokes, no sir! I have learnt alot this year, I can safely say i have definitely performed less research this year than i did in my rookie year.  Thats not to say I couldn’t be bothered or didn’t want to read everything i could lay my hands on, but I did do alot of analysis in the off season this year trying to work out which sources were accurate last year and which were less so, I also looked at why some of the sources were less accurate?  Where they better at predicting QB performances over TE’s?  Did the weather screw them up? Could they predict yards but not TDs? Was it the fact that there are so many resources that sometimes people just make stuff up?  So, after all this reading and analysing I started this year ignoring the ones that were usually wrong, absorbed EVERYTHING the good sources gave me and only looked at the stuff in the middle if i had a spare 5/10mins here and there… otherwise known as the ‘Morning motion’.  In the main this has served me well… with a couple of errors that in hindsight were silly mistakes but I was confident in my sources and i played the best lineup (to my knowledge) at that time.  I plan to perform this same analysis in the off season this year in the hopes to find some trends and more accurately pin down my sources and perhaps add some new ones.

So thats it for now.  I had started to write a post about why i have chosen the team i have for this weekend but remembered that the Jags sometimes field a team based on their opposition so i stopped short and put it to one side to finish another day.

So i say good luck to Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars and thanks to all of the EFFL for another awesome season.  See you all at Superbowl!

 

Pick um or Stick um The Final

Here are your week 16 picks

Coach Euan:

187s, Bohemians, JJJ, Touchdowns, TiTs, 69ers.

Coach Ally:

Bohemians, Fog, Panthers, 187s, TiTs,  JJJ.

Coach Nicky:

Pickaxe, TiTs, Panthers 187s, Fog, JJJ.

Coach Paul: 

Flush, Bohemians, Touchdowns, 187s, TiTs, Fog.

Coach Stuart:

No entry submitted.

Coach Russell:

JJJ, Panthers, Pickaxe, Earthquakes, Oddities Fog.

Coach Gav:

JJJ, Pickaxe, 187s, Fog, Panthers TiTs.

Coach Richie:

69ers, Pickaxe, Flush, Touchdowns, 187s, Oddities.

Coach Cozy:

Earthquakes, Bohemians, JJJ, Touchdowns, Oddities, Fog.

Coach Jimmy:

Fog, TiT, 187s, Touchdowns, Pickaxe Flush.

Coach Harry:

No entry submitted

Coach Rab:

No entry submitted

So here is how the voting went.

Bohemians 4 Picks

Pickaxe 5 Picks

JJJ 6 Picks

Flush 3 Picks

Touchdown 5 Picks

187s 7 Picks

TiT 6 Picks

Panthers 4 Picks

Oddities 3 Picks

Earthquakes 2 Picks

Fog 7 Picks

69ers 2 Picks

So there you have it this weeks Pick um teams are The Fog and for the second week running the 187s with 7 Picks each and this week we have 2 Stick um teams on 2 Picks and they are Earthquakes and again for the second week The 69ers.

Standings.

JJJ 32
Earthquakes 32
Pickaxe 31 100% x 1
187s 31
69ers 29 100% x 1*
Bohemians 29
Flush 26
Touchdowns 24
TiT 22
Fog 12
Oddities 3
Panthers 0

* 100% in a 4 game week.

Good Luck to all still in with a chance.

View From the Pit week 16

Week 16 is upon us, and with it the EFFL Bowl. Its final week and our last teams standing are Paul’s Mercy Flush and Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars. Everyone else has been left by the wayside as these 2 slug it out for the trophy and the glory.

Lets get the other games out of the way first; this time the Pit Says:

  • PICKAXE over Bohemians
  • 187S over Earthquakes
  • FOG over 69ers
  • PANTHERS over Touchdown
  • TORNADOES over Oddities

SO , back to the main event:

With Cam Newton Looking like he’s back both teams have quality choice at QB. Its Cam or Tom Brady for Paul and Tony Romo Or Russell Wilson for Jimmy. Jimmy’s is the tougher choice perhaps, neither player has a great match up, playing the Colts and Cardinals respectively who’ve both not been too shabby at preventing big QB scores. Both the Seahawks and the Cowboys are still chasing playoff spots, so either game is make or break. A maybe less difficult choice for Paul with Newton coming back off an injury and up against the Jets, Brady looks the man, but who knows?

