Picking a lineup- Method in the madness?

Apparently there’s a science to selecting your fantasy football lineup each week. “i ain’t no guru” as someone once said, but i thought it would be therapeutic to give you my weekly routine. Perhaps it’ll help you or perhaps it’ll make you feel less like the only person using small statistical samples to base decisions on.

Week 3 opponents: Pilton Panthers

Generally i pay absolutely no attention to my opponents lineup. I have no control over my own so why worry about theirs. The only time that’s not the case is where we share QB-WR/TE on the same team. If that’s the case then it’s usually worth playing the match just to ensure you vulture points of their star.

  1. Visit http://www.fantasypros.com/. I use their myplaybook facility (free). It gives me an idea of my opponents lineup and what is the general consensus for my own lineup. I also use their target stats for receivers. It’s handy knowing who’s actually being targeted. Was that high week 2 score game planned or his he really the #1 receiver on the team now?
  2. Visit http://www.footballguys.com/. I have a subscription here and that gives me content you can’t access elsewhere. It’s good value and gives me a nice set of easy access list or more in depth content if i need it. Generally I need the in depth content. It makes me feel like i’m making informed decisions. Whether they are or not is the subject of another day!
  3. I then visit http://www.footballoutsiders.com/. Their stats aren’t the most accessible but they’re VERY good. They let you know which teams are actually performing well by averaging out performances. I find their team defense stats particularly helpful as it breaks down performances by #1, #2 and #3 WRs, TE and RB.

So how did i select this weeks lineup?

QB Andrew Luck– He’s my star player. He’ll be playing every week regardless of matchup. 15pts is the minimum i’ll expect from each week. This week should be a good match up against Jacksonville so i’m hoping for something in the low 20s as a minimum because….

RB1 Montee Ball – Ball has a tough match up against the Seahawks in Seattle. I think he’ll do ok, but I’m not expecting too much 6-10 points will make me happy, but i would be surprised if it’s around the 3-5 mark.

RB2- Joique Bell- I’m actually expecting Bell to have a better day than Ball this week. GreenBay can be run on and Bell should be the back to get the bulk of the carries. A 10 point haul should be his minimum

RBs on the bench- Toby Gerhart, Darren McFadden and CJ Anderson- Anderson is my Ball handcuff so i’m not expecting to use him. I had toyed with Gerhart or Mcfadden as my flex, but here’s why not. Gerhart was my 3rd round pick and has been a disaster. On the face of things the Colts are a good running game match-up, but that’s perception not reality. They’ve played two decent running offenses in Philadelphia and Denver and have given up just 229 yards at 3.0 avg. Jacksonville are averaging 2.5 yds per rush at the moment and are the worst rushing offense in the NFL (just 89  yards). Even when things got ugly in D.C. last week there was nothing for the Jaguars running game. Gerhart can take a well earned rest on the pine until some life returns to their attack. As for McFadden? He killed me picking up 15 pts last week, there’s a good chance he’ll do great this week, but equally he could spit out a week one 2pt performance. The Panthers are a good team. I need consistency not hope.

WR1, WR2 and FLEX- Jeremy Maclin, Kelvin Benjamin and Reggie Wayne- Maclin is the most targeted receiver in the Eagles offense. Panthers have Nick Foles therefore he’s a definite starter. He’s more of a steady scorer than a red zone threat but the matchup is good so something in the region of 8-10 points should be possible. Benjamin has been targeted 16 times this season and should be a threat against a Steelers secondary that has given up 90+ yards against #1 receivers. I have high hopes and think i can pick up 8-10 points here. Wayne is up against Jacksonville and is the #2 target after Hilton in the colts passing attack. I’d expect a decent game somewhere in the region of 6-8 pts.

TE- Gronk An elite player at the position even when injured. The game last week got ugly quick and the Pats took the opportunity to rest him. I’d prefer that not to happen again, but if he’s playing he’ll score and i think i’ll need him this week. He’s predicted to score in the 12-15 range. I’m expecting a more modest 9.

K and DST- Hauschka and Arizona Hauschka is a kicker on a winning team. I drafted him high because i wanted consistency from my kicker this year. I’ve had that so far. If he’s scoring in the 6-10 pt range i’m happy. I’m using matchup defenses this year, but not this week. The Cards are a good DST and I’m taking a risk with them against the 49ers, but I have a feeling they’ll come good…..there it’s not all about stats!

My prediction. I should be looking at a score of around 85-95 pts without TDs if my players perform to their matchups. Anything on top of this is a bonus but as we all know it’s an ART not a Science.

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2 thoughts on “Picking a lineup- Method in the madness?

  1. I actually forgot to add 4. Watch some games. It gives you answers like Anderson looks better than Ball- hence the waivers pickup. Gerhart is being punished by his line (i’ll hang on and hope they improve before he’s killed) and McFadden looks like the RB he should’ve been- he can find a spot on the bench.

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