RB is probably a no brainer for both teams, any one of the 4 Lacy, Forsett, Lynch and Ingram would have been a guaranteed start every day of the week in EFFL, so really I can’t see that changing – Jimmy’s only quandry will be if DeMarco Murray is playing, but who doesn’t want problems like that! The game could be decided not so much on who has a good game but who has a bad one, out of these 4 Ingram has been the most consistent, and Lynch the least  that leaves Lacy and Forsett for Flush in the middle  – so there’s really very little to choose here. If Murray is fit however, even if Jimmy only puts him in at flex, it could be the difference he’s looking for, as he’s been one of the most high scoring and consistent backs.

At WR, Jones  had been doing the job for Paul and rated above average for points and consistency across the regular season – but he’s been sidelined for over a week now. Its unclear if he can play against the Saints. No such problems for Jimmy where Odell Beckam and Kelvin Benjamin look to continue a rich vein of form, Benjamin not scoring nearly so high, but consistently at or around the magical 10 point mark for a few weeks. DeSean Jackson is Jimmy’s other choice, and there’s no guarantee as to which of these 3 he’s going to pick.

Neither team has choice for TEs this week, and Paul should see the benefit of sticking with his star Travis Kelce, Jimmy has been all over the NFL looking for a TE this season, and Reed, though predicted to score his mandatory 10 , has not been on form or consistent recently.

Flex choices will be a no brainer for Jimmy if Murray is fit, and he can slot those 3 RBs where he wants. Paul has a little bit more calculating to do but I suspect it will be one of his wideouts rather than Jame Starks at RB.

Kickers are pretty evenly matched this week Washington have given a few less points to kickers, but that’s really pretty meaningless, Kickers have a good game when the offence has a good but not great game, Both the Eagles and the Broncos are on very similar points for  this year but the eagles have scored less touchdowns, giving this kick battle a slight edge for Cody Parkey, perhaps with more chances at field goals.

Finally DST. There’s little to choose between Jimmy’s 2 options, both the Rams and the Bills are capable of big Scores, perhaps the Bills slightly more consistent, plus they take on the Giants who have given plenty points to DST this season. Either of these choices are better on paper than Paul’s non choice of the Cardinals, there’s still time to pick up someone else this week though – will he go for it, or trust the last month where the Cards have been pretty much the most consistent if only average scoring DST.

So that’s the match ups, what about the game itself. Little chance of any action Thursday but Paul’s Connor Barth should sore the last meaningful points in EFFL this season when he kicks for the Broncos. Unusually there’s a Saturday game, and Jimmy has at least 2, possibly 3 players to watch there. One of the hottest match ups is way after my bedtime on Sunday, we’ll see if either of these 2 want to stay up for the Seahawks Cardinals game, where either Lynch could tear through or the Cards might put a stop to Jimmy’s Juggernaut. Most of the rest will be the Sunday early and late evening game, and there’s no obvious one game to watch, perhaps Tom Brady at the jets for Paul and Kelvin Benjamin against the Browns for Jimmy followed by Odell Beckam at St Louis.

All in it looks like it could be close, but with scores piling up on Saturday then late Sunday for Jimmy, and in between for Paul, there will be something to watch for everyone. The pit prediction is for the Jags. We know that the Flush have pulled it out of the bag in the playoffs, but JJJs scoring record and depth at RB/WR cannot be overlooked.

that’s’ the View form the Pit signing off on previews for the season, there may be some stats blogs, but in the meantime – see you next year.

What I’ve Learned: Context and Perspective Trump Technique

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP)

Favre might as well be on a pitcher's mound with this delivery where his back foot is on the rubber and his front foot in the air. Favre might as well be on a pitcher’s mound with this delivery where his back foot is on the rubber and his front foot in the air, but he made plays.

A football writer called me up yesterday morning and broached a topic that I believe separates the savvier talent analysts from the less nuanced: quarterback mechanics. 

“How important are quarterback mechanics and what do you make of analysts that cite them as critical cause-effect issues with the development or lack of development of a passer?”

This is what my colleague asked this morning during a phone call. To his credit, he believes that technique–the grammar of positional execution–is only so important. I agree wholeheartedly and I referred him to my post Get Er Done: QB Mechanics By Brett Favre.

I also offered the a simpler explanation. Quarterback mechanics are important if the player is consistently failing to deliver accurate…

View original post 596 more words

Week 15 Review- Semi-Final Weekend

The dust finally settled on the semi-finals and at last after a long, hard and eventful season we have our Earlston SuperBowl II finalists.

The Mercy Flush dumped the No 1 seed Earlstonian Bohemians and Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars squeezed past last year’s champions the Nitten Pickaxe.

In the consolation bracket, the Fog on the Tyne thrashed the Pilton Panthers and the SanFran-Gordon 69ers squeezed past the Dodgy Touchdown. The 69ers and the Fog on the Tyne will contest the Consolation Bowl game

Championship Bracket


(9-6) Mercy Flush  106.48 @ 93.08 Earlstonian Bohemians (9-5)

Top Scorers: Ravens 20 (EB), T Brady 19.28 (MF), E Lacy 16.8 (MF)

Points left on bench: Flush (5.5) Bohemians (7.3)

(9-6) Nitten Pickaxe 108.72 @ 114.62 Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars (9-5)

Top Scorers: O Beckham 30.3 (JJJ), D Bryant 29.4 (NP), J Hill 27.2 (NP)

Points left on bench: Pickaxe (9.4) Jaguars (21.78)


Consolation Bracket

(7-8) Fog on the Tyne 100.5 @  48.88 Pilton Panthers (5-9)

Top Scorers:D Brees 27.2 (FT), D Thomas 18.3 (FT), Chiefs 16 (FT)

Points left on bench: Fog (15.1) Panthers (35.86)

(7-8) SanFran-Gordon 69ers 76.5 @ 75.1 Dodgy Touchdown (7-7)

Top Scorers: M Wallace 16.4 (DT), J Edelman 15.4 (SF), B Roethlisberger 14.2 (DT)

Points left on bench: 69ers (8.6) Touchdown (17.5)

Stats From the Pit – overall player value for drafted players

I’m trying to get a handle on overall player values this year – a completely unscientific compound score based on a few separate figures:

Real life average scores

a draft order modifier subtracted from this average based on a 1st round pick being expected to make 15 more points than a last round pick – this is open to debate – what should this figure be? – the equation I used to generate this figure was (15-(draft pick number/180) so pick 1 (Mccoy) gets a -14.99 modifier – and pick 180 (chiefs) gets a -0 modifier.

Consistency score – the total difference between the real life average score and each week’s actual score divided by the number of starts (clearly this doesn’t work for folk who only start once). For example this gives Hauschka 2.25 and Lynch 8.55. However Kickers are by far the most consistent position here, so perhaps its not that fair?

Overall that gives a players overall value to a team something to do with how early in the draft they had to be picked, how well they actually scored, and whether you could rely on them week after week.

Anyone who is interested can have the actual calculation sheets to play with – perhaps changing the values for draft modifier and giving a positional weight to consistency score.

Lastly, I also had to make a decision about how many starts they must have had – I went for 8, this keeps in manageable but also allows for draft picks that you knew were injured at the start of the season or having a wee injury in the middle.

Heres’ the results in descending order:

draft NAME POSITION Team TotScore starts average draft modifier modified average Averaqe inconsistency Final value score
54 A.Luck QB Bohemians 297.74 12 24.81 11.40 13.41 4.97 8.44
110 R.Wilson QB Jaguars 168.44 9 18.72 7.67 11.05 5.16 5.89
15 P.Manning QB Tornadoes 276.08 12 23.01 14.00 9.01 4.28 4.73
17 A.Rodgers QB 69ers 281.00 12 23.42 13.87 9.55 5.94 3.61
177 Texans DEF Earthquakes 88.00 8 11.00 3.20 7.80 4.25 3.55
78 T.Brady QB Flush 199.68 10 19.97 9.80 10.17 7.04 3.13
24 D.Brees QB Fog 243.32 12 20.28 13.40 6.88 3.92 2.96
76 M.Ryan QB Touchdown 155.66 9 17.30 9.93 7.36 5.18 2.19
81 J.Cutler QB Earthquakes 166.10 10 16.61 9.60 7.01 5.21 1.80
173 N.Novak K Flush 67.00 9 7.44 3.47 3.98 2.56 1.42
14 D.Murray RB Jaguars 215.00 12 17.92 14.07 3.85 3.25 0.60
66 C.Kaepernick QB Oddities 180.74 12 15.06 10.60 4.46 4.34 0.12
98 E.Sanders WR 187s 147.40 11 13.40 8.47 4.93 5.25 -0.32
117 J.Tucker K Touchdown 116.00 12 9.67 7.20 2.47 3.33 -0.87
102 S.Hauschka K Bohemians 114.00 12 9.50 8.20 1.30 2.25 -0.95
135 M.Crosby K Fog 82.00 10 8.20 6.00 2.20 3.20 -1.00
114 S.Gostkowski K Oddities 122.00 12 10.17 7.40 2.77 3.86 -1.09
121 D.Bailey K Tornadoes 102.00 12 8.50 6.93 1.57 2.75 -1.18
119 Ravens DEF Panthers 62.00 8 7.75 7.07 0.68 2.56 -1.88
9 A.Foster RB Earthquakes 177.60 9 19.73 14.40 5.33 7.26 -1.93
91 J.Maclin WR Bohemians 162.80 12 13.57 8.93 4.63 7.18 -2.55
127 D.Hopkins WR Oddities 91.00 8 11.38 6.53 4.84 7.64 -2.80
26 L.Bell RB 187s 198.90 12 16.58 13.27 3.31 6.58 -3.28
23 A.Brown WR 187s 174.90 11 15.90 13.47 2.43 6.14 -3.71
123 M.Bryant K Panthers 56.00 8 7.00 6.80 0.20 4.00 -3.80
84 G.Olsen TE Pickaxe 98.70 10 9.87 9.40 0.47 4.36 -3.89
69 M.Wallace WR Touchdown 84.00 10 8.40 10.40 -2.00 2.40 -4.40
80 J.Edelman WR 69ers 65.90 8 8.24 9.67 -1.43 3.33 -4.76
89 49ers DEF 69ers 79.00 9 8.78 9.07 -0.29 4.60 -4.89
27 R.Cobb WR Panthers 153.90 12 12.83 13.20 -0.38 4.58 -4.95
4 M.Forte RB Touchdown 195.80 12 16.32 14.73 1.58 6.69 -5.11
49 T.Hilton WR Tornadoes 146.50 12 12.21 11.73 0.47 5.63 -5.15
96 M.Bennett TE Tornadoes 68.40 8 8.55 8.60 -0.05 5.16 -5.21
34 A.Jeffery WR Fog 126.00 11 11.45 12.73 -1.28 4.16 -5.44
57 R.White WR Earthquakes 89.60 9 9.96 11.20 -1.24 4.32 -5.56
21 J.Nelson WR Touchdown 171.90 12 14.33 13.60 0.73 6.48 -5.75
33 R.Jennings RB Earthquakes 100.60 8 12.58 12.80 -0.23 5.72 -5.94
87 J.Witten TE Fog 70.90 12 5.91 9.20 -3.29 2.76 -6.05
3 J.Charles RB Panthers 170.10 11 15.46 14.80 0.66 6.84 -6.18
11 M.Lynch RB Jaguars 197.30 12 16.44 14.27 2.18 8.55 -6.37
36 A.Ellington RB Pickaxe 125.50 11 11.41 12.60 -1.19 5.21 -6.40
10 D.Thomas WR Fog 187.50 12 15.63 14.33 1.29 7.72 -6.43
12 D.Bryant WR Pickaxe 155.20 12 12.93 14.20 -1.27 5.27 -6.53
58 T.Richardson RB Fog 66.10 8 8.26 11.13 -2.87 3.74 -6.61
19 R.Gronkowski TE Bohemians 145.00 12 12.08 13.73 -1.65 5.03 -6.68
28 A.Morris RB Touchdown 143.80 12 11.98 13.13 -1.15 5.53 -6.68
13 A.Green WR Pickaxe 96.80 9 10.76 14.13 -3.38 3.34 -6.72
67 E.Decker WR Bohemians 53.00 8 6.63 10.53 -3.91 3.03 -6.94
20 J.Jones WR Flush 145.00 12 12.08 13.67 -1.58 5.38 -6.96
43 J.Bell RB Bohemians 88.70 9 9.86 12.13 -2.28 5.17 -7.45
93 Z.Ertz TE Touchdown 34.20 8 4.28 8.80 -4.53 3.03 -7.56
65 S.Vereen RB 69ers 76.10 10 7.61 10.67 -3.06 4.89 -7.95
5 E.Lacy RB Flush 164.20 12 13.68 14.67 -0.98 7.00 -7.98
38 V.Jackson WR Jaguars 63.80 9 7.09 12.47 -5.38 2.61 -7.99
42 J.Thomas TE Oddities 114.60 10 11.46 12.20 -0.74 7.31 -8.05
18 G.Bernard RB Oddities 104.50 9 11.61 13.80 -2.19 6.04 -8.23
45 A.Johnson WR Touchdown 45.80 8 5.73 12.00 -6.28 2.49 -8.77
1 L.McCoy RB Tornadoes 93.90 10 9.39 14.93 -5.54 3.87 -9.42
8 J.Graham TE 69ers 119.00 12 9.92 14.47 -4.55 4.91 -9.46
46 P.Harvin WR Panthers 49.30 9 5.48 11.93 -6.46 3.02 -9.48
32 F.Gore RB 69ers 95.80 12 7.98 12.87 -4.88 5.25 -10.13
16 B.Marshall WR Earthquakes 107.80 11 9.80 13.93 -4.13 6.25 -10.39
7 C.Johnson WR Oddities 102.40 9 11.38 14.53 -3.16 8.48 -11.64

Pick Um or Stick Um week 15

Here are your week 15 picks

Coach Euan:

Flush, Panthers, JJJ, 69ers.

Coach Ally:

Bohemians, Panthers, JJJ, Touchdowns.

Coach Nicky:

Bohemians, Fog, JJJ, Touchdowns.

Coach Paul: 

Flush, Panthers, JJJ, Touchdowns.

Coach Stuart:

No entry submitted.

Coach Russell:

JJJ, Bohemians, fog, Touchdowns.

Coach Gav:

Pickaxe, Bohemians, Fog, Touchdowns.

Coach Richie:

69ers, Flush, Fog, JJJ.

Coach Cozy:

Flush, Fog, JJJ, Touchdowns.

Coach Jimmy:

Flush, JJJ Panthers, Touchdowns.

Coach Harry:

No entry submitted

Coach Rab:

No entry submitted

So here is how the voting went.

Pickaxe 1 Picks

Flush 5 Picks

Fog 5 Picks

69ers 2 Picks

Panthers 4 Picks

JJJ 8 Picks

Bohemians 4 Picks

Touchdowns 7 Picks

So there you have it this weeks Pick um team is  The JJJ with 8 Picks and this week we have their opponents  Nitten Pickaxe with 1 Pick (His own vote) as this weeks Stick um team.

Standings.

Pickaxe 30        1  100%
JJJ 30
Earthquakes 29
Bohemians 28
187s 28
69ers 25
Flush 24
Touchdowns 22
TiT 20
Fog
Oddities 3
Panthers 0

View from the Pit – week 15 – Semi finals

So we are down to the Fantastic 4 – just 2 games left to show who’s going to be Mr Fantastic and who’s going to be Invisible Girl (hey sorry Susan, I know you had an upgrade but that’s not the comic I remember)

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First Up its a Kirk double header for Ally’s Bohemians vs Paul’s Flush. Boho’s have taken both of the previous 2 match ups this season comfortably with Paul having pretty duff weeks both times. Andrew Luck and Rob Gronkowski show no signs of letting up in their top QB and TE respectively so lets assume Ally has 35 -40 pts in the bag their. On the other side they are no slouches, and shoe in for pick up of the year Justin Forsett is facing the Jags who’ve given up the 6th most points to RBs this year. Although the match up looks daunting Paul really only needs just above average games from his RBs and WRs, Either that or just one of them to have a monster, all 4 of them look more likely  than the Boho set. Paul could have a secret 15 points with the Cardinals at the Rams, its not a definite by any means, but St Louis have given the 3rd most points to defence, Its telling that the Rams changed QBs through the season and both of them have given away a few interceptions. For Ally, if its business as usual for Luck, the Gronk and maybe just 4 of the rest, or any one of his seven also rans has a standout game, that should see him through to the final. Thursday night sees just the Cardinals defence in action, this divisional game could seal the deal for the Cardinals, so expect them to be in it to win it and pumped right up. On Sunday there are only a couple of plus minus games, mostly the teams avoid each other completely. Flush’s Forsett and Bohos Ravens defense are together of course, but there’s no reason their scores need be tied, I guess if the Ravens are in front they might run down the clock, giving Forsett more action and a few grinding yards in the 4th? The real killer could be the Dolphins Pats game; the Pats nearly have the AFC East sewn up, but the Dolphins have an outside chance at a wildcard. So, a must win game for the dolphins could mean that Ally’s Lamar Miller gets a few more chances, maybe even short 4th down plays. Alternatively, if the Dolphins go all out and screw it up, Tom Brady could be on the field for a long time, giving Paul the chance for more points, that makes this the 6.00 game to watch. Later on, ally has a lot more to watch in his three players, but still its Paul’s kicker that they’ll both be watching. Kickers have had a real tendancy to screw with the results, and the Broncos Chargers game is nearly a divisional decider, so expect a few more Pat’s and possibly some long FG attempts. That’s perhaps a little unfair, as Bohos have players that must do well ,but there’s a reason; its the Boho’s game to lose – the Pit prediction is a win for the Bohemians, Paul really needs to have everything go right to get his seat at the top table.

In the other Semi Gav’s Pickaxe line up against Jimmy’s Jerman Jaguars. Just 3 weeks ago the Jaguars crushed the Pickaxe by nearly 50 points, can this semi be a repeat of that horror story? Looking from the top – QBs are almost exactly matched, the predictions swing between the 2 of them, In fact between them the 2 teams have the #9,10,11 and 12 QBs (according to Fantasy pros anyway) that leaves both coaches with lineup headaches, fortunately none of the 4 are playing each other, though maybe that would make the choice easier? both teams have till 9 on Sunday to decide though, so expect a few changes in the coming days, there really is no obvious choice for either team, no one is through to playoffs yet and no one is definitely out. Further down the squad, Jimmy has a big advantage at RB, the heart of his top scoring team this season, but the triple threat Running team doesn’t always fire, and Gav needs to hope that at least one of them has a poor game. Lynch looks the most likely to fall this week (though not that likely!) with his back injury and playing the so far robust against the run 49ers defence. Pickaxe absolutely need their 2 early drafted WRs to fire together, something that hasn’t happened so far this season. Pickaxe might benefit from Cam Newton’s crash this week (get well soon Cam, Pickaxe star from 2013) as it puts Kelvin Benjamin at a bit of a disadvantage for Jimmy. Thats’ not to say he can’t pick up points from Veteran Derek Anderson, who is no stranger to the NFL big game. At TE Coach Gav looks to have the upper hand with either of his picks, but yet again last week he chose the wrong one, Given Jimmy’s scoring potential he just has to get it right this time. So how will it unfold? Thursday night sees the Rams DST take on the Cardinals at home. The Cardinals are division leaders but the Rams are listed as the #1 dst, this is where i’m lost; they’ve actually let in the most points in the division, so Gav is banking that the Cardinals keep it on the ground and grind out a massive victory. Gav has a lot to see in both the Colts Texans and Bengals Browns Games early Sunday, whilst Jimmy has the choice of three, if he decides not to Gamble on Benjamin, he could have wideouts on both sides of the Washington vs Giants game if Desean Jackson is fit, most likely he’ll go for something else though and give coach Gave even more reasons to hope for a massive Bengals victory. Later on there’s a few games to choose, Gav probably watching Stafford in the Lions Vikings clash whilst Jimmy perhaps checks in on Lynch in the Seahawks 49ers clash. Its over by Monday morning though, and both teams have a chance, the odds say Jags, but for some reason the Pit predictor pendulum swings towards Pickaxe!

The real important thing though – who is who in the Fantastic 4?

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Well Mr Fantastic has to be Paul, his flexible Flush have got him to the semis, despite coming last in the toughest division

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Human Torch is Jimmy, whose Jags have been on fire all year

The Thing is Gav and his Pickaxe, he’s made it this far on brute force and ignorance, but it could be ‘clobbering time’ again

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Which leaves Ally and the Bohos as Invisible girl, certainly they’ve had the forcefields up to have the lowest points scored against them this season.

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In the other 2 games the Pit goes for Fog over the panthers and Touchdown over 69ers